By Lawan Musa Danlami (Baba Lawan)
November 2025
More than ten years after the abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls shocked the world, Nigeria’s nightmare of school kidnappings has evolved into a tragic and terrifying norm. The recent abduction of 25 girls in Kebbi State — alongside violent attacks in Niger State — is not an isolated event. It is part of a disturbing national pattern that reflects a catastrophic breakdown in the state’s ability to protect its people. If the government continues to respond weakly, the consequences will extend beyond tragic losses of life and education: Nigeria may be heading toward an electoral revolt, fueled by insecurity, economic hardship, and collapsing public trust.
A Crisis Rooted in Governance Failure
Scholars of insecurity repeatedly point to one uncomfortable truth: Nigeria’s kidnapping epidemic is the inevitable outcome of deeper structural problems. A study by Obidi and Aileku at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution argues that rampant poverty, unemployment, weak governance, corruption, and institutional fragility sustain the kidnapping economy. Likewise, an article in the NG-Journal of Social Development warns that insecurity is inseparable from a broader governance deficit — one in which the Nigerian state fails in its most basic duty: to protect its citizens.
These problems generate more than violence. They fuel political frustration, erode public confidence, and turn kidnapping not only into a humanitarian catastrophe but into a severe political liability.
Insecurity as an Electoral Time Bomb
Research makes it clear: insecurity shapes political outcomes. Scholars MacBen Otu Idam and Ikechukwu Eke Emeh demonstrate that during the 2015 elections, widespread fear subtly influenced voting behaviour — determining who turned out to vote and who they supported. More recent studies on the 2023 elections confirm that voter intimidation, harassment, and fear — partly driven by insecurity — suppressed turnout and damaged trust in INEC.
In essence, insecurity does not only threaten lives; it threatens democracy. When citizens feel unsafe travelling to polling units, elections become less credible, less representative, and more contested.
Economic Pain and Political Volatility
Kidnappings are not just a security issue — they have become a major economic threat. A Reuters analysis warns that insecurity has pushed over 31 million Nigerians into acute food shortages, as banditry drives farmers away from their land. The ripple effects are immediate: higher food prices, rising inflation, shrinking household incomes, and deepening poverty.
Ahead of recent elections, DW reported that inflation and insecurity topped voters’ concerns. When daily life is defined by fear, hunger, and unemployment, citizens become politically volatile — more likely to punish incumbents and more willing to vote for change, even unpredictably.
This dynamic also weakens the broader political economy: social trust declines, civic engagement drops, and many begin to view voting not as a civic obligation but as a last resort — or even a form of protest.
Insecurity, Education, and a Stolen Future
Few crises cut as deeply as the kidnapping of schoolchildren. Research in Kebbi State shows that insecurity has significantly increased the number of out-of-school children and disrupted educational service delivery. In Anambra State, studies reveal that the trauma of kidnapping directly undermines students’ academic performance and social development.
When children cannot go to school because of fear, the long-term consequences are devastating:
Loss of human capital
Collapse of social cohesion
Increased poverty
A generation denied opportunity
School Closures Are Not a Solution
The federal government’s decision to close 47 federal schools in high-risk areas may protect students temporarily, but it cannot and must not be the long-term strategy. Closing schools abandons entire communities, weakens local economies, and signals state retreat — the very outcome criminals desire.
Nigeria cannot afford an educational shutdown. Closing schools protects bodies but destroys futures. The only sustainable solution is to confront insecurity head-on.
What the Government Must Do — Not Only for Society, but for Its Own Political Survival
If the government wants to save both Nigeria and its own legitimacy — especially ahead of upcoming elections — it must pursue decisive, urgent reforms.
1. Confront Insecurity Directly — Not Symbolically
Deploy and empower community-based security networks, scale up intelligence operations, and strengthen early-warning systems in vulnerable zones. Temporary school closures must be replaced with aggressive security reclamation.
2. Protect Schools Through “Safe Education Corridors”
Invest heavily in secure school infrastructure, surveillance systems, fencing, and trained security personnel. Provide psychosocial support for traumatized students and teachers. Education is too important to abandon.
3. Address the Economic Drivers of Conflict
Support displaced farmers, stabilize food prices through targeted interventions, and expand job creation programs for youth vulnerable to recruitment by criminal groups.
4. Rebuild Public Trust Through Transparency
The government must openly communicate rescue efforts, arrests, prosecutions, and reforms. Visibility creates confidence; silence breeds suspicion.
5. Secure Elections Before They Are Compromised
INEC and security agencies must collaborate proactively to secure polling units, protect election materials, and guarantee safe mobility for voters. Unsecured elections risk widespread delegitimization.
The Stakes Could Not Be Higher
Nigeria stands at a perilous crossroads. The kidnapping of schoolchildren in Kebbi, Niger, and other states exposes not only a security crisis but a deep societal fracture, intensified by economic distress and eroding confidence in government institutions.
If the government continues treating kidnappings as isolated incidents, it risks:
A crisis of political legitimacy
Mass voter anger and electoral backlash
Low turnout and contested elections
Deepening economic collapse
A generation robbed of education
With elections approaching, the message is clear: failure to secure the nation is political suicide. Even leaders focused on re-election cannot afford to ignore insecurity. Nigerians will not reward a government that cannot protect its children.
This is no longer just about bandits or kidnappers.
It is about whether the Nigerian state can still keep its promises — and whether its citizens will continue to believe in it.
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Opinion