By a Political Analyst
In Osun politics, elections are rarely won by guesswork or sentiment. They are won by cold electoral arithmetic, turnout realities, and strategic ticket balancing. As the All Progressives Congress (APC) prepares for the 2026 governorship contest following the emergence of Hon. Bola Oyebamiji as its candidate, the party now stands at a defining crossroads: the choice of a deputy governorship candidate.
This decision will either consolidate the party’s path to victory or expose it to avoidable risks.
Oyebamiji hails from Ikire in Osun West—a zone that already holds the governorship seat. That fact alone makes geographical rebalancing non-negotiable. In previous Osun elections, any ticket perceived as lopsided has paid a steep price in voter enthusiasm, turnout, and post-primary unity.
But beyond zoning, the APC must confront a more practical political reality. Oyebamiji, though an experienced administrator and grassroots figure, is contesting his first major election. That makes the deputy slot not decorative, but decisive. The running mate must be someone who brings tested electoral strength, visibility, and the capacity to deliver votes, not promises.
Viewed through this lens, one constituency clearly stands out: Ife Federal Constituency.
Electorally, Ife is not a marginal player. It is one of the most densely populated constituencies in Osun State, with a voter register large enough to influence statewide margins. In tight contests, constituencies like Ife do not just contribute votes; they decide outcomes.
More importantly, Ife has shown a consistent ability to mobilize voters when there is a compelling local stake. Unlike fragmented constituencies where votes scatter across multiple interests, Ife’s voting pattern shows a higher tendency toward cohesion—an invaluable asset in governorship elections where margins matter.
Then there is the cultural factor, which only the politically naive would dismiss. Ile-Ife is the ancestral home of the Yoruba people. In practical political terms, that status translates into influence, symbolism, and emotional resonance that extends far beyond its boundaries. A ticket that acknowledges this reality gains not just votes, but legitimacy.
Some may argue for other constituencies on grounds of loyalty or internal party balance. Those arguments have merit, but elections are not reward systems; they are contests. Many constituencies that are politically loyal to the APC either lack the voter density to swing an election or are already adequately represented within existing power structures.
Ife, on the other hand, sits at the intersection of population strength, cultural authority, and swing-vote potential. Ignoring such a constituency at the ticket-formation stage would be a strategic blunder—one the opposition would gladly exploit.
The risk is clear. Sideline Ife, and the APC risks dampening turnout in one of the state’s most electorally productive zones, while handing the opposition a powerful narrative of exclusion. Embrace Ife, and the party locks down Osun East, balances its ticket, and strengthens its statewide appeal.
Politics rewards foresight, not convenience. The APC leadership has already demonstrated political maturity in producing a consensus candidate. That same maturity must now guide the deputy governorship decision.
In the final analysis, the numbers do not lie. The voting patterns do not lie. The political history does not lie.
If the APC is serious about winning Osun in 2026—and not merely contesting—it must follow the electoral math. And that math points decisively in one direction: an Ife deputy governorship candidate is not just desirable; it is strategically unavoidable.
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