By Baba Lawan
October 2025
Nigeria’s democracy is showing worrying signs of strain. The recent wave of defections by four governors from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may look like business as usual, but it reflects something more troubling — the slow erosion of political diversity and the silent rise of a dominant-party system.
The question now is no longer whether Nigeria is democratic, but what kind of democracy it truly practices. Are we witnessing liberal democracy in action, or a gradual transformation into popular authoritarianism disguised as pluralism?
The Politics of Defection
Defection has become Nigeria’s most predictable political ritual. Politicians cross party lines not out of conviction but convenience.
When governors and lawmakers switch parties midterm, they often claim to be “aligning with the center” for the sake of development. In truth, they are aligning with power for the sake of survival.
This culture of opportunistic defection reveals how ideology has vanished from Nigeria’s political vocabulary. Political parties no longer represent ideas or philosophies — only pathways to patronage and protection.
From Liberal Democracy to Party Monopoly
Liberal democracy thrives on pluralism — a competition of ideas and interests that keeps power accountable. But Nigeria’s democracy is increasingly defined by conformity, not contestation.
The APC’s growing dominance — both at the national and state levels — has created an imbalance that threatens the very foundation of political pluralism. When opposition voices are silenced, absorbed, or discredited, the ruling party becomes not just the government but the state itself.
This is how democracies decay — not through coups or decrees, but through quiet centralization and political absorption.
Popular Authoritarianism: Democracy’s Disguise
Political scientists describe “popular authoritarianism” as a system where elections continue to exist, but power is concentrated in one dominant bloc that claims to represent the “will of the people.”
Nigeria’s current trajectory fits this description uncomfortably well. Citizens still vote, parties still campaign, and institutions still function — but real competition is fading. When all roads lead to one ruling party, the ballot becomes a ritual, not a choice.
The Consequences of Dominance
The absence of strong opposition has grave consequences. Accountability declines, corruption grows unchecked, and governance becomes complacent.
A ruling party with overwhelming power often confuses popularity with legitimacy. When dissenting voices are branded as “anti-government” or “unpatriotic,” democracy loses its essence.
Even worse, citizens lose trust in the system itself. Once people believe that power cannot truly change hands, they disengage — and democracy dies, not with violence, but with silence.
Restoring Balance and Integrity
Nigeria’s democracy can still be saved, but it requires deliberate action. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) must enforce anti-defection laws without fear or favoritism. Elected officials who abandon the party under which they were voted into office should forfeit their mandates — it’s that simple.
Opposition parties, particularly the PDP and emerging platforms like the Labour Party and ADC, must rebuild from within. They need clear ideologies, credible leadership, and grassroots engagement that goes beyond election seasons.
Civil society, the media, and youth movements must continue to defend political pluralism — because once political competition disappears, reclaiming it becomes nearly impossible.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s democracy is at a crossroads. The ruling party’s growing dominance may look like strength, but it could easily become suffocation.
True democracy is not measured by the number of elections held, but by the existence of genuine alternatives and the freedom to choose among them.
If defections and political conformity continue unchecked, Nigeria risks trading its hard-earned democracy for a more dangerous substitute — a one-party monopoly wrapped in the language of freedom.
Lawan Musa Danlami is a political analyst and columnist based in Nigeria. He writes on governance, electoral reform, and democratic accountability in Nigeria.
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Opinion