Leadership of the North 2027 and Beyond: A Critique of Pure Reason

By Mohammed Bello Doka 

As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 and 2031 presidential elections, the North finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with a leadership vacuum that has left its political elite scrambling to position themselves as the region’s saviors. The expiration of President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure in 2023 marked not only the end of an era but also the unraveling of a leadership structure that had, for better or worse, provided the North with a rallying figure. The question now is: who will step into the shoes of Northern leadership, and more importantly, do they even fit?

A Fractured Political Landscape

The Northern political space today is fragmented, with no singular leader commanding the widespread loyalty that Buhari once enjoyed. Unlike the South, where political heavyweights like President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have built strong, enduring political structures, the North is witnessing a chaotic jostle for dominance. In this melee, several figures have emerged, each with their own ambitions, networks, and strategies, yet none with the definitive capacity to unify the region.

At the heart of this contest are seasoned political gladiators like Vice President Kashim Shettima, National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Kano Governor Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President Ahmed Lawan, former Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello, and Major Hamza Al-Mustapha. Each of them harbors ambitions of either direct political ascendancy or kingmaking. However, despite their individual strengths, their collective failure to build a singular, unifying front exposes the deeper crisis of Northern leadership—a region still searching for its next political messiah.

The Old Guard: Contenders or Pretenders?

Kashim Shettima: The Vice President’s Calculated Game

Vice President Kashim Shettima is perhaps the most strategically positioned among the Northern elites. As the highest-ranking Northern politician in the country today, logic dictates that he should be the natural successor to Northern political dominance. However, Shettima’s national acceptability remains questionable. While he enjoys goodwill in Borno and parts of the North-East, his influence in the North-West and North-Central remains weak.

Shettima’s biggest challenge is that he lacks the cult-like followership Buhari enjoyed. His tenure as Vice President has also been largely overshadowed by President Tinubu’s dominance in governance, leaving many to wonder whether he can truly emerge as the Northern flagbearer when the time comes. That said, his intelligence, political tact, and ability to navigate power circles cannot be ignored.

Atiku Abubakar: The Perennial Presidential Contender

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar remains a formidable political force in the North, but his repeated attempts at the presidency have left many fatigued. Since 2007, he has contested nearly every election, often switching political parties in the process. While Atiku retains significant financial muscle and political influence, particularly in the North-East, his inability to build lasting alliances within the North and across Nigeria remains his greatest weakness.

More importantly, age is no longer on his side. With the increasing demand for younger leadership, Atiku's relevance in 2027 and beyond remains uncertain. However, his ability to influence the outcome of Northern politics, even as a kingmaker, should not be underestimated.

Ahmed Lawan: The Silent Operator

Former Senate President Ahmed Lawan, though not as flamboyant as other Northern politicians, has maintained a steady presence in Nigeria’s political scene. His tenure in the Senate positioned him as a stabilizing figure, but his influence outside the legislative chamber remains limited.

Lawan's key strength lies in his ability to maneuver within the corridors of power. However, his lack of grassroots appeal and his close association with the APC establishment make it difficult for him to emerge as the North’s rallying figure. If anything, he is more likely to play a behind-the-scenes role rather than directly vie for leadership.

Yahaya Bello: The Delusional Young Turk

Former Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello fancies himself a major player in Northern politics, but in reality, his influence remains largely confined to Kogi State. Bello’s presidential ambition in 2023 was met with ridicule, as his record in governance left much to be desired.

Despite his attempts to brand himself as the face of youth leadership in the North, Bello lacks credibility. His tenure in Kogi was marred by allegations of corruption, poor governance, and heavy-handed tactics. If he has any role to play in 2027 and beyond, it will likely be as a political mercenary rather than a serious contender.

Nuhu Ribadu: From Security to Politics?

As National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu operates within one of the most sensitive positions in the country. While he once commanded national admiration as the pioneer chairman of the EFCC, his political relevance has significantly dwindled. His alignment with Tinubu’s administration could either be an advantage or a liability, depending on how security challenges in the North unfold in the coming years.

Ribadu is respected but lacks grassroots appeal. The average Northern voter does not see him as a political leader but rather as a bureaucrat. If he harbors ambitions for greater political influence, he must build a stronger connection with the masses.

Nasir El-Rufai: The Perennial Political Chess Player

Few Northern politicians command as much controversy as Nasir El-Rufai. The former Kaduna governor is a master strategist, but his divisive rhetoric and governance style have made him as many enemies as he has allies.

El-Rufai's name frequently surfaces in political discussions, but the question remains: does he have the broad-based support required to become the face of Northern leadership? His fallout with President Tinubu and the APC establishment, coupled with allegations of religious and ethnic bias, significantly weaken his chances of becoming the North’s consensus leader. However, his ability to reinvent himself cannot be underestimated.

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso: The Kwankwasiyya Movement’s Limited Reach

Kwankwaso remains a powerful figure in Kano and its environs, but his influence beyond that is limited. The Kwankwasiyya movement is vibrant, but it is not enough to secure the Northern leadership mantle. Moreover, Kwankwaso’s political trajectory has been unpredictable—switching between parties and alliances, which makes him difficult to trust as a unifying figure.

His best chance at national leadership may lie in forming alliances with more widely accepted figures, but even that is a long shot given his history of political betrayals.

Hamza Al-Mustapha: A Dark Horse?

Major Hamza Al-Mustapha, a former military officer and Chief Security Officer to the late General Sani Abacha, has attempted to carve a political path for himself, but his credibility remains questionable. While he enjoys a cult following among certain segments of the North, his past remains a heavy burden.

The Young Stars: A New Generation or Political Puppets?

While the old guard continues its power struggle, a new generation of Northern figures is emerging. Among them are social media influencers like Dan Bello, a Tiktoker and journalist who has built a strong youth following, and legal minds like Barrister Bulama Bukarti, a vocal advocate for good governance.

However, these young voices, despite their growing influence, have yet to demonstrate the organizational strength needed to translate popularity into political power. Many of them remain outside the traditional power circles, making it difficult for them to challenge the status quo.

The Leadership Vacuum: Who Fills It?

The North’s biggest challenge today is the absence of a unifying leader. If the region is to reclaim its political dominance, it must produce a leader with broad-based appeal—one who can command respect across the North-East, North-West, and North-Central. However, with the current crop of politicians more focused on self-interest than regional development, the North risks further fragmentation.

As 2027 approaches, alliances will be tested, betrayals will occur, and new players may yet emerge. But one thing is clear: if the North fails to produce a consensus leader, it risks being sidelined in national politics. And for a region that has long dominated Nigeria’s power structure, that is a dangerous prospect.