In the swirling political landscape of Nigeria, the name Akinwumi Adesina has re-emerged as a subject of intense speculation. The President of the African Development Bank (AfDB) recently set tongues wagging when he hinted at his willingness to serve Nigeria in any capacity, including, perhaps, the highest office in the land. His statement, “I will be available to serve in any capacity, globally, in Africa, anywhere—including in my own country, Nigeria,” has been widely interpreted as an overture toward the 2027 presidential race.
For a man who has spent the last decade building a reputation as a technocrat rather than a politician, the question arises—what does an Adesina candidacy mean for Nigeria? More importantly, is he being primed by unseen forces, both within and outside the country, to challenge the current administration in a high-stakes battle for power?
The Strengths of Adesina
Adesina’s record at the AfDB is impressive. Since assuming office in 2015, he has championed infrastructural development, agriculture, and economic policies that have earned him global recognition. His tenure as Nigeria’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development from 2010 to 2015 saw groundbreaking initiatives such as the Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS), which eliminated corrupt middlemen and ensured direct support for farmers.
Internationally, he is respected for his economic acumen. His leadership at the AfDB has positioned him as a figure capable of navigating Nigeria’s economic quagmire. Many see him as a man with the intellectual capacity to drive Nigeria toward prosperity, particularly in areas of industrialization, food security, and financial stability.
The Challenges and Weaknesses
However, Adesina’s Achilles' heel lies in his lack of deep political structures and grassroots connections. Nigeria’s presidential elections are rarely won on competence alone. The political terrain is rough, requiring alliances, foot soldiers, and strategic maneuvering that only seasoned politicians have mastered.
Adesina’s elite background and limited engagement in retail politics could be a stumbling block. Can he connect with the average Nigerian beyond policy speeches? Can he navigate the murky waters of Nigerian politics where godfathers, kingmakers, and political heavyweights determine who gets what?
Moreover, his tenure at the AfDB was not without controversy. In 2020, he faced an ethics probe following allegations of favoritism and weak governance, though he was eventually cleared. Nonetheless, in a cutthroat political environment, opponents will likely dig up these issues to undermine his credibility.
A Pawn in a Bigger Political Game?
Beyond his strengths and weaknesses, the bigger question is: Who is really behind the Adesina-for-President narrative? There are strong indications that certain external forces, both local and international, may be positioning him as a counterforce to the current administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The West, particularly institutions that have closely worked with Adesina, may see him as a reliable technocrat who could protect their economic interests in Nigeria. With global financial institutions increasingly concerned about Nigeria’s fiscal policies, could they be quietly supporting Adesina as a preferred candidate over a continuation of Tinubu’s policies?
Domestically, discontented political actors who feel sidelined by Tinubu’s government may be looking for an alternative candidate to rally around. Adesina, with his clean image and economic credentials, could be the perfect figurehead for opposition elements looking to destabilize the current regime.
Lessons From the Past
History has shown that technocrats with no political base often struggle in Nigerian politics. In 2019, former CBN Governor Charles Soludo was widely expected to contest for the presidency, but he opted for the Anambra governorship instead. Even former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, despite his intellectual brilliance and technocratic appeal, failed to secure the APC ticket in 2023 due to lack of grassroots support.
If Adesina does indeed enter the race, can he avoid the pitfalls that have befallen similar candidates before him?
The Road Ahead
Adesina’s journey, if he chooses to run, will be fraught with obstacles. He will need to build strong alliances, secure party backing, and convince Nigerians that he is not a foreign-backed project meant to derail the country’s current trajectory. He will also have to answer critical questions:
Is he truly prepared for the cutthroat world of Nigerian politics?
Will he be able to connect with everyday Nigerians beyond boardroom discussions?
Can he avoid being used as a tool by internal and external forces seeking to upend the current government?
For now, his statement remains an invitation for speculation. Whether he formally declares or not, his name will continue to feature prominently in discussions about Nigeria’s political future. One thing is certain—if Akinwumi Adesina chooses to enter the 2027 race, he will have to fight harder than he ever has before.
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