12 February, 2026
by Mohammed Bello Doka
History, they say, has a sense of humor. In 1994, amid the iron grip of late General Sani Abacha, a young senator named Bola Tinubu left Nigeria and went into exile.
In February 2026, a former governor named Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai returned to Abuja, fully aware that investigations, political hostility, and public confrontation awaited him.
One left.
One returned.
That is not propaganda. That is timeline. This is fact.
1993–1998: Exit Under Pressure
On November 17, 1993, Abacha seized power, dissolving democratic structures. By 1994, Tinubu had departed Nigeria. He would not return until after Abacha’s sudden death in June 1998, when the transition to civilian rule began.
Supporters frame that departure as strategic survival under a military dictatorship. I reject that convenient mythology. Survival is instinct; courage is choice. If exile was strategy, then let us call it what it was — strategy, not heroism.
Critics call it retreat. On this point, the critics are closer to the bone.
What is undisputed is this:
There is no publicly available arrest warrant naming Tinubu from that period.
No gazetted criminal indictment.
No confirmed official arrest or detention record published in regime archives or national dailies.
No publicly accessible formal charges.
The exile narrative rests largely on accounts of threat, fear, and repression common to the era. Yes, Abacha’s regime was notorious for its harsh treatment of opponents. But regarding Tinubu specifically, the publicly archived record shows no formal prosecution document.
We are told he was in danger. We are told the climate was hostile. But documentation matters. History demands evidence.
Courage sometimes travels with context. And sometimes, it travels with luggage.
2023–2026: Return Under Scrutiny
Fast forward three decades.
On February 25, 2023, Tinubu was elected President of Nigeria. By August 2023, El-Rufai — once a visible campaign ally — was nominated for ministerial appointment but rejected by the Senate. The political relationship cooled quickly.
Between 2024 and 2026, investigations reportedly intensified over financial matters tied to El-Rufai’s tenure as governor of Kaduna State, Minister of FCT even during his days in the BPE. Government supporters describe it as accountability. I see something else. Nigerians see something else.
Accountability is consistent. Accountability does not awaken only when alliances sour. When former allies suddenly become primary targets of institutional energy, Nigerians are not foolish — we recognise selective heat when we feel it.
Call it due process if you like. But due process does not conveniently trail political disagreement nor tilt towards political opponents and ignore friends and cronies.
12 February, 2026, amid rising tension and public speculation, El-Rufai returned to Nigeria rather than remain abroad. He publicly stated he would not flee. He would face whatever came, he even predicted his arrest.
He could have stayed away. He did not.
Where one once boarded a flight outward, the other boarded a flight home.
The Power Reversal
In 1994:
Tinubu was outside power.
Abacha controlled the state.
Exile was the choice.
In 2026:
Tinubu controls the executive branch.
State institutions operate under his administration.
El-Rufai faces investigation and political isolation.
The former exile now presides over the instruments of the state.
The former ally now confronts them.
To supporters of the president, this is governance and due process. I do not accept that framing without scrutiny. Governance should not look like pressure applied unevenly. Due process should not feel like political choreography.
Nigeria no longer operates under military decrees. Courts function. Media speaks. Civil society remains vocal. But institutions, when activated selectively, can exert pressure just as effectively as decrees once did.
That is not hysteria. That is political reality.
Courage: Context or Character?
Was Tinubu’s exile an act of prudence under a dictatorship? Perhaps. But prudence is not the same as bravery.
Is El-Rufai’s return an act of defiance within a democracy? Absolutely.
Here lies the uncomfortable question:
If exile was justified as survival under repression, what explains aggressive pursuit under democracy?
It is easy to speak of resistance when one is resisting. It is harder to remember that language when one is governing.
Tinubu once occupied the moral high ground of opposition politics — invoking June 12, sacrifice, democratic struggle. Yet today, critics question whether the tone of his administration reflects that same spirit or contradicts it.
El-Rufai, for all his controversies, has chosen confrontation over absence. He has chosen noise over silence. He has chosen presence over precaution.
That is not neutrality. That is nerve.
The Hypocrisy Question
History has a cruel habit of testing former dissidents when they become powerful.
Tinubu once stood on the side of those claiming persecution.
Today, he stands on the side of power.
El-Rufai claims he is being targeted.
Tinubu’s camp insists it is accountability.
I choose to examine patterns, not slogans nor political gymnastics.
Between those two narratives lies the question of courage.
Is courage the art of surviving danger — or the act of standing before it?
Final Word
In 1994, one man left Nigeria under a military ruler.
In 2026, another man returned to Nigeria under a civilian president.
One chapter was written from abroad.
The other is being written at home.
History will record both.
And Nigerians will decide which one reads more like courage.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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Opinion