Nigeria is living through a dangerous moment in its democratic journey — a moment defined not by tanks on the streets or decrees on radio, but by applause, defections, slogans, and silence. History teaches us that democracies rarely die with a bang; they are more often auctioned away by elites who swear loyalty upward while abandoning the people below.
Today, almost everyone in power claims to be standing on one mandate. The question Nigerians must now ask — urgently and without fear — is simple and unsettling: if they all stand on his mandate, who is standing on the people’s mandate?
The Broken Covenant
In every democracy, elections create a covenant:
the people give power; leaders return service, protection, and accountability.
That covenant has been brutally broken.
Across Nigeria, political elites have defected en masse, abandoning the parties and platforms on which citizens voted for them. Governors, senators, lawmakers, and former power brokers have crossed over not in response to new ideas or superior policies, but in obedience to power. With each defection comes the same ritual chant — “on your mandate we stand.”
But a mandate is not a hymn.
It is not transferable.
And it does not flow from one man to all others.
A governor’s mandate comes from the people of his state.
A senator’s mandate comes from his district.
A lawmaker’s mandate comes from his constituency.
When elected officials publicly declare loyalty to another person’s mandate, they are not merely flattering power — they are confessing abandonment of their own voters.
Politics of Survival, Not Service
While politicians queue for favours in Abuja, Nigeria bleeds.
- Poverty deepens, swallowing millions.
- Insecurity spreads — villages are razed, citizens slaughtered, kidnappings normalised.
- Illiteracy grows, especially among the young.
- Inflation eats wages that barely exist.
- Unemployment condemns a generation to despair.
Yet instead of standing with their people in hunger, fear, and hardship, political elites have chosen to stand with power.
They watch as their constituents are buried.
They issue condolences, then board planes to defection rallies.
They abandon the poor, the displaced, the uneducated — and sell their mandate to the throne.
This is not governance.
It is self-preservation disguised as politics.
As the philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau warned:
“The people who are allowed to vote once every few years are otherwise enslaved.”
The Silence of Institutions
A functioning democracy relies on institutions that debate, restrain, and resist excess. What we are witnessing instead is institutional retreat.
- The legislature, particularly the Senate, increasingly avoids robust debate on sensitive national questions, stepping down discussions and punishing dissent.
- The judiciary, meant to stand aloof from politics, found itself embarrassed by the playing of a partisan anthem at a judges’ conference — a symbol, however denied, of dangerous familiarity with power.
- Oversight bodies grow timid where courage is required.
When institutions stop saying “no,” power stops listening.
Hannah Arendt captured this moment perfectly:
“The most radical revolutionary will become a conservative the day after the revolution.”
In Nigeria’s case, today’s defectors are tomorrow’s enforcers — eager servants of a system that will discard them the moment they are no longer useful.
The Road to the Party-State
History is unambiguous: one-party or near one-party systems end badly, especially in large, poor, diverse societies.
Nigeria is:
- multi-ethnic,
- multi-religious,
- deeply unequal,
- security-fragile,
- and approaching 250 million people.
Centralised political dominance in such a society is not stability — it is stored violence.
True one-party states rarely respect term limits. Power concentrates, dissent is criminalised, institutions hollow out, and eventually pressure explodes. Collapse does not come because people love chaos; it comes because peaceful change is blocked.
As Lord Acton famously warned:
“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
Table 1: The Diagnosis — How Democracies Slide into Collapse
| Pattern | What Happens |
|---|---|
| Mass defections | Opposition collapses, accountability disappears |
| Loyalty rituals | Allegiance replaces representation |
| Legislative silence | Debate becomes “disloyalty” |
| Politicised symbols | Institutions lose public trust |
| Concentrated power | Law yields to preference |
| Blocked change | Pressure turns violent |
This is not prophecy.
It is pattern recognition.
Table 2: The Solution — Democratic Change as National Self-Defence
The antidote to a one-party state is not violence.
It is peaceful democratic change of government.
Not because the alternative leaders are saints.
But because alternation of power keeps democracy alive.
Why Peaceful Change Matters
- It shatters the myth of inevitability.
- It reminds leaders they can be voted out.
- It restores institutional courage.
- It prevents dictatorship before it hardens.
Historical Proof That Elections Saved Nations
- Ghana (2000, 2008): Peaceful transfers of power ended coups and stabilised democracy.
- Senegal (2000): The defeat of a 40-year ruling party prevented authoritarian entrenchment.
- Mexico (2000): A 71-year party monopoly collapsed peacefully through the ballot, not blood.
- Zambia (1991): Elections averted likely violent upheaval under one-party rule.
- The Gambia (2016): Regional pressure enforced an election result, ending dictatorship without civil war.
In each case, voters did not choose perfection.
They chose rotation — and saved their countries.
Why Nigeria Must Choose the Ballot, Not the Bullet
Nigeria does not need messiahs.
It needs proof that no one owns power permanently.
A peaceful democratic change would:
- slow defections,
- revive opposition,
- re-empower citizens,
- restrain future leaders,
- and protect generations yet unborn.
Those who sell their people’s mandate today will be the first casualties of tomorrow’s tyranny. Dictators do not reward loyalty forever; they consume it.
As George Orwell reminded us:
“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”
The Final Question
If leaders abandon their people for power,
if institutions bow instead of balance,
if mandates are traded like currency,
then Nigerians must decide:
Will this nation defend democracy with the ballot — or mourn it with blood?
Because history is clear:
people may endure hunger, but they do not endure permanent powerlessness.
And when no one stands on the people’s mandate,
the people eventually stand up themselves.
My name is Mohammed Bello Doka, am not a ghost, nor Elrufai pseudoname I'm on twitter @Doka3010
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