by Mohammed Bello Doka
In the long arc of political history, ruling parties rarely collapse because the opposition suddenly becomes formidable. They fall because power dulls caution, success breeds arrogance, and leaders begin to mistake control of political structures for control of the people.
That is why the recent intervention by Vice-President Kashim Shettima deserves serious attention. Speaking at the APC National Caucus meeting, Shettima warned that the gravest threat facing the ruling All Progressives Congress is not the opposition, but complacency from within.
Delivered in the presence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the warning was striking for its honesty. When a sitting Vice-President invokes the fall of Rome to caution his own party, it signals awareness of a dangerous pattern: dominance can quickly turn into detachment.
Power without fear
APC today commands enormous political power. Governors are defecting, party structures are expanding, and electoral maps increasingly tilt in its favour. But Shettima’s message punctures a comforting illusion—that elite alignment automatically guarantees popular consent.
Political history, especially Nigeria’s recent past, shows otherwise. Parties do not lose elections simply because they lack numbers in caucus meetings; they lose because citizens feel ignored, unheard, and burdened by hardship. Hunger does not defect. Inflation does not cross carpets. Insecurity does not change party colours.
A lesson Nigeria has seen before
Before 2015, the then-ruling party also controlled most states and the federal centre. Confidence turned into complacency. Internal warnings were dismissed. Public anger accumulated quietly—until it exploded at the polls. That chapter remains one of the clearest reminders that political dominance is not immunity.
Shettima’s warning suggests that some within APC remember this lesson, even if others appear intoxicated by the comfort of power.
Defections versus democracy
Much of APC’s confidence heading toward 2027 is built on defections and numerical superiority across geopolitical zones. Yet elections are not won by arithmetic alone. They are won by lived experience.
For millions of Nigerians, the decisive questions remain simple and unforgiving:
Is life more affordable?
Are communities safer?
Is governance responsive and fair?
If these questions continue to attract negative answers, no amount of elite consolidation will fully protect the ruling party.
An internal alarm, not opposition propaganda
What gives Shettima’s speech weight is its source. This was not an opposition attack. It was an internal alarm bell from within the highest levels of government. Such warnings are rare—and often ignored.
If ignored, they become prophecy. If heeded, they become correction.
The road to 2027
As 2027 approaches, APC faces a choice. It can treat Shettima’s words as ceremonial rhetoric and continue business as usual, or it can confront the uncomfortable truth they reveal: power without humility erodes legitimacy.
Democratic decline does not announce itself loudly. It creeps in quietly, masked by applause, defections, and official optimism—until election day delivers a verdict no amount of spin can reverse.
Rome did not fall to invaders. It fell because those in power stopped listening.
Shettima has spoken. History will judge whether his party listened.
Abuja Network News
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