By Mohammed Bello Doka
In the complex chessboard of Nigerian politics, where power is never given but taken through calculated maneuvers, the 2027 presidential election is already shaping up to be one of the most intense power struggles in the country’s history. The key players? Two former military leaders turned civilian presidents—Muhammadu Buhari and Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB).
Both men, despite their historical rivalry, share a common dissatisfaction with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership. While Tinubu secured the presidency in 2023 with crucial northern support, many within Buhari’s camp believe that their region has been sidelined. Similarly, Babangida, known for his behind-the-scenes political engineering, is said to be uneasy about Tinubu’s approach to governance, which prioritizes his southwestern allies over the traditional northern elite.
In a country where alliances shift like desert sands, the possibility of Buhari and IBB joining forces in a bid to reclaim northern dominance in 2027 is no longer just speculation—it is a real and looming threat to Tinubu’s second-term ambitions. If these two former leaders decide to make a move, they could destabilize the APC, cripple Tinubu’s re-election bid, and realign Nigeria’s political future in favor of the North.
But the biggest question remains: Are Buhari and IBB already working together? And if so, what are their three possible moves for 2027?
The Buhari-IBB Power Play: A Marriage of Convenience?
At first glance, Buhari and IBB appear to be unlikely allies. Their political histories are defined by opposition—Buhari was overthrown by Babangida in 1985, and for decades, both men operated in different political circles. While Buhari built his brand around discipline and anti-corruption, Babangida embraced a pragmatic, deal-making approach that often blurred the lines between friend and foe.
However, 2027 presents a rare intersection of interests. Both men, despite their differences, share a vested interest in ensuring that power remains in the hands of northern elites. Their discontent with Tinubu’s presidency is a key unifying factor:
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The North’s Declining Influence Under Tinubu – Many of Buhari’s loyalists feel that Tinubu has abandoned the political structures that delivered the North’s crucial support in 2023. Several key northern figures in the APC have been sidelined, while Tinubu consolidates power around his southwestern allies.
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Economic Hardships and Rising Northern Discontent – Policies like fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation have disproportionately affected northern Nigeria. Farmers, traders, and civil servants across the North are feeling the pinch, and Buhari’s camp knows that these grievances could be weaponized against Tinubu in 2027.
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IBB’s Long Game – Babangida is a master strategist who rarely makes political moves without a broader vision. He has been quietly rebuilding his influence among key northern power blocs, including retired military officers, business elites, and traditional rulers.
Together, Buhari’s mass appeal in the North and IBB’s deep political networks could create a formidable coalition that directly threatens Tinubu’s grip on power.
IBB’s Book Launch: A Political Trick or a Genuine Snub?
One of the biggest signs of a potential Buhari-IBB realignment was the launch of IBB’s biography, "A Journey of Service." The book, which chronicles Babangida’s legacy and his role in shaping modern Nigeria, was reviewed by former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.
Osinbajo’s glowing review of Babangida raised eyebrows, as it signaled a warming relationship between Babangida and Tinubu’s former deputy. However, the most intriguing part of the event was Buhari’s absence.
While some saw Buhari’s decision to skip IBB’s book launch as a continuation of their long-standing rivalry, others believe it was a well-orchestrated political trick.
Babangida has a history of playing long-term political games. In the 1990s, he publicly distanced himself from Sani Abacha, yet Abacha later emerged as the biggest beneficiary of IBB’s silent maneuvers.
Could Buhari’s absence be another deceptive play? Some analysts believe that Buhari’s camp is deliberately keeping its distance from IBB in public while secretly working behind the scenes. This would give them the element of surprise when the real power moves begin in 2027.
Three Possible Moves Buhari and IBB Could Make in 2027
1. Backing a Northern Consensus Candidate to Challenge Tinubu
- Buhari and IBB could unite northern APC governors, traditional rulers, and key stakeholders to rally behind a single northern candidate—someone with both mass appeal and deep political experience.
- Potential candidates include:
- Nasir El-Rufai – A known Buhari loyalist and former Kaduna governor.
- Atiku Abubakar – A seasoned politician with strong northern backing.
- A Military-Backed Candidate – Given IBB’s influence in security circles, a former military officer could emerge as a surprise contender.
Why this is dangerous for Tinubu:
- The North holds the largest voting bloc in Nigeria.
- If Buhari withdraws his silent support for Tinubu, northern APC governors might refuse to mobilize votes for him.
- A unified northern voting bloc could shatter APC’s fragile balance and push the presidency back to the North.
2. Using Military and Political Networks to Weaken Tinubu’s Grip on Power
- IBB still wields influence in Nigeria’s military and security apparatus, and Buhari’s men control parts of the APC’s internal structure.
- If Tinubu’s second-term bid is seen as a threat, these forces could orchestrate political instability, legal battles, or economic pressure to weaken his government.
- A gradual withdrawal of northern APC support could make it difficult for Tinubu to control the party’s internal politics ahead of the 2027 primaries.
3. Supporting a ‘Third Force’ or Opposition Candidate
- If APC remains divided, Buhari and IBB could secretly back an alternative platform, such as the NNPP or a restructured PDP.
- This would create a scenario similar to 2015, when the North strategically shifted from Goodluck Jonathan to Buhari.
- A coalition of opposition forces, with Buhari’s silent endorsement, could be enough to defeat Tinubu.
Can Tinubu Survive the Coming Storm?
Tinubu, a seasoned political tactician, is not blind to these developments. He is already taking steps to neutralize potential threats:
- Re-engaging key northern figures to prevent a full-scale rebellion within APC.
- Cabinet reshuffles and new appointments aimed at balancing interests within the party.
- Strengthening ties with the military and security agencies to avoid being blindsided by IBB’s network.
But will these moves be enough? If Buhari and IBB truly form an alliance, Tinubu will be facing his greatest political challenge yet.
The Final Game: Who Holds the Upper Hand?
- If Buhari and IBB unite, Tinubu faces a serious northern rebellion.
- If Tinubu outmaneuvers them early, he might divide their forces before 2027.
- If the northern power brokers remain undecided, the election could be thrown wide open.
For now, Buhari and IBB remain silent operators, but their next move could determine Nigeria’s future. Will they make an open declaration, or will they continue their game of shadows? One thing is certain—2027 will not be business as usual.