"Tinubu’s greatest mistake is underestimating the North’s political sophistication"
_The recent visit by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Sokoto state, and other prominent northern leaders to former President Muhammadu Buhari in his Kaduna residence has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political landscape. This high-profile meeting is not a mere courtesy call; it is a calculated move towards a formidable opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 presidential election. For political strategists within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), this is a red flag—an early warning that President Bola Tinubu’s grip on power is far from secure.
The delegation to Buhari’s residence comprised influential figures who, though from different political camps, share a common grievance: Tinubu’s blatant marginalization of the North despite the region’s overwhelming electoral support. In the 2023 elections, the North delivered over 5 million votes to Tinubu, while the entire South—his supposed stronghold—gave him less than 4 million. Even Lagos, his home state, rejected him. Yet, in a shocking display of political myopia, Tinubu has filled his administration with over 200 appointees, most of them Yoruba, with a disproportionate number coming from Lagos.
This lopsidedness is not just an oversight; it is a direct snub to the North, a region that played a decisive role in his victory. By sidelining the very people who propelled him to power, Tinubu is committing political suicide. The message from the North is clear: We will not be taken for granted.
President Tinubu’s lack of political foresight is becoming increasingly evident. His appointments have alienated key northern allies, including El-Rufai, who was unceremoniously dropped from his ministerial list despite being one of the APC’s most effective campaigners. Meanwhile, Atiku, though a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stalwart, has been quietly reaching out to disgruntled northern elites, sensing an opportunity to capitalize on Tinubu’s missteps.
The presence of George Akume—a sitting SGF—in this meeting is particularly telling. It suggests that even within Tinubu’s government, there are high-ranking officials who are uneasy with his leadership style and may be hedging their bets. If the North unites behind a single candidate in 2027—whether Atiku, El-Rufai, or another consensus figure—Tinubu’s chances of retaining power will be slim.
The North has always been a kingmaker in Nigerian politics. From Buhari’s victories in 2015 and 2019 to Tinubu’s narrow win in 2023, the region’s voting bloc is unmatched. But Tinubu, rather than rewarding this loyalty, has chosen to surround himself with cronies from his ethnic enclave. This is not just poor politics; it is an insult.
If the opposition succeeds in forming a grand coalition—bringing together PDP heavyweights like Atiku, APC rebels like El-Rufai, and influential traditional leaders—Tinubu will face an electoral tsunami in 2027. The North has the numbers, and if mobilized effectively, it can decisively end his presidency.
Tinubu’s greatest mistake is underestimating the North’s political sophistication. By biting the fingers that fed him, he is inviting a backlash that could redefine Nigeria’s power dynamics. The 2027 election may still be three years away, but the battle lines are already being drawn. If Tinubu fails to course-correct—by broadening his appointments, mending fences with northern leaders, and delivering tangible development—he may find himself on the wrong side of history.
The North does not forget, and it does not forgive betrayal. Tinubu’s presidency is on notice.
Honourable Jamil Shuaib Jetta
12 April, 2025
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Opinion