Is Tinubu Waging a Quiet War on the Muslim North – or Is It All Coincidence?

By Mohammed Bello Doka 

Is this a carefully calibrated political recalibration ahead of 2027 — or is the Muslim North being deliberately edged out of Nigeria’s power structure, one appointment, one budget line, one silence at a time?

Two years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu rose to power on the back of a controversial Muslim–Muslim ticket, a growing unease is spreading across Northern Nigeria. The same region that absorbed political fire, international criticism, and domestic outrage to deliver victory in 2023 is now asking an uncomfortable question: has the pact been broken?

No allegations are made here. No motives are imputed. These are facts, patterns, statements and silences — laid side by side — allowing Nigerians to draw their own conclusions.

From Kingmakers to Casualties: The Vanishing Power of Muslim Northerners

Start with the visible political shifts.

One after another, key Muslim Northern figures have exited strategic positions — party leadership, defence, security oversight — often replaced by Northern Christians, Middle Belt figures, or Southern allies.

Former Kano governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, a pillar of Tinubu’s Northern alliance and national chairman of the APC, was pushed out. Official reasons ranged from health to party needs. Unofficially, it was widely acknowledged as a power reset. The result? The ruling party structure heading toward 2027 slipped from the grip of the Muslim North.

Then came the Defence Ministry. Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, former Jigawa governor and Muslim Northerner, resigned. In his place emerged a Northern Christian from Southern Kaduna, a region long positioned as a counterweight to core Muslim Northern influence.

Senate security leadership was reshuffled. Committees dissolved. Sensitive oversight quietly reassigned. Again, no accusation — but the direction of travel was impossible to miss.

Each event in isolation is defensible. Together, they look like patterned displacement.

Coincidence — or calculus?

Insecurity Everywhere, Urgency Nowhere

Now consider insecurity.

Northern Nigeria is bleeding.

Villages are emptied. Farms abandoned. Schools shut. Entire communities negotiating their survival with armed groups. In some states, local governments barely function beyond state capitals.

Yet critics increasingly point to what they describe as a lukewarm presidential posture toward Northern insecurity.

Here’s the contrast repeatedly raised in policy circles and political conversations across the North:

A single road project in Lagos is measured in trillions of naira.

The combined security votes of all 19 Northern governors do not approach that figure.

What does that say about national priorities?

Is the region producing most of the nation’s insecurity being structurally underfunded — or structurally abandoned?

If insecurity persists at its current scale, another question looms dangerously close:

> Can large parts of the North even conduct elections by 2027?

Negotiating With Bandits, Funding Instability?

Equally troubling to many Northerners is the continued reliance on the same political middlemen to negotiate with bandits — negotiations that often end with cash payments, concessions, and temporary calm.

Who benefits?

Does this approach pacify violence — or institutionalise it?

And if insecurity renders swathes of the North electorally impotent, is that an unintended consequence — or a brutal political advantage for those already saying Northern votes may no longer be necessary?

The Trump Factor: External Pressure, Internal Consequences

Recent accusations and rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump and allied Western voices have added new fuel to suspicion.

Within political circles, the argument is being quietly made that international perception, particularly around religion and security, is forcing Tinubu to “rebalance optics” — especially by elevating Christian Northerners and Southern figures in sensitive roles.

But to nervous Northern observers, it looks less like rebranding and more like displacement accelerated under foreign cover.

Is global pressure now a convenient excuse to redraw the internal religious map of power?

“Tinubu Doesn’t Need the North”: Arrogance or Strategy?

Perhaps the most incendiary element in this unfolding drama is what is being said — openly — by those close to power.

Reports persist of Tinubu’s inner circle openly boasting that the president may not need Northern votes in 2027.

On social media, the tone is even cruder:

Southern voices declare openly that Muslim Northern votes are no longer decisive

Some cheer Northern discontent as politically irrelevant

Others openly frame 2027 as a Southern consolidation project

Is this reckless bravado — or strategic messaging designed to psychologically demobilise a voting bloc?

And if these declarations are false, why hasn’t the presidency forcefully disowned them?

Silence, after all, is also a statement.

Betrayal From Within: The Complicit Northern Elite

Yet perhaps the most painful question is not about Tinubu — but about the North itself.

Where are the Northern governors? Where are the Northern ministers? Where are the Northern lawmakers?

These are men with private jets, foreign properties, and enormous personal fortunes — yet they appear incapable of challenging policies that leave their people exposed, displaced and electorally endangered.

Why?

Because confronting power threatens proximity. Because silence preserves access. Because feeding bottles matter more than bleeding communities.

As villages fall and citizens flee, Northern elites close ranks around Abuja, not around their people.

And so the Muslim North bleeds — quietly.

The Shettima Question: Is the Muslim–Muslim Ticket Already Dead?

Hovering over every appointment and silence is the unspoken question of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Calls are growing — openly — for Tinubu to replace Shettima in 2027 with a Northern Christian running mate. Some argue it’s about balance. Others call it inevitability.

Northern Muslim groups, however, see something else:

The slow dismantling of the coalition that delivered 2023

The preparation of ground for a post–Muslim North electoral strategy

A political future where the North’s role is reduced, not renegotiated

If Shettima goes, many believe, the message will be unmistakable.

Pattern, Pressure—or Quiet War?

There is no leaked memo. No fiery declaration. No official war.

But politics is rarely announced. It is felt.

It is felt in budget lines. In appointments. In silences. In insecurity unmanaged. In elites unmoved. In voices online mocking Northern relevance. In whispers from inner circles calculating electoral math without the North.

So Nigerians must ask — fearlessly — the question many are already whispering:

> Is President Tinubu waging a quiet war on the Muslim North — or are we watching coincidence pile upon coincidence until neglect becomes destiny?

The answer may define not just 2027 — but the future cohesion of the Nigerian state.

And history has shown, again and again:

when a region feels disposable, the consequences are never quiet.