ABUJA, April 12, 2025 — As Nigeria’s 2027 general elections loom, opposition heavyweights Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso stand at a crossroads: unite with other parties to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) or risk fading into political obscurity. A divided opposition, analysts warn, could hand Tinubu a second term, cementing his dominance and sidelining these two ambitious leaders. With internal crises plaguing their parties and the APC tightening its grip, Obi and Kwankwaso have no viable path to Aso Rock without a coalition.
The numbers tell a stark story. In 2023, Obi, running under the Labour Party (LP), secured 6.1 million votes (25.4%), dominating the South-East and South-South while gaining traction among northern Christians in states like Plateau and Benue. Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) garnered 1.5 million votes (6.2%), almost entirely from his Kano stronghold. Together, they challenged the APC’s 8.8 million votes, but separately, neither has the geographic spread to meet Nigeria’s electoral threshold—25% of votes in 24 states plus the FCT. “Without a merger, they’re splitting the anti-APC vote,” says political analyst Chidi Okoro. “It’s a gift to Tinubu.”
Historical precedent underscores the danger. In 2015, the APC’s coalition of opposition parties toppled the PDP’s Goodluck Jonathan, proving unity’s power. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a PDP stalwart, has called for a similar mega-alliance, warning that fragmentation could usher in a one-party state. Yet, Obi and Kwankwaso remain hesitant. Kwankwaso, in a BBC Hausa interview, dismissed rumors of a deal with Obi and Atiku, citing past electoral betrayals. Obi, meanwhile, speaks of national unity but avoids committing to any coalition, leaving supporters anxious.
For Kwankwaso, the stakes are existential. Kano, his political fortress, delivered over 1 million votes in 2023, electing NNPP’s Abba Yusuf as governor. But the APC is circling. Legal challenges to Yusuf’s victory, coupled with the emirship saga involving Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, signal Tinubu’s intent to dismantle Kwankwaso’s base. Sanusi’s reinstatement by Yusuf was a bold NNPP move, but APC-backed lawsuits and rival emirs threaten instability. If Obi and PDP’s Atiku run separately, anti-APC votes in Kano could fracture, letting APC’s Nasiru Gawuna—who lost narrowly in 2023 (890,705 to Yusuf’s 1,019,602)—seize the state. “Lose Kano, and Kwankwaso’s done,” warns Kano-based activist Aisha Bello. “Tinubu will use federal might to bury him.”
Obi faces equally dire prospects. The Labour Party is crumbling under leadership disputes, with factions undermining his 2023 momentum. His southern stronghold—88% in Anambra, 75% in Rivers—is eroding as APC woos defectors. Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe’s wavering loyalty and South-South politicians chasing APC patronage weaken Obi’s grip. In the North, his Christian base in Plateau, Benue, and southern Kaduna is slipping. Figures like Daniel Bwala, Yakubu Dogara, and Benue Governor Hyacinth Alia are cozying up to Tinubu, while Bishop Matthew Kukah’s constructive engagement with the presidency signals a shift. “Obi’s northern votes aren’t guaranteed anymore,” notes analyst Sarah Ogunleye. “He’s bleeding support.”
A solo run could devastate both leaders. If Obi stays in LP, he’ll split southern votes with Tinubu, who edged him out in Lagos in 2023. In the North, his Christian votes would dilute opposition strength, but not enough for him to win. Tinubu, meanwhile, risks losing northern Muslim support—crucial in Kano, Kaduna, and Borno—if economic discontent festers. A united PDP-NNPP coalition could exploit this, especially with a northern candidate like Atiku. In Kaduna, for instance, Obi’s 9% and PDP’s 27% in 2023 could have rivaled APC’s 40% if combined. “Obi hurts Tinubu by running, but he hurts himself more,” Okoro says. “A coalition wins; division loses.”
Kwankwaso’s refusal to merge is equally suicidal. His Kwankwasiyya movement is potent but regional. Without allies, he can’t expand beyond Kano, where APC’s Senator Barau Jibrin and federal patronage are gaining ground. A Tinubu re-election would likely intensify attacks on Kano, using security, courts, or INEC to crush NNPP. Obi, too, risks irrelevance. His youth-driven “Obidient” movement lacks the structure to survive another loss. If Tinubu consolidates power—potentially through electoral reforms or media control—Obi’s national appeal could shrink to a South-East echo chamber.
Examples abound of opposition disunity spelling doom. In 2019, PDP’s Atiku and other splinter candidates failed to coalesce, handing Buhari victory. Globally, Turkey’s 2018 elections saw a divided opposition gift Erdoğan another term. “Obi and Kwankwaso are repeating history,” Bello laments. “Ego is their enemy.”
Compelling reasons for a merger pile up. First, Tinubu’s incumbency gives him media, funds, and institutional control—formidable without a united front. Second, economic hardships since 2023 fuel anti-APC sentiment, but only a coalition can channel it effectively. Third, both leaders face personal vendettas: Tinubu’s allies openly target Kwankwaso’s Kano empire, while Obi’s LP is infiltrated by APC sympathizers. Fourth, younger voters—Obi’s base—are growing disillusioned, with X posts showing frustration at his indecision. “Join hands or retire,” tweeted @NaijaYouth2027.
The opposition’s window is narrowing. The National Consultative Front, led by Prof. Pat Utomi, pushes for a mega-party, but PDP’s internal rifts and Obi’s caution stall progress. Former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau doubts a coalition’s feasibility, citing clashing ambitions. Yet, the alternative is grim: a Tinubu dynasty, with Obi and Kwankwaso reduced to footnotes. “They’re not just fighting for 2027,” Ogunleye says. “It’s their political survival.”
Will pride trump pragmatism? Nigeria watches as two of its brightest stars flirt with oblivion.
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