By Usman Abdulkadir Taleeki
In my column this week, I examine the political turmoil currently unfolding in Kano State, one of the most politically important states in Nigeria. At the moment, few political issues in the country generate as much debate as the crisis in the Kano political arena.
Politics, especially at the highest level in Nigeria, is not built on emotions, personal history, or loyalty. It is built on interests, power calculations, and numbers. Political alliances exist for a reason. Once that reason disappears, the alliance often collapses. This simple truth is the foundation for understanding the political tension currently unfolding in Kano State.
Kano is not just another state in Nigeria. It is one of the most electorally powerful states in the federation. Any major political movement in Kano has implications far beyond its borders. That is why the growing reports that Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf may defect from the NNPP to the ruling APC have generated serious national attention. These reports are not idle rumours. They are supported by visible political movements, silence where clarity is expected, and statements from actors within both camps. The strong public condemnation of the move by Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso further confirms that something significant is happening.
To fully understand this situation, one must first understand the political relationship between Abba Kabir Yusuf and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Abba did not emerge as a political figure through independent political struggle. His entire political journey is tied to Kwankwaso’s mentorship. In 1999, Kwankwaso brought him into government as a personal assistant when he became governor. When Kwankwaso was later appointed minister, Abba followed him. When Kwankwaso became Chairman of the NDDC, Abba remained by his side. During Kwankwaso’s second term as governor in 2011, Abba was elevated to Principal Private Secretary and later appointed Commissioner for Works. In 2015, Kwankwaso gave him the senatorial ticket. In 2019 and again in 2023, Kwankwaso handed him the gubernatorial ticket. This long chain of political patronage makes it clear that Abba Kabir Yusuf is a product of a political structure, not a political accident.
This history raises an unavoidable question. Why would a governor abandon the structure that produced him? Supporters of the defection argue that internal crisis within the NNPP is forcing the governor’s hand. However, this explanation is weak when examined closely. Internal crises are a permanent feature of Nigerian political parties. The APC, PDP, and even smaller parties are constantly dealing with factional disputes. If internal crisis were the real issue, the logical response would be negotiation, reform, or even temporary disengagement. The insistence on APC as the only alternative suggests that the crisis narrative is more of a justification than a real cause.
To understand why APC appears attractive, we must examine the nature of power under the current administration. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a highly Deceptive politician. He builds alliances aggressively before elections and dismantles competing structures after elections. His approach to power is transactional. Support is rewarded, but only for as long as it remains useful. Once an ally’s strategic value declines, political protection weakens.
Recent political history provides several examples.
Nasir El Rufai was one of the most influential northern politicians who stood firmly behind Tinubu when many northern elites were hesitant. He defended power rotation, mobilized northern support, and absorbed political backlash. Yet, shortly after Tinubu assumed office, El Rufai was excluded from the federal cabinet and politically isolated. His influence within Kaduna State was gradually undermined as political forces aligned against him. This happened despite his repeated statements that he did not seek a ministerial position. The sequence of events shows how quickly usefulness can expire.
Abdullahi Umar Ganduje’s case further illustrates this pattern. As governor of Kano State during the 2023 elections, Ganduje was instrumental in delivering northern support for Tinubu. His brief elevation as APC National Chairman was widely seen as temporary. His eventual removal, officially explained as health-related, confirmed that the position was never meant to provide long-term political security. Once again, an ally served his purpose and was sidelined.
Muhammad Badaru of Jigawa State followed a similar trajectory. He delivered significant votes for Tinubu and was rewarded with a ministerial appointment. However, political developments suggest that his influence is steadily declining. This demonstrates that appointments under the current power structure often serve as tools of control, not guarantees of protection.
The case of Nyesom Wike reveals another dimension of this strategy. Wike has been used to destabilize the opposition and weaken rival power centers. However, the deepening political crisis in Rivers State suggests that his usefulness may be reaching its limit. History suggests that once a political actor becomes a liability rather than an asset, their protection diminishes.
When these cases are examined together, a clear pattern emerges. Political support is rewarded in the short term but rarely secured in the long term. Loyalty does not guarantee safety. Utility does.
This is where Abba Kabir Yusuf’s situation becomes critical. By leaving the NNPP and distancing himself from Kwankwaso, he risks losing the grassroots structure that delivered Kano for him. At the same time, he would be entering an APC in Kano that is deeply divided, with entrenched factions that may view him as an intruder rather than an ally. Instead of gaining stability, he may find himself politically isolated.
History is not repeated exactly, but it often follows familiar patterns. The experiences of past allies of the president provide a warning. If Abba Kabir Yusuf ignores these lessons, he may discover too late that power in Nigerian politics rewards usefulness, not loyalty, and once usefulness expires, so does protection.
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opinion