by Mohammed Bello Doka
Pakistan’s overriding concern about Iran is not ideological alignment with Tehran’s leadership, but the risk of violent state collapse next door — a scenario Islamabad views as a direct threat to its national security, border stability, and internal cohesion.
A Long, Volatile Border
Pakistan and Iran share an approximately 900-kilometre border, much of it running through the restive Balochistan region. This sparsely governed area has long been affected by Baloch separatist militancy, with armed groups operating on both sides of the frontier.
Security analysts note that a breakdown of central authority in Iran would likely create ungoverned spaces, allowing separatist factions to expand training camps, weapons stockpiles, and cross-border operations. Pakistan’s military has repeatedly warned that such a development would significantly intensify the insurgency in its southwestern province.
Militancy and Recent Precedents
Baloch militant groups have demonstrated growing operational capacity in recent years, targeting security forces, infrastructure, and transport links inside Pakistan. Counter-terrorism operations and intelligence assessments show that these groups rely heavily on cross-border movement and sanctuaries.
This concern is not hypothetical. In January 2024, tensions briefly escalated when Iran conducted missile and drone strikes inside Pakistan’s Balochistan, citing militant targets. Pakistan responded with limited strikes across the border. Although both sides quickly de-escalated, the episode underscored how fragile security coordination can become when border militancy intensifies.
Refugee Pressure and State Capacity
Another major fear in Islamabad is the prospect of large-scale refugee inflows. Pakistan already hosts millions of Afghan refugees, straining public services, security screening, and local economies. Officials have privately warned that widespread unrest or civil conflict in Iran could trigger hundreds of thousands of additional refugees, particularly into Balochistan.
Such a scenario would:
Overstretch border management and humanitarian systems
Increase risks of militant infiltration
Heighten social and economic tensions in already fragile communities
These concerns have previously prompted temporary border closures and tighter controls during periods of heightened Iran–Israel or Iran–US tensions, according to reporting by Reuters and regional security analysts.
Too Many Fronts to Manage
Pakistan’s strategic planners argue that the country cannot afford instability on all sides simultaneously. To the east lies enduring rivalry with India; to the northwest, persistent militant threats linked to Afghanistan; and internally, periodic insurgent violence.
A destabilised Iran would effectively open a third active pressure point, forcing Pakistan to divert military, intelligence, and economic resources at a time of fiscal stress and domestic challenges.
Stability Over Sympathy
Despite sectarian differences — Sunni-majority Pakistan and Shiite-led Iran — Islamabad’s approach is driven by pragmatic security calculations, not religious or political loyalty. Pakistani policymakers consistently signal that a functioning Iranian state, even an unfriendly one, is preferable to chaos.
Think-tank analyses published by The National Interest and security reporting by Reuters emphasize that Pakistan’s position mirrors that of several regional states: prevent state collapse, manage disputes, and contain militancy.
The Strategic Bottom Line
For Pakistan, the equation is stark:
Iranian stability means manageable border tensions
Iranian collapse means expanded militancy, refugee pressure, and regional spillover
As one regional analyst summarized in The National Interest, Pakistan’s fear is not Tehran’s endurance, but its violent disintegration — an outcome that would immediately and dangerously reverberate across Pakistan’s most vulnerable frontier.
In this context, Islamabad’s quiet preference for stability in Iran reflects not alliance politics, but self-preservation in one of the world’s most complex security environments.
Abuja Network News
Tags
International