by Mohammed Bello Doka
4 August, 2026.
After all these calculations, some people will jump up to tell us that Nigeria did not begin in 1999. That argument is misleading. Because in 1966, when a group of southern military officers toppled Nigeria's first elected government, they did not include zoning in the Junta's manual. Thus, no one should blame the North for not adding what the South itself refused to add. If the South wants to lecture anyone on zoning, let them first explain why they did not think of rotation when they were busy terminating Nigeria's First Republic with bullets and bayonets.
But let us move past 1966 and focus on the Fourth Republic, because this is where the South's hypocrisy becomes not just evident but damning. The zoning arrangement was a gentleman's agreement reached in 1998, and the South was the first to benefit. Olusegun Obasanjo, a Southerner, took office in 1999 and ruled for eight full years. By 2007, the agreement dictated that power must return to the North. That was the deal. That was the understanding upon which Nigeria's nascent democracy was built. Yet, what did the South do when it was time to honour that agreement? They did not prepare to hand over. Instead, Obasanjo launched a brazen scheme to amend the constitution and run for a third term. Let that sink in. The very first beneficiary of the zoning arrangement, the very first Southerner to taste power under this new democratic order, immediately tried to abolish the arrangement that brought him to power. This was not a later mistake or a momentary lapse in judgment. This was clear, undeniable proof that the South never intended to keep the agreement. From the very beginning, they viewed zoning as a temporary convenience, a ladder to climb, and once they reached the top, they wanted to pull that ladder up behind them. They wanted permanent Southern domination. If Obasanjo had succeeded in 2006, there would have been no zoning today. The South would have kept power indefinitely, and they would have justified it with the same hollow rhetoric they now use to attack the North.
That third-term gambit failed, but the South's hunger did not fade. Power reluctantly shifted to the North with the election of Umaru Musa Yar'Adua in 2007. But the North's turn was cut short by tragedy when Yar'Adua died in 2010. His deputy, Goodluck Jonathan, a Southerner, constitutionally took over. That was not the problem. The problem came when Jonathan, after completing Yar'Adua's remaining three years, decided to contest the 2011 election. The zoning agreement clearly dictated that power should return to the North to complete its full eight-year slot. But Jonathan ran, and he won, swallowing the North's turn. He did not stop there. In 2015, after serving seven combined years as president, Jonathan ran again, completely trampling on the zoning arrangement that had given him his start. The South cheered him both times. Southern governors, Southern elders, and Southern intellectuals all rallied behind Jonathan, abandoning zoning without a second thought. They had already shown their hand with Obasanjo's third-term bid, and Jonathan's violations only confirmed what we already knew: the South does not believe in zoning. They only believe in power.
Now, fast forward to 2027. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Southerner, is currently serving the first term of the South's current eight-year slot. By 2027, the South would have held presidential power for approximately 18 years in the Fourth Republic, compared to about 10 years for the North. Yet the same Southern voices that cheered Obasanjo's third-term attempt and Jonathan's double violations now want to parade themselves as the defenders of rotational justice. They want to lecture Atiku Abubakar, a Northerner, on the sanctity of zoning. They want to tell him to wait until 2031 because it is "the South's turn." They want the North to respect an agreement that the South has spent the last two decades mocking, violating, and trying to abolish.
This is the height of intellectual dishonesty. The South cannot point fingers at Atiku when their own history is stained with the very sin they accuse him of. If zoning is sacred, why did Obasanjo try to break it in 2006? If zoning is binding, why did Jonathan run in 2011 and again in 2015? The answer is simple: zoning is only sacred to the South when it serves their interest. When it does not, it becomes an inconvenient obstacle to be swept aside. They want the North to be bound by rules that they themselves refused to follow. They want the North to be patient while they have never been patient. They want the North to step aside while they have never stepped aside.
And what of the argument that Nigeria did not begin in 1999? The South loves to use this historical deflection whenever their hypocrisy is exposed. They say zoning is a PDP creation, not a national law, and therefore the North cannot claim it as a right. But this argument collapses under its own weight. If zoning is merely a party convention and not binding, then why are Southerners using it today to block Atiku? If it is not a national law, why are they demanding that the North respect it? You cannot have it both ways. You cannot dismiss zoning when it is your turn to give up power and then elevate it to a moral imperative when it is your turn to keep power. That is not politics. That is pure, unvarnished hypocrisy.
The South's moral authority on zoning is zero. They broke the arrangement first with Obasanjo's third-term bid, proving they never intended to keep it. They broke it again with Jonathan's two violations. They cheered each time. They celebrated each breach. And now, with a straight face, they want to lecture the North on respect for rotation. They want to blame Atiku for something they themselves have done more egregiously and more repeatedly. The pot is calling the kettle black, and the pot is far blacker.
Let us be blunt. The South has no moral ground to stand on. None whatsoever. Every time they open their mouths to lecture Atiku or the North on zoning, they should be reminded of Obasanjo's third-term bid. They should be reminded of Jonathan's 2011 and 2015 violations. They should be reminded that the South's first act upon tasting power was to try to keep it forever. They are the architects of the very disrespect they now claim to lament. They are the original violators of the zoning arrangement, and they have no right to demand fidelity from anyone.
If the South wants to be taken seriously in 2027, they must first apologize for their own sins. They must acknowledge that they never intended to keep the agreement from the very beginning. They must admit that they are only interested in zoning when it benefits them. Until they do that, their lectures are nothing but empty noise. The North should not listen. The North should not be intimidated. And Atiku should not be deterred. The South has no moral ground to lecture anyone on zoning. Not now. Not ever.
And to those who advocate that we should go our separate ways, please feel free to do so. I assure you that you won't be missed. Just don't ask the North to do it for you. If you want to go, so be it.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
Abuja Network News
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