by Mohammed Bello Doka
Nigeria is standing at a dangerous bend in history. Not because fate is cruel, but because leaders are quarrelling while suffering multiplies. Not because democracy has failed by accident, but because division has become a habit at the very moment unity is a duty.
This is not a partisan lament. It is a national alarm.
While opposition leaders argue over platforms, permutations, and personal ambitions, Nigeria is bleeding — quietly, relentlessly — in figures too brutal to ignore and in lives too precious to dismiss.
A Nation in Freefall — Measured, Counted, Confirmed
Between pre–May 29, 2023 and 2024–2025, Nigeria’s social indicators read like the early chapters of a national tragedy:
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Poverty surged from 40–46% to 54–60%.
The number of poor Nigerians exploded from ~90–100 million to ~130–139 million — 30–40 million people pushed into poverty in barely two years.
(Sources: ; ) -
Multidimensional poverty remains above 60%, with population growth worsening the absolute numbers — 133 million Nigerians already trapped in overlapping deprivations.
(Sources: NBS Multidimensional Poverty Index; World Bank) -
Violent deaths have spiked alarmingly:
~2,500–3,000 annually before May 2023, but 6,549 killed between May 2024 and mid-2025, including 570 deaths in April 2025 alone.
(Sources: ; ) -
Kidnappings have more than doubled:
From ~1,000–1,500 per year pre-2023 to 3,804 abducted between May 2024 and mid-2025; 3,012 in just 15 months.
(Sources: NHRC; Nigeria Security Tracker) -
Adult illiteracy rose from ~38% to ~40–41%, swelling the number of illiterate adults from ~60–63 million to ~68–70 million.
(Sources: ; NBS) -
Out-of-school children increased from 18.3 million to ~20 million — 1.7 million more children denied a future.
(Sources: ; UNESCO) -
Inflation peaked at 34.19% in June 2024 — later “easing” to ~16% in 2025, but only after prices had already devastated purchasing power.
(Source: NBS)
These are not abstract numbers. They are children withdrawn from school, families fleeing farms, women widowed by banditry, youths seduced by violence, and communities emptied by fear.
And yet, at this hour, the opposition quarrels.
The Law of Politics: Unity Is Not Optional
Politics obeys iron laws. One of them is unforgiving:
A fragmented opposition cannot defeat a consolidated power.
This is not sentiment. It is mathematics, strategy, and history combined. Authoritarian systems do not fear noise; they fear coordination. They tolerate many small parties; they dread one united alternative.
That is why dominant parties encourage ego clashes, reward defections, and amplify suspicion. Division is not a side-effect of authoritarian drift — it is its oxygen.
When Disunity Opened the Door to Dictators
History has written this lesson repeatedly, often in blood:
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(1930–1933): Democratic parties quarrelled, elites miscalculated, and a legal authoritarian takeover followed — ending in global catastrophe.
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: Opposition fragmentation enabled one-man rule, hyperinflation, and mass emigration that destroyed savings and futures.
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: Infighting weakened resistance; institutions were captured; hunger and exile became national routines.
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: Delayed unity allowed emergency powers to harden into permanent dominance, hollowing democracy.
Different cultures. Different continents. Same script.
When Unity Worked — And Dictators Fell
History is equally clear about what does work:
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: Workers, clergy, liberals, and conservatives united under Solidarity — ideology postponed, freedom prioritized — and one-party rule collapsed.
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: Rivals buried mistrust to end apartheid through a broad coalition that made repression unsustainable.
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: Socialists and conservatives stood together in a single “No” campaign and defeated military rule at the ballot.
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: Seven opposition parties, divided for decades, rallied behind one candidate and ended 22 years of dictatorship.
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: Former enemies formed a single front and broke a 40-year ruling-party stranglehold.
The lesson is brutal and simple:
Unity first. Victory next. Competition later.
Nigeria’s Mirror — And the Price of Delay
Nigeria now displays the same warning signs seen in those histories:
- Expanding dominant-party power
- Defections that hollow out competition
- Selective enforcement of law
- Insecurity used to justify repression
- Suffering that weakens civic resistance
In such moments, delay is not neutral. It strengthens consolidation.
Ask yourselves, opposition leaders:
- How many more children must leave school before unity becomes urgent?
- How many more Nigerians must be buried before egos are buried?
- How many IDP camps must swell before platforms merge?
- How much fear must spread before courage coordinates?
A Plea for the Children, the Displaced, the Poor — and Yourselves
This is not only about the poor, though they suffer first.
It is not only about the weak, though they bleed earliest.
It is also about you.
History is merciless to opposition elites who misjudge authoritarian power. No dictator has ever been just to the opposition leaders who helped him rise.
First they are ignored.
Then isolated.
Then neutralised — by law, by force, or by exile.
Those who imagine that silence, compromise, or fragmentation will save them always learn too late that dictators reward usefulness, not loyalty.
What Unity Requires — And What It Does Not
Unity does not require love, trust, or ideological sameness.
Unity does require discipline, sacrifice, and a minimum programme:
- One coordinated platform or strategy
- One clear message: defend democracy first
- One timetable that puts ambition after survival
Everything else can wait. History proves it must.
The Final Choice
Nigeria is not short of leaders. It is short of coordination.
At this hour, opposition leaders face a stark, inescapable choice:
Unite and save the Republic — or quarrel and watch dictatorship rise.
For the children denied classrooms.
For the displaced sleeping under tarpaulins.
For the poor counting coins against hunger.
And yes — for yourselves, because the first elite casualties of every dictatorship are those who believed it would never come for them.
History is watching.
Nigeria is waiting.