by Mohammed Bello Doka
From the very moment Peter Obi declared — and later confirmed — his intention to run again for the presidency in 2027, the Nigerian political landscape has been awash with expectation, tension, hope, and controversy. Obi’s rise from relative political obscurity to one of the most watched presidential figures in Nigeria over the last decade was seismic — his popularity seemed to defy the old political playbook. But as the race for 2027 unfolds, one undeniable truth emerges: the very force that once electrified his campaign — the Obidient Movement — now threatens to derail it.
Obi’s movement exploded into national consciousness in 2023, sweeping across demographics and galvanising a generation disillusioned with the entrenched APC–PDP duopoly. Scholars and analysts described the Obidient Movement as a cultural and political awakening, rooted in the frustrations and aspirations of young Nigerians seeking accountability, transparency, and a break from patronage politics.
But that energy, once seen as a joyously disruptive asset, has become a double-edged sword. It's now abundantly clear: the Obidient Movement remains Peter Obi’s greatest strength — and his greatest weakness.
The Phenomenon: How Obidients Shocked Nigeria
In 2023, Obi’s run under the Labour Party stunned the political elite and election watchers alike. A movement that began as a hopeful youth mobilisation evolved into a powerful social force. Millions of young Nigerians — across urban centres and rural towns — embraced Obi’s message of economic reform and civic renewal. The Obidients’ presence on social media, in town halls, and on the streets challenged the entrenched belief that only established parties could win at the polls.
That surge was not merely online posturing. In Edo State, for example, the Obidients helped the Labour Party outpoll both the APC and PDP in 12 out of 18 local government areas — a testament to their mobilising power.
Yet, almost from the beginning, the movement’s conduct drew criticism. Much commentary and reporting in 2023 highlighted that while Obi himself emphasised competence over identity, his supporters were frequently accused of intolerance and abrasive rhetoric. Obi publicly disputed that his movement was rooted in tribalism or religion, insisting it was about governance and national renewal.
But the public at large didn’t parse nuances. The movement’s aggressiveness in discourse, especially online, earned it labels such as “social media mob” — a characterization invoked even by political actors like Governor Charles Soludo, who condemned Obidients for their hostility toward dissenting voices.
From Movement to Misstep: Obidients After 2023
Three years on, the Obidient Movement — far from mellowing — appears to have hardened in posture. Rather than pivot to broad coalition-building, a significant faction has embraced a confrontational and absolutist attitude that has frustrated, rather than wooed, prospective allies.
The broader context of Nigeria’s opposition landscape illustrates this tension. In late 2025, Obi formally left the Labour Party and joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Enugu, presenting it as a vehicle for national outreach and an inclusive coalition against the ruling APC. Analysts saw this move as a strategic bid to expand Obi’s platform and build a truly cross-regional ticket capable of challenging President Bola Tinubu’s grip on power.
Obi’s own statements when confirming his 2027 bid were notably tempered, emphasising humility and the overarching needs of the country, rather than personal ambition. “Yes, I will be on the ballot in 2027,” he said, urging a focus on service and collective survival.
Yet, as Obi pivots to coalition politics, his movement remains locked in a standoffish posture. Rather than embracing the diplomatic art of compromise essential in a multiparty contest, a prevailing faction insists on absolutist slogans like “Obi or Nothing” — a framing that fuels internal confidence but alienates the moderate and undecided voters crucial to victory.
The Double-Edged Sword of Identity and Absolutism
Part of the Obidients’ problematic posture stems from how they interpret opposition and criticism. Many label any alternative viewpoint not as a political debate but as betrayal or moral failure. Rather than winning sympathy or persuading skeptical constituencies, this approach deepens divisions and reinforces narratives of sectarian politics — exactly what Obi has tried to move beyond with ADC’s national alliance.
This reality has not gone unnoticed. Amid ADC’s attempt to knit a coalition — including figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar — internal tensions have already surfaced, with reports of “supremacy battles” and rifts over presidential ticket ambitions within the nascent coalition.
Such fissures are precisely where the Obidient Movement’s attitude becomes damaging. While Obi advocates inclusion, his movement’s hardline insistence on purity risks sabotaging the very alliances he needs. Instead of presenting a united front against an incumbent party well-versed in political coalition-building, the opposition risks fracture because of discordant supporter behaviour that contradicts the expressed aims of its leading candidate.
Credibility vs Confrontation: The Psychology of Modern Nigerian Politics
What turns this dynamic into a political liability is Nigeria’s unique socio-political fabric. Voting behavior here is often interpreted through ethno-religious lenses, regardless of campaign intentions. A recent socioeconomic analysis of the 2023 election showed that support for the Labour Party — the vehicle of Obi’s Obidients — correlated with states having higher human development indices, but also intersected with regional and identity narratives more than issue-based reasoning.
The movement’s aggressive posture plays into these interpretations, making many ordinary voters see Obidients not as policy advocates, but as tribal or religious proxies, even when their professed mission is national renewal. Missteps like viral confrontational exchanges or absolutist slogans reinforce fears among Northern Muslim communities that Obi’s support base is unwilling to accept nuance or compromise — a perception rival parties happily exploit.
Enemy Within: Movement Behaviour Undermining Strategy
Even as Obi tries to reposition himself with the ADC’s broader coalition, the Obidient Movement’s unyielding training of political engagement continues to spook potential partners. Rather than acting as bridges, many Obidients replicate the same hostility that fuelled discussions in 2023, frustrating moderates and reinforcing stereotypes of a movement that cannot play in the national political sandbox.
This is not mere commentary but a strategic reality. Obidient representatives have publicly rejected the idea of Obi running as vice president in any coalition, insisting he must be the presidential candidate or they won’t support a ticket — a stance that sharply limits negotiation space.
To many analysts, this kind of absolutism is a stunning self-inflicted wound. In the Nigeria of 2026, winning a national election requires delicate coalition-building, cross-regional trust, and acceptance of compromise — traits that the Obidient Movement’s confrontational posture has yet to demonstrate consistently.
Conclusion: The Movement That Could Save — or Sink — Nigeria
The paradox of Peter Obi’s political journey remains stark. Without Obidients, it’s unlikely he would have risen to national prominence. Their energy propelled him into a national conversation about competence, accountability, and a politics beyond patronage. Yet without a recalibration of that movement’s approach — away from confrontation toward inclusion — Obidient zeal will continue to be the major obstacle to the very success it once seemed destined to secure.
The 2027 election is not merely about candidacy. It’s about whether Nigeria’s electorate believes in unity over absolutism, persuasion over hostility, and inclusion over exclusion. If the Obidient Movement does not evolve, it risks doing what few forces have done in modern Nigerian politics: turning the tide of hope into a vector of defeat.
And that would be the irony of all ironies — that the movement which once promised to change Nigeria might well ensure it doesn’t get the chance.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]