If Tinubu is in control of over 90 percent of Nigeria’s political class, why is he still afraid of the North that he loves to hate?
This is no longer a casual political debate. It is no longer an abstract constitutional conversation. What is unfolding before Nigeria’s eyes is a dangerous power play, and the North would be naïve to pretend otherwise.
When the Chief of Staff to the President, Rt. Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, publicly called for constitutional backing of power rotation between the North and the South, he was not merely offering an intellectual suggestion. He was lighting a match in a room already soaked in petrol. And the North must now ask itself a hard, uncomfortable question: Is this the beginning of a coordinated attempt to legally fence the North out of power?
This intervention did not come from a neutral quarter. It came from the very heart of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidency — from a man who does not speak on sensitive national issues without presidential awareness. In Nigeria’s power structure, Chiefs of Staff do not speculate. They signal.
And this signal is loud.
Power Rotation: From Trust to Trap
For over two decades, Nigeria survived on a fragile but necessary understanding: power would rotate between North and South as a way of managing diversity, preventing domination, and preserving national balance. It was not perfect, but it worked because it was voluntary, flexible, and rooted in elite consensus.
The moment power rotation is dragged into the Constitution, it stops being a bridge and becomes a weapon. What was once a political understanding becomes a legal tool — rigid, enforceable, and open to manipulation by those who control state power.
The North must ask: Who benefits from freezing this arrangement into law now? Certainly not a region grappling with insecurity, poverty, and political marginalisation.
Gbajabiamila Is Not an Accidental Messenger
Let us be clear and honest. Femi Gbajabiamila is not an activist. He is not a retired politician seeking relevance. He is the Chief of Staff to President Tinubu — the gatekeeper, the strategist, the political engine-room manager.
In Nigerian politics, nothing this sensitive leaves the presidential orbit by accident. This was not a slip of the tongue. It was a calculated signal, and the North would be dangerously complacent to dismiss it as harmless.
If this idea were truly about national unity, why is it emerging now? Why not after 2027? Why not after Tinubu’s presidency? Why when Northern politicians are beginning to reorganise and assert their constitutional right to contest power?
2027: Why the Rules Are Being Rewritten Before the Game
The timing is everything — and it is deeply suspicious.
Nigeria is inching towards the end of Tinubu’s first term. Yet already, the conversation is shifting from governance to containment. From persuasion to pre-emption. From politics to rule-setting.
This is how political battles are won before they are fought: not at the ballot box, but by quietly narrowing the field. By reframing eligibility. By turning democratic competition into a legal obstacle course.
The North must understand what this means. Today, it is called “power rotation.” Tomorrow, it could be something else — all dressed up in the language of unity, fairness, and national interest.
Northern Governors and Senators: Will They Stand or Submit?
Some will argue that the North is powerless because Tinubu controls governors and lawmakers. This is a lie we must stop telling ourselves.
Northern political leaders have pushed back before, and the evidence is recent and public:
- In March 2024, Northern senators openly challenged the Tinubu administration over the 2024 budget, accusing it of padding, imbalance, and worsening economic hardship.
- In 2024, Northern governors and senators mobilised against aspects of Tinubu’s tax reform proposals, warning that they would cripple already struggling Northern states.
- Even when support has been publicly declared, it has been conditional, not blind.
Governors and senators are not slaves. They are political actors who respond to pressure — especially when their region’s future is at stake.
The real danger is silence. History will not forgive Northern leaders who choose comfort over courage.
Why the North Sees This as a Direct Threat
This is not paranoia. This is political realism.
The North is already bleeding:
- Insecurity remains endemic — banditry, kidnappings, insurgency.
- Poverty is deepest in the North, as confirmed by Nigeria’s Multidimensional Poverty Index.
- Hunger is rising, with the United Nations warning in early 2026 that over 30 million Nigerians face acute food insecurity, concentrated largely in Northern states.
- Human rights abuses continue, with hundreds killed or kidnapped in single months, according to the National Human Rights Commission.
Against this backdrop, any attempt — real or perceived — to legally constrain Northern political relevance is not just political. It is existential.
Perception matters. And the perception is clear: the rules are being adjusted while the North is weakest.
The Myth of an All-Powerful National Assembly
Yes, the National Assembly is seen as executive-friendly. But even loyal lawmakers understand one truth: power turns.
Constitutional amendments require supermajorities and state-level approvals. Northern lawmakers know that a law used to weaken their region today can be used against them tomorrow. When survival is at stake, party loyalty collapses.
The North must remind its representatives that history is watching.
Tinubu’s Record in the North: Bias, Neglect, and Quiet Hostility
The Presidency has defended its appointments with statistics. But statistics do not erase lived reality.
Northern lawmakers continue to complain of:
- Budgetary neglect
- Infrastructure imbalance
- Security failures
- Slow or selective responses to Northern crises
When insecurity ravages the North, responses are often late and reactive. When economic pain deepens, the burden falls heaviest on Northern states. When appointments are made, the explanations come after the outrage.
This pattern fuels a dangerous belief: that the North is not merely neglected, but politically inconvenient.
Why Tinubu Is Afraid of 2027
This is the heart of the matter.
Tinubu is not afraid because he is weak. He is afraid because he knows the truth: a united North can end his presidency.
Despite controlling governors, legislators, and party structures, Tinubu understands that:
- Governors defect.
- Alliances collapse.
- Economic anger erodes loyalty.
- Electoral arithmetic still favours the North.
This fear explains the urgency. It explains the signalling. It explains why rules are being discussed before campaigns even begin.
A Warning on National Stability
Nigeria survives on fragile elite bargains. Break them, and the country shakes.
If power rotation becomes a legal battlefield rather than a political understanding, 2027 will not be an election — it will be a confrontation. A zero-sum struggle. A test of endurance.
And the consequences will not be borne by politicians alone.
To the North: This Is a Call to Awareness, Not Hatred
This is not tribalism.
This is not religious extremism.
This is not regional bigotry.
This is about political survival.
The North must speak — loudly, lawfully, and collectively. Governors, senators, elders, youth, civil society, and political movements must demand clarity, fairness, and restraint.
Silence will be interpreted as consent. Division will be exploited. Delay will be fatal.
Conclusion: Resist Today or Regret Tomorrow
There may be no bill yet. There may be no formal proposal on the table. But politics does not wait for paperwork.
Signals are being sent. Lines are being drawn. And history teaches us one brutal lesson: when gentleman’s agreements are suddenly proposed for legal enforcement, trust has already died.
The North must not sleepwalk into irrelevance.
This is the moment to resist — politically, constitutionally, collectively.
Tomorrow may be too late.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]