Nigeria’s inflation rate may have eased in recent months, but experts warn that citizens should not mistake this for price stability. The recent decline in headline inflation — from 21.9 percent in July to 20.1 percent in August and 18 percent in September, according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data — merely reflects a slowdown in the rate at which prices are increasing, not a reduction in the prices themselves.
Economic analysts describe this as “disinflation” — a situation where inflation continues but at a slower pace. This means that the cost of living is still climbing, though less sharply than before. The Tinubu administration has hailed the decline as an encouraging sign of economic recovery, but economists urge caution, saying the figures may not reflect true relief for households facing high food, transport, and housing costs.
According to data reviewed by Daily Trust, food inflation — which has been the most painful burden for Nigerians — dropped from 22.7 percent in July to 16.9 percent in September. The twelve-month average inflation also slowed from 24.7 percent in August to 23.5 percent in September.
Experts attribute the development to tighter monetary measures by the CBN, reduced money supply, and foreign borrowing that temporarily stabilized the naira. However, they warn that the government’s reliance on external loans and currency support mechanisms could make the progress short-lived. If foreign debt mounts or the naira weakens further, inflation may rebound.
Despite the modest improvement, the inflation rate remains above the 15 percent target projected for 2025. Many Nigerians say their purchasing power is still eroding as wages lag behind rising costs. Businesses also continue to struggle with high input and borrowing costs, which push up the prices of goods and services.
Economists insist that true relief will only come through a consistent policy mix — combining fiscal discipline, monetary restraint, and a credible exchange rate framework. Until then, Nigeria’s “disinflation” remains a cautious victory — one that looks promising on paper but still feels painful in the marketplace.