By Mohammed Bello Doka
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once Nigeria’s dominant political force, is grappling with severe internal challenges that threaten its survival as the country’s main opposition party. With the 2027 general elections looming, the PDP’s struggles—marked by defections, internal sabotage, and leadership crises—pose significant risks to Nigeria’s democratic balance. This essay details the verifiable challenges facing the PDP, outlines the dangers of its potential disintegration to Nigerian democracy, and proposes tough, actionable solutions to avert its destruction.
Challenges Facing the PDP
The PDP’s current turmoil is rooted in a series of well-documented issues that have eroded its unity and influence:
1. High-Profile Defections:
- In Kaduna State, former governor Ramalan Yero, Senator Shehu Sani, and Senator Danjuma Laah defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in February 2025, a move described by the PDP’s Kaduna State Appeal and Reconciliation Committee Chairman, Shuaibu Miqati, as a “sad and worrisome development” driven by internal sabotage.
- In Lagos, the PDP’s 2023 governorship candidate, Abdul-Azeez Adediran (Jandor), rejoined the APC in March 2025, citing betrayal and dysfunction within the PDP, further weakening the party’s foothold in a key state.
- In Enugu, over 150 PDP members, including Barr. Peter Okonkwo, defected to the APC, vowing to dismantle PDP structures in Nsukka zone, signaling a significant loss of grassroots support.
- A group of northern supporters of Atiku Abubakar defected to the APC in Abuja in March 2025, undermining the PDP’s efforts to maintain a united front.
2. Internal Sabotage and Anti-Party Activities:
- Anti-party activities, defined in Nigeria as actions that undermine party objectives, are rampant. In Kaduna, Miqati noted that some members engaged in public criticism and collaboration with rivals, eroding party cohesion.
- In Rivers State, the feud between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and Nyesom Wike has led to accusations of Wike aligning with APC interests, weakening the PDP’s control in a stronghold state.
- Rumors of PDP governors supporting President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid, as reported in X posts about a supposed Ibadan meeting, reflect perceptions of disloyalty, though unconfirmed.
3. Leadership Crisis and Factionalism:
- The PDP’s leadership struggles, including disputes over the national chairmanship and parallel state congresses, have fueled factionalism. In Rivers and other states, rival congresses have split loyalties, paralyzing party structures.
- Atiku Abubakar’s absence from a North East PDP caucus meeting in Bauchi in February 2025 highlighted internal rifts, with some X posts suggesting his coalition-building efforts with non-PDP members risk further fragmentation.
4. Electoral and Organizational Weakness:
- The PDP’s inability to reconcile factions or enforce discipline has weakened its electoral prospects. In Oyo State, reports indicate members supported rival candidates in local elections, prioritizing personal grudges over party success.
- The party’s failure to hold cohesive congresses or address grievances, as noted in Kaduna, has left it vulnerable to further defections and loss of influence.
Dangers of PDP’s Disintegration to Nigerian Democracy
The disintegration of the PDP as Nigeria’s main opposition party would have profound consequences for the country’s democratic system:
1. Erosion of Democratic Balance:
- A weak or collapsed PDP would leave the APC as the dominant political force, creating a de facto one-party state. This lack of a viable opposition risks unchecked governance, as the APC could pass policies or entrench power without significant pushback.
- Historical examples, like the PDP’s own dominance from 1999 to 2015, show that a weak opposition can lead to complacency, corruption, and reduced accountability, as seen in criticisms of the APC’s current governance on economic and security issues.
2. Suppression of Diverse Voices:
- The PDP, despite its flaws, represents a broad coalition of regional and ideological interests, particularly in the South-South, South-East, and parts of the North. Its collapse could marginalize these groups, reducing political representation and fueling regional tensions.
- Without a strong opposition, minority voices and dissenting opinions may struggle to find a platform, weakening the pluralistic foundation of democracy.
3. Risk of Political Instability:
- A fragmented opposition could lead to the rise of smaller, less cohesive parties or coalitions, as hinted by Prof. Pat Utomi’s March 2025 comments about a new coalition. While potentially innovative, such fragmentation risks political instability, as Nigeria’s history of coalition failures (e.g., the 2019 opposition efforts) shows.
- In extreme cases, the absence of a strong opposition could push disaffected groups toward extra-political means, such as protests or separatism, exacerbating Nigeria’s security challenges.
4. Weakened Electoral Competition:
- A diminished PDP would reduce electoral competition, lowering voter turnout and engagement. Nigeria’s democracy thrives on robust contests, as seen in the 2015 election when the APC’s strong opposition ended the PDP’s 16-year rule.
- Without a credible alternative, voter apathy could grow, undermining the legitimacy of elections and democratic institutions.
Solutions to Save the PDP from Destruction
To avert disintegration, the PDP must adopt tough, decisive measures to address its challenges. These solutions require bold leadership and a willingness to confront internal saboteurs head-on:
1. Enforce Strict Discipline:
- The PDP must revive its disciplinary mechanisms to punish anti-party activities. Immediate suspension or expulsion of members engaging in defections, public criticism, or collusion with the APC, as seen in Kaduna and Lagos, would deter further sabotage.
- A clear precedent exists: in 2014, the PDP suspended governors like Rotimi Amaechi for anti-party activities. Similar actions against current offenders, including high-profile figures, would signal zero tolerance.
2. Resolve Leadership Crisis:
- The party must urgently convene a transparent national convention to elect a unifying leadership, resolving disputes over the chairmanship. A neutral, respected figure—potentially from a less factionalized region—could bridge divides.
- Factional congresses, as seen in Rivers, must be nullified, with fresh, inclusive processes to ensure all stakeholders are represented.
3. Reconcile Factions and Retain Governors:
- The PDP must prioritize reconciliation with key figures like Atiku Abubakar, Nyesom Wike, and governors rumored to be wavering. A high-level reconciliation committee, led by elder statesmen like former presidents or governors, should mediate disputes.
- Incentives, such as guarantees of fair primaries for 2027, could dissuade governors from defecting, countering APC poaching efforts.
4. Rebuild Grassroots Structures:
- The PDP must invest in rebuilding its grassroots base in states like Kaduna, Lagos, and Enugu, where defections have weakened structures. This includes mobilizing youth, women, and local leaders through town halls and economic empowerment programs.
- A robust media campaign to counter APC narratives and highlight PDP’s vision for 2027 would restore public confidence.
5. Strategic Coalition-Building:
- Atiku’s coalition efforts should be formalized under PDP leadership to avoid perceptions of anti-party activity. A structured alliance with other opposition parties, like the Labour Party, could consolidate anti-APC forces without fragmenting the PDP.
- The party must balance coalition talks with internal unity, ensuring governors and key stakeholders are consulted to prevent alienation.
6. Address Governance Narratives:
- The PDP must articulate a clear alternative to APC governance, focusing on economic recovery, security, and anti-corruption—issues resonating with Nigerians. A policy blueprint, launched publicly, would shift focus from internal crises to electoral competitiveness.
- Leveraging APC’s governance failures, as highlighted in X posts about economic hardship, could rally support and deter defections by showcasing the PDP’s relevance.
Conclusion
The PDP faces existential challenges from defections, internal sabotage, and leadership crises, as evidenced by events in Kaduna, Lagos, Enugu, and Rivers. Its potential disintegration threatens Nigeria’s democracy by risking a one-party state, suppressing diverse voices, and weakening electoral competition. To save itself, the PDP must enforce discipline, resolve leadership disputes, reconcile factions, rebuild grassroots support, and strategically engage in coalition-building while presenting a compelling governance alternative. These tough measures require bold leadership and a unified commitment to survival. If the PDP fails to act, Nigeria’s democratic balance hangs in the balance, paving the way for unchecked APC dominance. The time for the PDP to fight for its life is now—or it risks fading into irrelevance by 2027.
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