26 February, 2026
by Mohammed Bello Doka
Dear Arewa, wake up! The fire is no longer a distant rumble on the mountain—it's roaring through your domain, scorching everything in its path. This isn't some far-off threat; it's here, now, devouring lives, homes, and futures right in the heart of Northern Nigeria. Bandits raid villages like packs of wolves, jihadists from Boko Haram and ISWAP bomb and behead with impunity, and farmer-herder clashes turn fertile lands into graveyards. If we don't act, this blaze will consume us all—no one spared, from the emir in his palace to the farmer in his hut, from the governor in his mansion to the youth scrolling on social media. This is an existential threat, a monster that won't stop until the North is reduced to ashes. And let me be clear: I'm calling out everyone. The traditional leaders, the media, the government, the business and political elites, the youth, the students, the influencers—all of you are part of the problem. No sugarcoating, no excuses. The North must rise, or it will fall.
Let's start with a quick look back, because history matters, but not as much as the burning present. The seeds of this chaos were planted long ago. In the pre-colonial days, there was sporadic banditry—highway robbers and cattle rustlers exploiting weak authority. Colonial rule deepened divisions, pitting ethnic groups against each other for control. Post-independence in 1960, poverty, corruption, and ethnic tensions simmered. But the real explosion came in 2009 with Boko Haram's insurgency in the Northeast, born from radical preacher Mohammed Yusuf's hatred of Western education. After his killing, under Abubakar Shekau, they unleashed hell—capturing towns, abducting girls like in Chibok in 2014. By 2016, ISWAP splintered off, more organized, aligning with ISIS. Meanwhile, in the Northwest, banditry started around 2011 in Zamfara as cattle rustling, fueled by desertification and resource fights. It spread like wildfire to Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto, and beyond. Farmer-herder clashes in the North Central, or Middle Belt, escalated from the mid-2010s, driven by climate change pushing herders south into farmers' lands. Over the years, this has killed tens of thousands—estimates say over 30,000 from Boko Haram alone—and displaced millions. But that's the past. Today, in 2026, the fire is hotter than ever, and it's burning us alive.
Look at the grim numbers—they paint a picture of horror that's impossible to ignore. In the first half of 2025 alone, at least 2,266 people were killed by bandits and insurgents in the North. That's more deaths than all of 2024 combined! Civilian fatalities in the Northwest, Northeast, and North Central regions surged, with over 3,100 killed in the Northwest in 2025. From 2023 to 2025, the Northwest saw 3,600 violent incidents, leading to 9,380 deaths. Kidnappings? A staggering 716 incidents in the same period, peaking at 290 in 2024, mostly in Zamfara, Katsina, and Kaduna. These aren't just stats—these are mothers ripped from their children, fathers slaughtered in fields, entire villages erased.
Displacement is a nightmare on its own. Over 2.2 million people uprooted in the Northeast, more than 650,300 in the Northwest, and nearly 601,700 in the North Central by October 2025. Families crammed into camps with no food, no water, dying from disease and hunger. Food insecurity grips millions—5.8 to 7 million in severe need in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states. Farmers can't plant because bandits demand "levies"—they paid NGN 139.5 million (about USD 96,996) between 2020 and 2023 just to survive. And the bandits? Nearly 30,000 operating in loose gangs, some as big as a thousand fighters, hiding in forests and striking with motorbikes, AK-47s, and even drones.
In the two years since President Bola Tinubu's government took power, at least 10,217 people have been killed in attacks across Benue, Edo, Katsina, Kebbi, Plateau, Sokoto, and Zamfara. Benue alone lost 6,896 lives, Plateau 2,630. New groups like Lakurawa in Sokoto and Kebbi, and Mamuda in Kwara, are emerging, sacking hundreds of villages. Boko Haram and ISWAP launch daily attacks in Borno and Yobe, using IEDs and ambushes. Farmer-herder clashes in Benue, Plateau, and Nasarawa have displaced thousands more, turning the Middle Belt into a blood-soaked battleground. Over 600 killed just last month in 2025. This is the grim reality: a North where schools are empty, markets are ghost towns, and roads are death traps.
Why is this an existential threat? Because if unchecked, it will destroy the North completely. Economies are crumbling—agriculture, the backbone, is paralyzed. Farmers abandon fields for fear of death; herders lose livestock to rustlers. Billions lost in output, with poverty rates over 70-80% in states like Sokoto and Zamfara. Food prices skyrocket, leading to famine-like conditions. Social fabric tears apart: ethnic hatred boils over, with Hausa farmers arming against Fulani herders, vigilantes becoming killers themselves. Youth are radicalized—joining bandits for a cow or a stipend, or jihadists for twisted ideology. Trauma scars generations: women and girls raped, children orphaned (over 25,000 in Zamfara alone). Over 200,000 internally displaced in the Northwest, fleeing to squalid camps or neighboring countries. If this continues, the North becomes a failed region—ungoverned spaces where jihadists like ISWAP set up caliphates, bandits rule as warlords, and the state collapses. Migration waves will flood the South and abroad, sparking more conflicts. The North's rich culture, history, and potential—gone, reduced to ruins like Somalia or parts of the Sahel.
And by extension, this fire spreads to West Africa. Porous borders mean bandits raid into Niger and Benin, jihadists link with Sahel groups like those in Mali. Nigeria, the giant of Africa, weakens ECOWAS. Coups, migrations to Europe, transnational crime explode. Look at how Boko Haram already spilled into Chad and Cameroon. If the North falls, West Africa burns too—a rut of insecurity, war economies, and endless suffering.
Now, let's get harsh—because no one is innocent here. Starting with traditional leaders: Emirs, district heads, village chiefs—you're supposed to be the guardians of our people, but many of you are in bed with the bandits. Providing intel, safe havens, sharing ransoms. In Zamfara, emirs were suspended for ties to criminals. You negotiate shady deals that fall apart, letting violence surge. Your silence or complicity lets the fire rage. Wake up or be consumed!
The media: You report the killings, but too often sensationalize without pushing for change. Downplaying root causes, ignoring elite corruption. Instead of holding power to account, you chase clicks. You're muddying the waters, dancing around the truth while bodies pile up.
Government: Federal, state, local—you've failed spectacularly. Military overstretched, corrupt, with "stunning security failures." Super-camps create vacuums for bandits. Amnesties collapse, borders porous with arms flowing in. No justice, no development. You're letting the North burn while you bicker in Abuja.
Business and political elites: You profit from chaos. Involved in illegal mining that funds bandits, sponsoring thugs for elections, diverting security funds. In Zamfara's gold fields, you pay "protection" to criminals. Your mansions are safe, but villages burn. You're the fuel to this fire.
The youth: Unemployed, angry, you're the foot soldiers. Joining bandits for quick cash, radicalized online. But many just sit idle, ignoring the blaze. You're the future—yet you're letting it slip away.
Students: In universities and schools, you protest fees but not the abductions closing your classrooms. Over 300 schools shut in the North, thousands kidnapped since 2014. Study or perish!
Influencers: Dancing on TikTok and Twitter while villages burn. Muddying yourselves with superficial posts, ignoring the real fight. Your platforms could rally, but you entertain.
Every class of Northerners: From the rich in Kano to the poor in Maiduguri, we're all guilty of apathy, denial, division. Ethnic blame games—Fulani vs. Hausa, Muslim vs. Christian—feed the fire. No one is spared; the monster devours all.
To the governors, senators, House of Representatives members, local government chairmen: If you don't rise up now, you'll be ruling in exile. History screams warnings. Look at Omar al-Bashir of Sudan—ruled 30 years, ousted by protests and army in 2019, detained, now facing trials. Blaise Compaoré in Burkina Faso—27 years in power, forced out by uprising in 2014, fled to exile. Michel Djotodia in Central African Republic—seized power in 2013, ousted in 2014 amid chaos, exiled. Mengistu Haile Mariam of Ethiopia—overthrown in 1991 after brutal rule, exiled to Zimbabwe. Mobutu Sese Seko in DR Congo—32 years, driven out by rebels in 1997, died in exile. Mohamed Siad Barre in Somalia—21 years, ousted in 1991 civil war, exiled to Nigeria then Kenya. Idi Amin of Uganda—deposed in 1979, lived 24 years in Saudi exile. Samuel Doe of Liberia—ousted and killed in 1990 civil war. These leaders thought they were untouchable, but insecurity and unrest swallowed them. Your palaces will be looted, your states ungovernable. Rise or run!
But there's a way out—if we act boldly. First, security: Beef up rural policing with community involvement. Early-warning systems, cross-border patrols like the Lake Chad Multinational Joint Task Force that's curbed Boko Haram in parts. End military corruption; equip forces properly.
Second, tackle roots: Massive youth jobs—vocational training, agriculture schemes. Poverty alleviation in rural areas. Education reforms to keep kids in school, deradicalization programs with financial incentives.
Third, livestock reform: Phased ranching and grazing reserves, voluntary, with credit and vet services. Like in Ethiopia, where sedentarization reduced conflicts.
Fourth, mediation: Local peace committees involving traditional leaders (the honest ones), farmers, herders. Justice for victims—prosecute complicit elites, end impunity.
Fifth, regional cooperation: ECOWAS intelligence sharing, joint ops against cross-border threats. Sahel countries have seen success with patrols.
Sixth, community-led: Empower vigilantes under state control, use media and influencers for awareness campaigns. Students, youth—organize rallies, demand action.
Implement the National Livestock Transformation Plan properly—ranching to end open grazing clashes. Draw from Mali's dialogues that cut violence in Mopti. Kenya's community policing in pastoral areas stopped rustling.
It needs political will, funding, inclusion. No more excuses. Dear Arewa, the fire burns—extinguish it or be ashes. The North's survival depends on us all.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
Abuja Network News
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