10 January, 2026
by Mohammed Bello Doka
I began this exercise convinced the number would stop at 12. Knowing how Nigerian politicians think—how they recycle hope, repackage hardship, and relaunch the same assurances at election time—I started listing the promises President Bola Tinubu will unfailingly make to Nigerians before December 2026.
But every time I tried to cut one off the list, I failed.
I returned to the list again and again. Twelve refused to hold. One more always insisted on staying. In the end, it became 13.
That’s when the irony hit me.
In many Western cultures, 13 is considered an unlucky number—so unlucky that buildings skip the 13th floor, airlines avoid row 13, hotels omit room 13, and Friday the 13th is feared as cursed. The superstition—triskaidekaphobia—comes from old religious and mythological beliefs:
At the Last Supper, there were 13 people, and the 13th—Judas—betrayed Jesus.
In Norse mythology, Loki arrived as the 13th guest at a feast in Valhalla, triggering chaos and death.
Across traditions, 12 is seen as complete (12 months, 12 apostles, 12 zodiac signs); 13 is the disruption—one too many.
Nigeria doesn’t traditionally fear 13. Our cultures have different numerologies and meanings. But the symbolism here is too perfect to ignore: if Nigerians give Tinubu another chance, they may be unlucky again—not by superstition, but by experience.
That realization forced a deeper review. I went back to the promises themselves. And then it became obvious—devastatingly obvious.
These 13 promises are not predictions at all. They are repetitions.
Tinubu already made every one of them during the 2022–early 2023 electioneering campaigns. Often in almost identical words. Often with timelines that have already expired.
What follows is not opinion. It is record.
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The 13 Promises — Then and Now
1. Constant, affordable electricity
Then: During the 2022 campaign, Tinubu repeatedly vowed to deliver constant power, famously saying: “If I don’t give you constant electricity within four years, don’t vote for me when I come back for a second term.”
Documented: Punch Newspapers, 21 October 2022, in its manifesto coverage.
Now: Grid collapses remain routine; January 2026 alone recorded multiple collapses. Nigerians still live on generators, paying higher tariffs after electricity subsidy removal.
2. Total defeat of terrorism, banditry and kidnapping
Then: The Renewed Hope manifesto promised to “obliterate terror, kidnapping and banditry from the face of our nation.”
Where: Manifesto unveiling, 20 October 2022, State House Banquet Hall, Abuja.
Published: Punch Newspapers, 20 October 2022.
Now: NBS data shows over 614,000 killed, 2.23 million kidnapped, and ₦2.23 trillion paid in ransom.
3. Millions of new jobs, especially for youth
Then: Tinubu promised to cut youth unemployment in half and create 1 million ICT jobs within 24 months.
Published: Punch, 21 October 2022.
Now: Youth unemployment remains crushing; the 24-month window expired long ago. Programmes like N-Power were abandoned, with beneficiaries protesting nationwide over unpaid stipends.
4. Food security and agricultural revolution
Then: Promised expansion of cultivated land from 35% to 65%, irrigation projects, mechanisation.
Published: Punch, 21 October 2022.
Now: Food prices are 3–5 times higher than in early 2023, worsened by fuel subsidy removal and transport costs.
5. Affordable housing for every family
Then: Social housing, low-interest mortgages, Land Use Act review.
Published: Punch, 21 October 2022.
Now: Rents have exploded nationwide, while housing delivery remains marginal.
6. Free, quality education and human capital development
Then: Student loans, STEM investment, ending out-of-school children.
Published: Punch, 21 October 2022.
Now: Student loans exist on paper; education access remains strained.
7. Universal healthcare coverage
Then: Universal Health Coverage, expanded insurance, subsidy savings redirected to health.
Published: Punch, 21 October 2022.
Now: Healthcare costs continue to rise; coverage remains limited.
8. World-class infrastructure revolution
Then: Roads, rails, ports, airports, water projects.
Published: Punch, 20 October 2022.
Now: Selective projects, no nationwide relief effect.
9. A $1 trillion economy
Then: Tinubu spoke repeatedly in 2022 of building a $1 trillion economy through diversification.
Now: The naira has weakened from about ₦480/$ (May 2023) to ₦1,350–₦1,450/$ (Feb 2026).
10. Eradicate poverty
Then: Expand cash transfers, ensure no child sleeps hungry.
Published: Punch, 21 October 2022.
Now: Poverty deepened; millions more pushed below survival thresholds. Programmes like TraderMoni quietly disappeared.
11. Youth and women empowerment
Then: 35% women participation, youth inclusion in governance.
Published: Punch, 21 October 2022.
Now: Credit expansion promises contrast sharply with abandoned youth schemes and rising VAT burdens.
12. Zero tolerance for corruption
Then: Reform civil service, strengthen judicial integrity, eliminate waste.
Published: Punch, 20 October 2022.
Now: Corruption rhetoric persists; trust does not.
13. Climate resilience and green economy
Then: Great Green Wall, Lake Chad restoration, renewable energy, carbon neutrality by 2060.
Published: Punch, 21 October 2022.
Now: Climate promises remain long-term abstractions amid daily survival crises.
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Why These Promises Are Being Repeated at All
If these promises were fulfilled, there would be no need to repeat them.
That leaves only two damning explanations for the repetition itself:
First Damning Scenario:
Tinubu fulfilled some of these promises, yet keeps repeating all 13 anyway—meaning the repetition is a deliberate attempt to deceive Nigerians, to present old or partial outcomes as future rewards and manufacture urgency where none exists.
Second Damning Scenario:
Tinubu fulfilled none of them—meaning the repetition is an implicit admission of failure, with four years lost and the same unfulfilled promises simply postponed to another election cycle.
There is no third explanation. Either way, the repetition indicts the presidency.
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Why He Will Not Fulfil Any of These Promises
There are only two possible scenarios, and both guarantee non-fulfilment.
Scenario One: If Tinubu Wins in 2027
He will ignore the same promises once again. The evidence is already before Nigerians: he never meant to fulfil them in the first place. Programmes meant for the vulnerable—TraderMoni, N-Power, and other social interventions—were abandoned. Fuel and electricity subsidies were removed. VAT was increased. Hardship deepened. Repetition, not delivery, has been the governing pattern.
Scenario Two: If Tinubu Loses in 2027
He will still not fulfil them—because he will no longer be in office. The promises will simply expire, as many 2023 promises already have, unfulfilled and unanswered.
There is no third scenario where these promises are realised.
The Inescapable Question
If these promises were fulfilled, why are they being repeated?
A government that has delivered campaigns on closure.
This one campaigns on continuation.
Same promises. New timeline. Same pain.
Thirteen promises. Thirteen repetitions.
If Nigerians choose it again, it won’t be because the warning wasn’t clear.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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Opinion