Ali Abubakar Sadiq
The opposition has already shot themselves in the foot, thanks to their collective naivety and refusal to tell themselves the truth.
On the eve of the 2023 elections, I released a documentary "Buhari: The Demystification of a myth" (YouTube: https://youtu.be/_kay3RR2-t4?si=TA8kEfSXzAetj2Ah) wherein I warned us about the dangers of extending the APC presidency beyond 2023. I even predicted dollar and oil prices to reach the 1000 naira mark. Unfortunately my warnings largely went unheeded.
What happened in 2023 elections had never happened anywhere in the history of democratic elections. An opposition with 14+ million votes lost to a paltry 8+ million votes. A clear pointer that majority of Nigerians then are indeed tired of the APC misrule.
Whose fault? There are several culprits but I squarely blame Atiku Abubakar being the leading opposition figure then for the following reasons. Peter Obi was his running mate in 2019 and they won 17 states, losing to Buhari's 19 states. Good outing for the opposition, you may say, right? How could Atiku allow a divided ticket in 2023 when APC misrule has angered many? Or allow Wike to be a sellout after the primaries and not be expelled if couldn't be accommodated? How could he also allow Ayu to cling to a position of a party Chairman he shouldn't have (only to abandon the position just six months after the elections?). Why would Atiku himself abandon PDP (as the strongest opposition figure in the country under the strongest opposition party then?) thus by Atiku's omission he inadvertently helped in destroying PDP's strength. And by so doing, Atiku played to the gallery of the APC plan to cripple opposition in the country for good.
The APC was scared shit after the 2023 elections for the simple fact that the narrow electoral coup they achieved, was only possible because the opposition failed to unite. From then on, APC's number one mission became ensuring that the opposition remain fragmented as it were until 2027. That is the only way to succeed. Thus, Atiku's reactions helped them destroy PDP using Wike. Atiku should have stayed in PDP and salvage it as the only platform capable of defeating APC come 2027.
APC and Tinubu had perfected their plan in ensuring they retain the presidency in 2027 by wooing state governors, legislator, clerics and politicians through monetary incentives, corruption scares etc and sadly they have completely crippled the opposition. Aren't we heading to a one-party system in this complex multi-ethnic, multi-religious society?
The trio of Shettima, El Rufai and Ganduje were the backbone of APC's Muslim-Muslim ticket in the north. In fact El Rufai's two term experiment of Muslim-Muslim ticket foisted on the most ethno-religious divided state (Kaduna) was a precursor for the application in the national stage and it was equally pulled off. But El Rufai was the first casuality of the Tinubu government, as they couldn't even allow him a seat in the cabinet. Followed by Ganduje, though rewarded with a stint as party chairman but after having served his purpose too, was also unceremoniously booted. A man that got his mandate on the almost impossible Muslim-Muslim ticket, is now not only poised at betraying it's chief prophet and beneficiary, Kashim Shettima, but the Muslim-Muslim block votes he enjoyed. A grand scheme is being rumored of dropping the Muslim VP to be replaced with a Christian. We have seen also how he relied on Wike to destroy PDP, checkmated Fubara and Rivers state and if the writings on the wall are anything to go by, they are probably going to drop him soon. This government is a serial betrayer of it's staunchest loyalist, who else is too big to be sacrificed?
The dangers of Tinubu second term keeps me awake at night, because performance and delivery must be our yardstick of assessment. If a president in his first term could be so blunt and reckless, sacrifice integrity for interest, what do you expect in his second term? This is a man that promised everything in his renewed hope campaign slogan but only delivers misery to the population through subsidy removal before even entering the villa or having a cabinet. A reckless decision that sent 139 million Nigerians into poverty. The 500 billion expected to be accrued to the state coppers every month from subsidy windfall and promised to be used in people oriented projects through interventions in the transport sector, small scale businesses, agriculture, health etc were nowhere to be seen. Some of us could remember when Abacha increased 5 Naira in the pump price of petrol, he creates the PTF whose "Oil and Water" slogan signboards scattered across the country could be seen from the fringes of the desert in the north, across the Niger and Benue up to the Atlantic shores indicating delivered roads, pharmacies, schools, water projects etc.
From June 2023 to January 2025, a thirty months period would have generated 15 trillion from oil subsidy windfall extracted from the masses. But do we see any commensurate development in interventions as promised in various sectors? Of course the states and local governments received unprecedented remittance of federal allocation monthly, never before seen. But what are the state and local governments doing to ease poverty, create jobs and in the provision of basic amenities like portable water or healthcare delivery to their populace? Isn't this robbing peter to pay Paul? It was reported that Governors spent 400 billion on security votes in 2025 yet majority of the citizens had never been so insecure.
As if that is not enough, I mean squandering our revenues on political elites and their whims, a new tax regime is introduce that would also extract from the masses pockets. After Buhari's 8 wasteful years, Tinubu's excruciating first term, Nigerians have not shown any sign of realizing the power this democracy has bestowed on them. The power of making and unmaking of regimes. The opposition is no longer opposing but positioning themselves to be defeated once again. So far APC had pocketed 28 states and still counting, with Kano, Lagos and Rivers under their hat, despite all the hardship inflicted by APC on Nigerians for over a decade, I wouldn't be surprised if Tinubu is returned victoriously for a second term in 2027.
I am no fan of any politician (Atiku included), but as a journalist (a custodian of the fourth realm and defender of truth) my motto is to hail any politician that delivers and oppose any who doesn't. Any conscientious journalist must defend and support performance and delivery by the politicians, while critical of negative policy and incompetence of a regime. With that in mind and the woeful performance of Buhari as a president and petroleum minister, Atiku's voiced plan in the run-up to the 2023 elections saying he will be scrapping the NNPC was the greatest and most attractive campaign slogan ever in Nigerian politics, which any forward thinking voter should have rallied behind, as without NNPC, I believe 50% of corruption in Nigeria would have been checkmated. I also believe in criticizing bad policies regardless of the party in power, thus the regular change of power baton between APC/PDP/ADC etc triggered by our protest votes in every election circle is the surest way to checkmate the excesses of our politicians and political parties. Had we adopted this stance, the recklessness of APC would have been checkmated since 2019. And unless we learn to do that... the worst is yet to come.
For our democracy to work and deliver on good governance, we must adopt the simple philosophy of not loving or following any party/candidate blindly but what they can practically deliver and stop the ethno-religious hatred of any party/candidate, but their failures in delivery. For a decade now, APC had failed us on economy and security, thus a decade is long enough to try others. We all know it is only Atiku Abubakar, for now, who has the financial muscle, the political clout, geographical spread under a strong opposition party, to be able to unseat Tinubu. For this reason, several months ago I tried reaching out to Atiku through a mutual contact and he promised me audience to discuss. I wanted to warn him of the dangers of delay and to proffer a plan, but the meeting never took place. But I think the opposition has slept for too long in a race where their opponents are miles ahead in the track. Only a miracle could make them catch up, let alone beat the sitting president.
Now, the ADC is also repeating past mistakes. Instead of the opposition, early on to realize their strength and come together, it was only in December that Obi joined and Obasanjo (perhaps out of his pathological hatred for Atiku) is now pushing for Obi/Kwankwaso ticket. As Hakeem Baba Ahmed rightly pointed out in his interview with Seun on Channels Television recently, there is no way those two could defeat Atiku in the primaries. And the aftermath of the ADC primaries could hardly end well, as some will definitely walk away. Another mistake made by Atiku's camp is waiting this late to decide the ADC's flagbearer. The party is most likely to emerge weaker after its primaries, unless if Atiku could reach an agreement with Obi to agree as running mate and he will enjoy one term and give way to Obi in 2031. With the PDP almost dead, the ADC remains it's own worst enemy if it fails to quickly settle the candidacy issue between the top contenders before the primaries. Even with one-term accommodation by Atiku to carry the Obedients fully, they should also pray for APC to drop Shettima for a Northern Christian. That, to me, is the only semblance of winnable chance the opposition could muster. But can they?
Unless we collectively invoke the "Otege" (enough is enough) of old, with the recent fall of Kano Government, the deep purse of the omilokan hurricane knew no bounds and would soon wipe away any opposition, leaving no one standing in their position.
Abuja Network News
Tags
Opinion