by Mohammed Bello Doka
8 June, 2026.
The most elementary duty of any government is the protection of lives and property. This is not a matter of policy preference or political ideology; it is the very foundation upon which the social contract rests. When a state cannot secure its citizens, that contract collapses into irrelevance. Three years into the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigerians are bleeding, dying, and disappearing at a scale that defies rationalization or logic. Yet, apologists for this government—self-styled data analysts and All Progressives Congress defenders—cling to a single, dishonest refrain: insecurity did not begin under Tinubu. This argument is not merely an attempt at deflection. It is an explicit admission of failure, a relegation of constitutional responsibility, and an exposure of the irresponsible character that now governs the nation. To suggest that origins excuse current carnage is to confess that this administration has abdicated its primary mandate—and by extension, its legitimacy. Even if insecurity existed before, the question Nigerians must confront is not where the fire started, but who has poured petrol on the flames. By every measurable metric, the answer is clear: insecurity has not only continued but dramatically worsened under President Tinubu’s watch.
The facts, drawn from verifiable sources, paint a picture of unmitigated catastrophe that has deteriorated rather than improved. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics cited by security expert Professor Oyesoji Aremu, Nigeria recorded approximately 2.2 million kidnapping incidents within a single year, with households paying an estimated N2.2 trillion in ransom. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project has consistently documented thousands of fatalities since May 2023, but the most recent figures from Amnesty International are even more harrowing: between January and March 2026 alone, no fewer than 1,100 persons were abducted across the country, a figure the organization concedes is likely higher due to widespread underreporting in remote communities. In Borno State, suspected Boko Haram insurgents abducted over 400 residents from Ngoshe town in Gwoza Local Government Area on March 3, 2026. In Kwara State, approximately 200 persons were killed while 176 others were abducted during an attack on Woro village in Kaiama Local Government Area on February 3, 2026. In Zamfara State, about 150 persons, mostly women and children, were abducted in early April 2026 from communities in Bukkuyum Local Government Area. In Kaduna State, 30 worshippers were abducted from churches in Kachia Local Government Area on March 22, 2026, following an earlier incident in January where 166 persons were kidnapped during attacks on churches in Kajuru Local Government Area.
The school abduction crisis has returned with a vengeance. Between May 13 and 15, 2026, at least 82 pupils were abducted in separate attacks in Borno and Oyo states. In Oyo State, gunmen carried out coordinated raids on multiple schools in Oriire Local Government Area, abducting approximately 40 pupils and their teachers. The Defence Headquarters linked the Oyo kidnappings to the JAS terror group, which had been pushed out of other regions by military pressure. The National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, responded by blaming the Peoples Democratic Party for insecurity inherited from previous administrations—a claim that opposition figures quickly dismissed as revisionism, noting that Tinubu inherited security challenges from his APC predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, not from the PDP. This internal contradiction within the ruling party’s defense exposes the bankruptcy of their argument: if insecurity was inherited from Buhari, then it did, in fact, begin under an APC government, not the PDP. The apologists cannot keep their story straight.
The most damning evidence of deterioration comes from the Global Terrorism Index 2026, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace. Nigeria has climbed to fourth position among the countries most impacted by terrorism globally, behind only Pakistan, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This marks a steady and alarming deterioration from its sixth position in 2025 and eighth place in both 2023 and 2024. The report reveals that terror attacks in Nigeria increased by 43 percent, from 120 incidents in 2024 to 171 in 2025. Deaths from terrorism surged by 46 percent, reaching 750 fatalities in 2025—the highest death toll since 2020. Civilians remain the primary targets, making up 67 percent of fatalities, a significant increase compared to 39 percent in 2020. ISWAP has emerged as the deadliest group in the country, responsible for over half of all attacks and deaths. The report explicitly states, In 2025, Nigeria rose two places in the Index, reflecting the significant increase in terrorist activity in the country. This is not a problem that is being managed or contained. This is a crisis that is actively spiraling downward on President Tinubu’s watch. Between 2023 and May 2025, at least 10,217 people were killed by armed groups in northern Nigeria. In the first half of 2025 alone, at least 2,266 people were killed by bandits and insurgents, already exceeding the total for all of 2024, which stood at 2,194. In 2024, 2,452 people were kidnapped, a 31 percent increase over the 1,878 recorded in 2023. The trend line points inexorably in one direction: worse.
What makes this crisis infinitely more troubling is the response—or rather, the performance of deflection, blame-shifting, and conspiracy theorizing—from the highest echelons of the political class. President Tinubu himself has suggested, both directly and through surrogates, that his political enemies are orchestrating violence to remove him from office. In comments that have circulated widely on social media, a supporter echoed the President’s position, stating, When Tinubu said that they are trying to use insecurity to push him out, I agree with him somehow. That means there’s a certain person that is bigger than this country that is pushing all this. For a sitting President to view the massacre and abduction of his citizens primarily as a political plot against his person is an extraordinary display of narcissism and a profound dereliction of duty. It signals to security forces that their mission is to protect the regime, not the people.
Even more staggering is the intervention of the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio. At a time when families are burying their loved ones and communities are living in perpetual terror, Akpabio claimed that the surge in violent incidents is linked to the approaching 2027 presidential elections. Speaking during a plenary session, he stated, You’re seeing insecurity today, it is even increasing because election is coming. As soon as the election is over, watch out, the first two weeks, you’ll not hear any single bomb blast. He further alleged that opposition elements are sponsoring bombings and insecurity to distract President Tinubu, arguing that some forces are uncomfortable with the growing political strength of the ruling party. This statement is an explosive indictment. It suggests one of two possibilities: either the state possesses the capacity to stop the violence but has chosen to weaponize insecurity for political gain, or the government is so utterly weak and compromised that it cannot stop phantom political sponsors. Neither interpretation inspires confidence. Both are confessions of illegitimacy. The former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, has correctly observed that the government’s counter-terrorism strategy is not evolving at the same pace as the threats confronting the nation, stating, The terrorists are learning from every attack. They study their successes and failures. They refine their tactics. They identify vulnerabilities. They adapt and strike again. The question Nigerians must ask is simple: Why isn’t the government doing the same?
The Defence Minister, Christopher Musa, recently rated the administration’s security performance between 65 and 70 percent as the government marked three years in office, claiming that terrorism had significantly declined and was now largely limited to isolated incidents such as kidnappings. But this claim collapses under the weight of evidence. If terrorism has been replaced by mass abductions, what comfort does that distinction offer the 2.2 million households who have paid ransom? What solace does it provide the parents of children abducted from their school desks? The Global Terrorism Index explicitly states that terrorism deaths hit their highest level since 2020, directly contradicting the Minister’s assertion. The minister himself acknowledged that school abductions remain a serious concern, describing kidnapping as not only a security issue but a reflection of deeper societal problems, including a breakdown in family values. To blame family values for a national security crisis is to abdicate institutional responsibility entirely. The government has spent trillions of naira on security—N4.91 trillion for defence and security in 2025, and N5.41 trillion in 2026—yet the attacks continue unabated. Alarmingly, the Permanent Secretary of the Office of the National Security Adviser disclosed that capital votes allocated to security agencies in the 2024 and 2025 budgets were never released, stating, This has impacted very negatively on their capacity to procure materials and modern security equipment, as well as their operational capabilities. One is forced to ask: where has this money gone, and why has the government failed to release funds meant for equipment while insecurity explodes? Even the resources budgeted have not reached those on the front lines.
The spread of violence tells its own story of deterioration. What was once geographically confined to the far north is now pressing against the borders of the cities and the south. According to Global Rights Nigeria, tracking data reveals that in the first quarter of 2026 alone, at least 2,063 people were killed and 1,048 people abducted across Nigeria, with rural banditry remaining the main driver of violent incidents. The National Chairman of the Peoples Redemption Party, Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has stated bluntly, President Tinubu has no handle on escalating violence. Every part of Nigeria is now vulnerable to insecurity. Children, toddlers in school have been stolen. He added, President Tinubu has spectacularly failed to protect anybody. Every inch of Nigeria is now vulnerable to insecurity. This is not hyperbole. This is the assessment of a seasoned political leader watching the fabric of the nation unravel.
To argue that insecurity did not begin under Tinubu is to confess that the government is irrelevant. But the evidence goes further: insecurity has become deadlier, more widespread, and more brazen under his leadership. The Global Terrorism Index ranking has worsened. The death toll has climbed to its highest point in half a decade. Kidnappings have increased by 31 percent in a single year. School abductions have returned with horrifying frequency. Violence has spread to previously stable regions. The responsibility of a leader is to solve problems, not to provide historical lectures on their origin. The Tinubu administration has failed its most basic test—and by every available metric, it has made the security situation significantly worse. The social contract is broken, and every blood-soaked statistic, every abducted child, and every ransom payment is a signature on the verdict of incompetence. Nigerians deserve better than deflection. They deserve better than conspiracy theories. They deserve a government that protects them. This administration has failed to provide even that.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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