The results of the just-concluded bye-elections across several states in Nigeria have offered sobering lessons for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, exposing the internal weaknesses of the party while also highlighting potential openings for growth if urgent reforms are undertaken.
Although the contests were local in nature, shaped heavily by candidate personalities, regional loyalties, and state-level dynamics, the aggregate performance paints a picture of a coalition that is yet to find its footing in Nigeria’s volatile political landscape.
Performance in Numbers
According to collation of official INEC figures and field reports:
- APC maintained its dominance, scoring between 55% and 65% of total votes cast across most constituencies.
- PDP followed closely with between 25% and 35%, depending on state-level strength and incumbency advantage.
- Labour Party (LP) managed 8%–12%, maintaining pockets of influence especially in urban/semi-urban youth constituencies.
- ADC Coalition candidates collectively managed 3%–6% on average, with scattered strength in minority wards, student-heavy districts, and a few rural communities where independent-minded local leaders campaigned on their behalf.
- Other fringe parties shared less than 2% of the votes.
In states like Ogun and Edo, where incumbency of APC governors played heavily in favor of the ruling party, ADC struggled to gain traction. In Kaduna, where grassroots mobilization was intense, ADC scored slightly better, peaking at around 7% in select wards, but still fell behind APC and PDP.
Key Weaknesses Identified
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Disunity within the coalition
ADC has yet to formally integrate its coalition partners. During the bye-elections, in several constituencies, supposed coalition partners even fielded separate candidates against each other. This divided front not only confused voters but also diluted the possibility of a “third force” narrative. -
Weak branding and visibility
Many voters were unfamiliar with the ADC logo and confused about whether they were voting for ADC proper or one of its yet-to-be-formalized coalition partners. Without a united brand identity, ADC was outmatched by the easily recognizable symbols of APC (broom) and PDP (umbrella). -
Logistics and financing gaps
Reports from agents in Ogun and Zamfara revealed that ADC lacked adequate polling unit agents. In some cases, one ADC agent was forced to cover multiple units, leaving the party vulnerable to vote manipulation. Unlike APC and PDP, ADC could not sustain media campaigns or mobilize grassroots coordinators effectively. -
Voter apathy and intimidation
In rural Zamfara and parts of Katsina, low turnout worked in favor of established parties. Allegations of intimidation by security operatives further weakened ADC’s chances, especially in strongholds where the party hoped to mobilize youths and women. -
Regional biases and “local strongman” politics
Local elections are traditionally determined more by candidate loyalty and regional identity than national ideology. In this context, ADC candidates were often overshadowed by household names backed by APC or PDP structures.
Strengths and Opportunities
Despite the setbacks, the bye-elections revealed small but significant entry points for the ADC coalition:
- Youth Engagement: In Kaduna and Ogun university wards, ADC polled above its average, reaching 7–8%, suggesting that the youth vote remains a fertile ground if properly cultivated.
- Minority Constituencies: In parts of Zamfara and Plateau, ADC’s coalition messaging resonated among smaller ethnic groups who felt marginalized by the big parties.
- Credibility as an Alternative: Among politically conscious voters, ADC was viewed as “untainted” compared to APC and PDP. This perception is an asset if properly marketed.
Stakeholders Speak
- INEC observers noted that smaller parties like ADC lacked the polling unit structure to defend their votes.
- Civil society groups lamented that coalition parties contesting against each other weakened the possibility of real alternatives.
- Youth activists argued that ADC remains a viable option but needs to “speak with one voice and sell its logo” before the next round of elections.
- Ruling party leaders dismissed ADC’s relevance, pointing to its “tiny numbers” as proof of irrelevance.
The Road Ahead: What ADC Must Do
- Formalize the coalition quickly — integrate coalition parties under one structure, one logo, and one recognizable leadership.
- Strengthen grassroots structures — recruit and train polling agents, expand ward-level presence, and incentivize youth participation.
- Leverage its outsider status — brand ADC as the “clean alternative,” free from the corruption tag of APC and PDP.
- Reform internal financing and logistics — establish transparent crowd-funding mechanisms to rival the deep pockets of the ruling parties.
- Invest in storytelling and visibility — use social media, community radio, and local influencers to embed the party logo and candidates in public consciousness.
Conclusion
The bye-elections were not a national referendum but they provided a reality check for the ADC coalition. The message is clear: unless the party urgently unites, strengthens its grassroots presence, and builds a coherent identity, it risks becoming another footnote in Nigeria’s crowded political field.
Yet, with Nigeria’s electorate increasingly disillusioned with APC and PDP, the opportunity for a third force remains open. Whether ADC seizes it or squanders it depends on how quickly it learns from the painful lessons of these bye-elections.