by Mohammed Bello Doka
On May 29, 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu stood before Nigerians and promised renewal. What followed instead—documented by Reuters, BBC, DW, Human Rights Watch, the World Bank, PwC, the International Monetary Fund, ICIR, IFRI, SBM Intelligence, Lagos Chamber of Commerce, and other verifiable sources—has been the most punishing economic shock to ordinary Nigerians in decades. Citizens were told the pain would be “necessary” and “temporary.” Nearly three years later, the data tell a colder story: poverty has exploded, hunger has deepened, debt has become unsustainable, insecurity has turned into an economic weapon, and elite fiscal excess has mocked the sacrifices demanded of the masses.
This is not a partisan lament. It is a ledger—dates, policies, amounts, names, places—showing how decisions since May 29, 2023 have combined to break households, hollow out production, and push the state toward fragility. The conclusion is stark: continuity beyond 2027 risks systemic failure. The remedy must be democratic. Nigeria must stop this course with votes, not violence.
The Shock Doctrine Arrives
The first blow landed immediately. In June 2023, the Tinubu administration abruptly removed the petrol subsidy. The result was instant and brutal. Pump prices surged by over 600%, reaching around ₦1,200 per litre in many states. Transportation costs multiplied overnight. Food prices followed. School fees rose. Healthcare became costlier. According to Reuters (May 2025), the move triggered the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. The BBC (February 2024) called it Nigeria’s gravest economic crisis in decades. DW (January 2026) documented how households took “extreme measures” as inflation surged through 2024–2025.
There was no effective cushion. Palliatives were late, uneven, or missing. The promise that subsidy savings would be transparently redeployed to protect the poor collapsed under scrutiny. Nigerians did not experience “temporary pain.” They experienced a structural shock.
Currency Collapse and the Inflation Spiral
The second blow came from foreign exchange policy. Exchange-rate liberalisation and naira devaluation saw the currency slide from about ₦460/$ to as weak as ₦1,500/$. Import costs ballooned. Markets distorted. Arbitrage thrived. In dollar terms, Nigeria’s GDP shrank, and the country slipped from Africa’s largest economy to fourth.
Human Rights Watch (October 2024) linked the depreciation directly to inflation that climbed to 34.19% by June 2024. Food inflation breached 40%. For households, inflation became a silent tax. Meals were skipped. Proteins disappeared. Ceremonies were cancelled. The ICIR (August 2025) reported a decimation of the middle class. Stabilisation on paper did not translate into relief at home.
Power Without Light, Industry Without Oxygen
Electricity policy compounded the damage. Subsidy reductions and tariff hikes—threefold in some cases—arrived without commensurate improvements in supply. Over 90 million Nigerians still lacked reliable electricity. Energy costs crushed small and medium-sized enterprises. Manufacturers bled.
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (May 2024) warned that high fuel and power costs, coupled with tight credit and rising interest rates, were forcing factory closures and job losses. Nigeria’s production base weakened. Unemployment and underemployment worsened. A reform meant to unlock growth instead throttled it.
Farms Under Fire, Hunger Spreads
Agriculture—Nigeria’s employer of last resort—did not escape. Diesel and fertiliser costs soared. Transport became prohibitive. Insecurity ravaged food belts in the North-West and North-Central. Growth slowed to 0.18% in Q1 2024. Documented losses were devastating: 76% of tomato output, 25% of maize, and 34% of catfish lost to violence, displacement, and logistics breakdowns.
Hunger followed. With food inflation above 40%, millions could no longer afford three meals a day. This was not climate alone. It was policy interacting with insecurity—now priced into the economy.
Poverty: The Core Failure
The numbers are unforgiving. The World Bank projected 139 million Nigerians in poverty by 2025, up from 81 million in 2019 and 87 million in 2023. PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 warned that up to 141 million people—about 62% of the population—could be poor by end-2026, driven by weak income growth, high food-budget vulnerability (poor households spending up to 70% on food), and inadequate social protection. Rural poverty hit 72%; in Sokoto State, it reached 91%. Multidimensional poverty afflicted 133+ million Nigerians.
This was not inevitable. It was the outcome of choices made without safeguards.
While Nigerians Suffered, the State Spent Big
As citizens tightened belts, the state loosened its own.
First, the administration approved a ₦8 trillion write-off of debts owed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to the Federation Account, even as audits questioned unaccounted trillions and vast sums sunk into non-functional refineries. Former Anambra governor Peter Obi called the decision financial recklessness, noting it exceeded combined 2025 budgets for education, health, and agriculture (about ₦7.1 trillion) and could have funded millions of jobs.
Second, federal spending exploded—from ₦6 trillion to ₦34 trillion in 24 months—while revenues lagged. Debt service climbed to about ₦12 trillion. Deficits widened, including a ₦2.66 trillion shortfall in Q2. Borrowing filled the gap.
Third came the optics that burned public trust. The 2024 budget carried over ₦512 billion in frivolous items across more than 24 MDAs, including massive Service-Wide Votes. The House of Representatives imported 360 luxury SUVs at a cost of ₦57.6 billion. A ₦5 billion allocation for a presidential yacht appeared in a ₦2.17 trillion supplementary budget (later reallocated after public outrage). The presidency budgeted ₦2.9 billion for presidential SUVs and ₦1.5 billion for vehicles linked to the First Lady’s office. ₦4 billion went to renovate presidential quarters. Billions were committed to luxury jets and yachts, sums that exceeded the 2024 primary healthcare budget.
Fourth, the borrowing addiction persisted. A ₦1.15 trillion fresh domestic loan was approved as total public debt climbed toward ₦175 trillion. By mid-2025, debt stood around ₦152.39–₦152.40 trillion, with projections toward ₦187.79 trillion. Debt servicing consumed 60–70% of federal revenues, squeezing out capital spending on schools, hospitals, roads, and power.
Fifth, transparency frayed. Claims of ₦330 billion in social investment to 8 million households collided with questions about beneficiary lists and controls, especially amid scandals in the humanitarian sector. Trust evaporated.
The message to citizens was unmistakable: sacrifice below, indulgence above.
Insecurity Becomes an Economic Weapon
Violence escalated as livelihoods collapsed. Banditry, jihadist attacks, kidnappings, and school closures spread. SBM Intelligence recorded Nigeria’s Africa Country Instability Risk Index rising to 52 in 2025—a critical category, up from 39 in 2023—driven by mass kidnappings and the geographic expansion of armed groups. Insecurity choked agriculture, pushed up food prices, closed schools, and eroded investor confidence. It was no longer a side issue. It was a core economic variable.
The Mirage of “Stabilisation”
Defenders of the administration point to late-2025 data showing inflation easing toward the mid-teens. But context matters. The easing came after unprecedented welfare destruction. Consumption fell by about ₦21.33 trillion between 2021 and 2024. Real wages collapsed. Poverty kept rising.
The World Bank noted that reforms failed to lift households. IFRI warned of distortions and inefficiencies. Nigeria’s recovery existed on spreadsheets, not in kitchens.
Fiscal Unsustainability, Plainly Stated
The International Monetary Fund has been explicit: without a major pivot—broader domestic revenue, restored oil output, disciplined spending—Nigeria’s fiscal path is unsustainable. Oil revenues have been crippled by theft, vandalism, and underinvestment. Currency depreciation multiplied external debt costs. Budgets grew more ambitious even as deficits widened, including a projected ₦23.85 trillion deficit in the 2026 budget.
This is not reform fatigue. It is arithmetic.
Why Another Four Years Risk Breakdown
Extend this trajectory to 2031 and the risks compound. Poverty entrenches above 140 million. Debt service continues to swallow revenues. Insecurity further disrupts production. A youth bulge meets joblessness and hunger. Protests become more frequent. Governance capacity erodes. Analysts warn of a gradual descent toward fragility—where the state struggles to provide basics and order frays.
This is not alarmism. It is trend extrapolation grounded in mainstream data.
Why the World Should Care
Nigeria is systemically important. Collapse would not be local.
Mass migration would strain neighbours—Niger, Chad, Benin—and destabilise the Sahel. Terror networks would exploit vacuums across the Lake Chad Basin and Gulf of Guinea. Energy markets would shudder if 5–10% of global light sweet crude were disrupted. Trade and remittances—about $25 billion annually—would falter. Humanitarian systems would face a food crisis threatening 25 million people.
Nigeria’s failure would export disorder.
The Democratic Imperative
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. Violence would finish what misgovernance has begun. Silence would license collapse. The Constitution offers a different path.
Elections are not a slogan. They are the last firewall. Nigerians must insist—peacefully, lawfully—that leadership answers to outcomes, not excuses; to kitchens, not conferences; to votes, not bullets.
The record since May 29, 2023 is written in prices, hunger, debt, and fear. It is also written in budgets, write-offs, SUVs, yachts, and loans. Denial will not erase it. Only democratic change can.
Nigeria must choose renewal over ruin. And it must do so with votes, not bullets.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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