By Mohammed Bello Doka
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, a quiet but powerful political storm is gathering within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). At the center of this brewing uncertainty are former President Muhammadu Buhari’s loyalists—silent, calculating, and possibly plotting a game-changing maneuver that could leave President Bola Ahmed Tinubu politically vulnerable.
Buhari’s recent relocation from Daura to Kaduna has sparked intense speculation. Kaduna is more than a new home; it is the nerve center of northern political strategy, a place where alliances are forged and power plays are executed. Is this move a mere coincidence, or is it the first sign of a larger plot?
Many within Buhari’s camp feel sidelined by Tinubu’s government, frustrated by key appointments and economic policies they believe have hurt the North. And if history has taught anything, it is that when northern political elites feel threatened, they do not complain loudly—they move in silence.
The Three Moves That Could Shatter Tinubu’s 2027 Ambition
If Buhari’s men decide to turn against Tinubu, they have three potent options—each one capable of altering the course of the 2027 election.
1. A Northern Challenger Emerges From Within
One of the most disruptive moves would be for Buhari’s loyalists to rally behind a strong northern candidate within APC, challenging Tinubu from inside his own party.
Names like Nasir El-Rufai and Aminu Tambuwal have already been whispered in political corridors. If the North unites behind a single alternative, it could set off a fierce internal war, splitting APC and forcing Tinubu into a survival battle before even facing the opposition.
A close associate of a former Buhari minister hinted at this possibility: “The North doesn’t forget. If it feels used and abandoned, it finds a new path.”
2. The Shadow Hand Behind an Opposition Candidate
Rather than waging a direct war, Buhari’s camp could take a more discreet but equally effective approach—silently backing a formidable opposition candidate.
This playbook has been used before. In 2019, internal sabotage nearly cost APC Kano State. If the same strategy is applied on a national scale in 2027, it could weaken Tinubu where he once had dominance.
If PDP or NNPP presents a strong northern figure, Buhari’s men could ensure a quiet yet decisive shift of northern votes, leaving Tinubu’s campaign scrambling for support.
3. Turning Public Opinion Against Tinubu
Beyond elections, politics is about perception. Buhari’s loyalists could wage a long, calculated campaign to erode Tinubu’s support by amplifying issues of economic hardship and insecurity.
With rising inflation, food crises, and banditry plaguing the North, Buhari’s allies don’t need to attack Tinubu openly. They only need to let the frustration simmer, using influential religious leaders, traditional rulers, and grassroots mobilization to turn public sentiment.
Political analyst Dr. Yusuf Ibrahim warned: “In Nigerian politics, silence is dangerous. If Buhari’s camp starts speaking through the suffering of the people, Tinubu will be in trouble before 2027 even begins.”
The Big Question: Is APC Heading for a 2015-Style Collapse?
APC’s strength has always been in the alliance between the North and the Southwest. But history has shown that when the North withdraws its support, the ruling party crumbles. It happened to PDP in 2015 when Buhari’s emergence shattered Jonathan’s presidency.
Could the same fate be awaiting Tinubu?
Will Tinubu Strike First or Watch His Empire Crumble?
For now, Buhari watches in silence. But his loyalists are making moves—the question is, will Tinubu act before it’s too late?