by Mohammed Bello Doka
3 November, 2026.
After my last article debunked the false narrative from the APC and their sponsored media voices that the North has never criticized Buhari while in power, they seem to have shifted the goalpost. Now they accuse the North of being betrayers and being ungrateful—that, quote and unquote, the Southwest made Buhari president in 2015 after many failed attempts. Some were even more arrogant, claiming that Tinubu singlehandedly made Buhari president. This is the most absurd, the most delusional, and the most outrageous continuously repeated lie in the debate for the soul of Nigeria in 2027. Here is the rebuttal, and as usual, it is a total destruction of falsity, fallacies, and attempted blackmail and manipulation.
Can the Southwest give what it doesn't have? Before Buhari, had the Southwest ever voted a winning presidential ticket in the history of Nigeria? The answer is no. From 1979, when Obafemi Awolowo lost to Shehu Shagari, to 1983, when Awolowo lost again to Shagari, the Southwest backed the losing candidate . In 1993, Moshood Abiola won the June 12 election, but the military annulled it before he could take office . In 1999, the Southwest largely backed Olu Falae, another Yoruba man, while Obasanjo won with northern votes—Obasanjo himself later admitted that the Southwest did not vote for him in 1999 or 2003 . In 2011, the Southwest voted massively for Goodluck Jonathan, not for Nuhu Ribadu, the candidate Tinubu's party fielded . So the historical record is clear: the Southwest has never been the decisive force in a Nigerian presidential election. It has always been a swing region, a supporting actor, never the author of the final outcome.
And what did the Southwest get in return for finally backing a winner in 2015? It got one of the most powerful vice presidents in Nigerian history, Yemi Osinbajo. It got the presidential ticket of the ruling party in 2023. And even then, when Tinubu was on the ballot as the Southwest's own son, the region could not deliver two of its most important states. Lagos, the crown jewel, the political base Tinubu built over two decades, was lost to Peter Obi . Osun was lost to Atiku Abubakar. Ask the question again: can the Southwest give Buhari what it doesn't have? If it cannot even deliver Lagos for its own political godfather, how can it claim to have delivered Nigeria for a northern general?
Now bring up the case of zoning. From 1999 to 2027, the South would have ruled Nigeria for eighteen years if the rotation had been strictly observed—Obasanjo for eight, Jonathan for six, and then a southern successor in 2023. The North, on the other hand, would have had only ten years: Yar'Adua's unfinished term and Buhari's eight. So how is it the turn of the South? The South has already exceeded its share under the 1999 arrangement. The North is not demanding more than its due; it is pointing out that the South has already taken more than its own.
Then trash another constantly repeated line: Nigeria did not begin in 1999. Yes, that is true. Nigeria began in 1960. But in 1966, a group of predominantly southern military officers toppled Nigeria's first democratic government. They killed our Prime Minister, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa. They killed the Premier of Northern Nigeria, Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto, in his own home . They killed the Western Premier, Akintola, but they spared the President, Nnamdi Azikiwe, and other key southern leadership. Make it categorically clear: the South refused to add the zoning clause into the junta's manual because they intended to destroy the North—the same project Tinubu is apparently continuing now. The South should apologize for ushering Nigeria into decades of dictatorship before asking for a deficit in a democratic government where zoning was first introduced by a military arrangement that the South now wants to weaponize against the North.
Another point: the South's support for Jonathan when power should have returned to the North after he completed Yar'Adua's tenure. Northern elites argued that Yar'Adua's death did not mean the North had used up its turn, but Jonathan ran anyway, and the South backed him . That was a violation of the zoning agreement, committed with the South's full support. And what about Tinubu himself? He supported two northerners before Buhari—Atiku Abubakar in 2007 and Nuhu Ribadu in 2011. Why didn't he make them presidents? In 2011, Ribadu won only one state, Osun, and the Southwest voted for Jonathan instead . Tinubu actively worked against Buhari until it became clear to him that his only chance of becoming president of Nigeria was through Buhari. But today, some people have the effrontery to accuse the North of betrayal—the same people who lost Lagos to the Obidients when their most honored son was on the ballot.
The Southwest occupies the unenviable position of the unchallenged kings and queens of betrayal and backstabbing. This claim that the North is ungrateful is only a confirmation of that record. The Southwest betrayed Awolowo by letting him lose twice. It betrayed Falae by letting Obasanjo win with northern votes. It betrayed Ribadu by voting for Jonathan. It betrayed Buhari by claiming sole credit for a victory the North delivered. And it betrayed Tinubu by losing Lagos when he needed it most. But just as Nigeria did not begin in 1999, Nigeria will not end in 2027. The North has fielded its candidate, and the Southwest and it's vuvuzela will discover once again that it cannot give what it does not have.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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