by Mohammed Bello Doka
What if 2027 is not just another election — but the last real chance for opposition politics to survive in Nigeria?
What if losing again does not merely hand victory to the ruling party, but quietly buries the idea that power can still change hands through the ballot? And what if sentiment, ego, and fragmentation once again prove more powerful than strategy?
These are not academic questions. They are existential ones.
In politics, Niccolò Machiavelli warned that “there is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others.” For Nigeria’s opposition, 2027 is that postponed war — and postponing seriousness any further may prove fatal.
2027 Is Not a Normal Election
Nigeria is standing at the edge of a dangerous political trajectory. If the opposition loses again in 2027, the country risks sliding into a dominant-party system, where elections continue, but power no longer meaningfully alternates.
The ruling would have governed for well over a decade. Elite defections would accelerate. Funding would dry up. Opposition parties would shrink into noisy but ineffective platforms. Voters — especially the young and disillusioned — would conclude that opposition politics is symbolic, not consequential.
History is unforgiving here. As Robert Michels observed in his Iron Law of Oligarchy, “Who says organization, says oligarchy.” Once dominance hardens, reversal becomes brutally difficult.
This is why 2027 is not about protest votes or moral posturing. It is about survival.
The Cost of Emotion and Fragmentation
The 2023 election taught a painful lesson: enthusiasm does not equal victory. Social media energy did not translate into national spread. Fragmented ambition split opposition votes and handed victory to incumbency.
If that pattern repeats, it will not be forgiven by history.
In Nigeria, elections are won by coalitions, not crusades. By arithmetic, not applause.
So the real question becomes unavoidable: who can realistically win Nigeria?
The Harsh Arithmetic of Nigerian Power
Every winning presidential ticket in Nigeria must answer three unforgiving demands:
- Northern acceptance
- Southern spread
- Religious balance
Ignore any one of these, and defeat is almost guaranteed.
Politics, as Max Weber reminded us, is “the strong and slow boring of hard boards.” It rewards patience, calculation, and realism — not purity.
Why a Jonathan-Led Ticket Changes the Equation
A ticket anchored by immediately resets the national conversation.
Jonathan remains one of the few southern politicians with pan-southern appeal:
- In the South-South, he is home.
- In the South-East, he retains goodwill.
- In the South-West, he is seen as non-threatening and non-sectarian.
Crucially, Jonathan also respects the powerful “Southern turn” narrative of 2027. Against an incumbent president, that symbolism matters.
Even more important is the quiet but decisive calculation: Jonathan has only one constitutional term left. This single fact dramatically lowers northern anxiety about 2031. It reassures elites that power rotation remains intact. It removes the fear of prolonged southern dominance.
Thomas Hobbes once wrote that “the life of man is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short” without order. In Nigerian elite politics, order often begins with predictability — and Jonathan offers exactly that.
The El-Rufai Factor: Controversial, Yes — Useful, Absolutely
Pairing Jonathan with is not about affection. It is about function.
El-Rufai brings:
- Northern Muslim balance
- Reach beyond a single state
- Credibility among technocrats, policy elites, and security circles
Unlike regional heavyweights whose influence collapses outside their home states, El-Rufai’s networks travel. He is polarising, but politics has never rewarded comfort over effectiveness.
As Hannah Arendt argued, “Power and violence are opposites; where one rules absolutely, the other is absent.” El-Rufai’s utility lies not in brute force, but in elite mobilisation — the kind elections quietly depend on.
Religion Still Matters — Whether We Like It or Not
After the backlash of 2023, it is highly unlikely that ’s party will repeat a Muslim–Muslim ticket. A Northern Christian running mate is the most logical APC correction.
That reality raises a vital question: Should the opposition lag behind while the ruling party recalibrates?
A Jonathan–El-Rufai ticket offers textbook religious balance:
- Southern Christian
- Northern Muslim
No experimentation. No controversy. No moral gymnastics.
Religious balance may not win elections outright — but religious imbalance can lose them decisively.
This Is Not Nostalgia — It Is Rescue Politics
Critics will sneer about “returning to the past.” They miss the point.
This is not about romanticising yesterday. It is about preserving tomorrow. A Jonathan-led ticket would be a transitional coalition, designed to keep opposition politics alive, competitive, and credible.
John Stuart Mill warned that “bad institutions are those which make it difficult for good men to act.” In 2027, bad strategy may make it impossible for the opposition to survive at all.
The Cost of Getting 2027 Wrong
What happens if the opposition fragments again?
- Governors defect.
- Financiers flee.
- Voters disengage.
- The ruling party entrenches itself.
And then the most dangerous question emerges: If elections change nothing, why participate at all?
That is how democracies decay — not through coups, but through repeated hopelessness.
The Final Question
So the question facing and the wider opposition is no longer who excites the base, but who can actually win Nigeria.
Is this the moment for ego — or for survival?
For sentiment — or for strategy?
For applause — or for arithmetic?
Because if 2027 is lost through complacency, fragmentation, or fear of hard choices, the opposition may not get another meaningful chance.
And history will be merciless in its judgment.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]