Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced plans to revise its inflation reporting methodology, marking the first major adjustment to the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) framework in about 15 years.
The planned review follows the recent rebasing of Nigeria’s CPI to 2024, replacing the previous 2009 base year. According to the NBS, the change is necessary to prevent a distorted spike in inflation figures, particularly for December data, that could arise from technical base-year effects rather than actual increases in prices.
Officials explained that under the current approach, using a single-month reference period for the new base year could produce an artificially high year-on-year inflation rate, potentially misleading policymakers, investors and the general public. To address this, the bureau intends to adopt a 12-month average reference period for the base year, which is expected to smooth volatility and provide a more accurate picture of price movements.
As part of its transparency measures, the NBS has indicated it may publish two inflation figures for December—one reflecting the technical impact of the rebasing and another adjusted estimate that better captures underlying inflation trends. The Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, said this approach would help data users clearly distinguish between statistical effects and real changes in consumer prices.
The CPI rebasing also involved updating the basket of goods and services, revising item weights, and aligning classifications with international statistical standards to better reflect current consumption patterns across the country. Economists say such exercises are routine globally but often come with short-term comparability challenges.
Inflation data play a critical role in Nigeria’s economic management, influencing monetary policy decisions, wage negotiations, budget planning and investor confidence. Analysts note that without the proposed methodological adjustment, a sudden spike in headline inflation could trigger unnecessary market anxiety or policy reactions.
The NBS said the revised methodology is expected to take full effect from January, ensuring that subsequent inflation reports more accurately track price developments and strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s official statistics.
Abuja Network News
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