From the first day that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu walked into the Aso Rock Villa, he promised a bold new dawn for Nigeria — bold reforms, deep structural change, national security restored, poverty driven back, and Nigeria’s place in the world re-established. The speeches, the media centre releases from the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Media Centre and the fanfare promised a rescue operation. Yet today, more than two years into his tenure, a complex story unfolds: one of soaring expectations, simmering discontent, and a tug-of-war between narrative and reality. This is a story of three acts — the truth of what is really going on in Nigeria, the lies or misleading claims being made in the name of progress, and the propaganda machine that frames it all as triumph.
The Truth
It begins with the hard facts: Nigeria’s economy, its people and its peace are under pressure, and the numbers tell a sobering tale — far from the triumphant poster image.
Consider poverty. According to the latest available data from the World Bank, Nigeria’s poverty rate remains staggering: a sharp warning that the upward trajectory many hoped for has stalled or reversed. The Bank’s October 2024 brief reported that 30.9 % of Nigerians lived below the international extreme poverty line of US $2.15 per day in 2018-19. But even more disquieting, some reporting (e.g., The Africa Report) estimates that the share of Nigerians living below the national poverty line may have reached as high as 56 % (≈129 million people). In rural Nigeria, the struggle is deeper still: a May 2025 report noted the poverty rate among rural dwellers had soared to 75.5 %, while urban areas hovered around 41.3 %.
In plain terms: for millions of Nigerians, the promise of “renewed hope” remains just that — a promise. The burden of food, transport and housing keeps growing, and structural unemployment and under-employment are still the norm. The World Bank itself warns that despite reform efforts, “poverty remains widespread.”
Now consider inflation. While official year-on-year inflation figures have been high for a while, the impact on everyday life has been enormous: food costs rising, rents climbing, electricity bills soaring. Households report that the basic food basket has increased manifold. The challenge: even where nominal inflation slows, the base is so high that real relief is minimal. The World Bank in its October 2025 update noted that households spend up to 70 % of their income on food in many cases.
In short: The truth is that the structural foundations remain fragile. The economy is under duress, large swathes of the country remain in deep poverty, and insecurity continues to bite. These are not spin-worthy talking points — they are the unvarnished data of everyday Nigerian life.
The Lies
In contrast to those stark realities come claims, press releases, sound bites — narratives that present a brighter picture than what many Nigerians experience. Here is a closer look at some of the most persistent ones.
Foreign reserves are increasing — that is the headline. Indeed, under Tinubu’s administration Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves have reached roughly US$42 billion as of 2025. But this claim needs deeper reading. Much of the rise in reserves stems not purely from booming exports or surplus revenues, but from borrowed money, oil-backed prepayment facilities and financial engineering. For example, public sources note that the state oil firm and the African Export‑Import Bank (Afreximbank) had arranged a crude-backed facility totalling US$3.3 billion, of which US$925 million had already been disbursed.
In another example, reports emerged of a proposed US$5 billion oil-backed deal with Saudi Aramco, which remained delayed and uncertain. The upshot: yes, the numbers for reserves look better—but the underlying sustainability is questionable. It’s a lie by omission to present the headline increase as wholly “earned” rather than “borrowed”.
“Tinubu wants the Dangote refinery to prosper for Nigeria” — This is perhaps one of the more captivating items. Public-facing statements portray the massive Dangote Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. project as a national asset, aligned with Tinubu’s agenda of energy independence and value-addition. But the story beneath the surface is complicated. Political watchers and business analysts widely believe the refinery is viewed within elite circles as a competitive threat to older family-linked petroleum import/marketing businesses. In policy terms: the regulator and NNPC have repeatedly clashed with Dangote over domestic crude supply obligations, import-licensing parity and pricing. The effective message: one hand frames the refinery as national salvation, the other retains incentives for legacy import-oriented structures. While direct proof of family business conflict is rare in open-file records, the “open secret” status of the rivalry is widely discussed in Nigerian business/political circles. The lie here is the white-washed narrative of co-operation, when in fact there are policy skirmishes and commercial interest at play.
The Propaganda
Beyond truth and lies lies the machinery of presentation: the media centre releases, polished speeches, infographics, public events all crafted to portray the narrative of progress. In these moments the message is clear: “We are working”, “Nigeria is safer”, “Macro stability achieved”, “Numbers moving in the right direction”. But look closer, and the veneer cracks.
Take security. The President’s media centre regularly publishes statements of new operations, reorganisations of security commands, declarations of crack-downs. The implication: Nigeria is becoming safe again. Yet the ground story remains different for many. Fatalities persist, farmers in the North still flee fields, kidnapping remains routine. The propaganda line holds that “we are turning the corner”, while the truth is that the corner hasn’t yet been clearly turned.
In effect, the propaganda is the third layer in this story: it’s the layer that insists the narrative is settled, the crisis is behind us, the relief is coming — and that you should believe it because the numbers say so. But we’ve seen above that the numbers, when un-packaged, tell a different tale. So the propaganda works by amplifying what looks like progress, while hiding what doesn’t.
Tinubu As A Democrat
The image of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as a democrat—championing free speech, robust opposition, independent institutions and fair politics—has been carefully curated via his media centre and public statements. Yet, the recent trajectory of his administration tells a different story: a swell of mass defections from opposition parties into the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), a pliant National Assembly seemingly turned into a chorus of praise for the executive, and the increasing use of state-actors—such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the police and other security agencies—to silence critics, intimidate journalists and harass opposition infrastructure across Nigeria.
In the summer of 2024, thousands of Nigerians took to the streets under the banner #EndBadGovernance to protest ballooning costs of living and governance failures. During the demonstrations, at least 56 journalists were attacked or harassed while covering events, their cameras and phones smashed, some whisked away from scenes of live reporting. In the aftermath, the authorities charged 76 people, including 30 minors, with treason and inciting a military coup—most of them arrested merely for joining or witnessing protests. Meanwhile, opposition party offices were destroyed or shut down in states such as Ekiti, Kogi, Kebbi and Lagos; and the police in Kaduna moved to ban opposition rallies citing “security concerns.” These actions belie the notion of a thriving, pluralist democracy.
If democracy means that power checks itself, voices of dissent are protected, and institutions operate without fear of partisan capture, then the current pattern under Tinubu falls short. The orchestrated defections, legislative deference, punitive use of law enforcement against dissent, and suppression of the press all point in the opposite direction—toward centralised influence, reduced accountability and a shrinking public space.
Why This Matters
Why does this structure matter? Because millions — ordinary Nigerians, mothers, traders, farmers, youths — are living through the discrepancy between what is said and what is felt. Political legitimacy depends not just on growth rates or reserves but on relief in everyday life: food on the table, safe streets, decent jobs, fair access to opportunity.
When the “truth” is untreated and unaddressed; when the “lies” are taken as fact; when the “propaganda” frames the story as done and dusted — that’s a dangerous mix. It encourages complacency, hides accountability, and lengthens the tunnel of expectation.
Final Word
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu entered office promising to reset Nigeria’s course. The country is living in the shadow of that promise. The truth is clear: poverty remains high, inflation biting, and insecurity unresolved. The lies are bold: rising reserves sold as triumph, inclusive appointments portrayed as balanced, mega-projects framed as national salvation even as commercial interests loom. And the propaganda? It builds the narrative that the job is done or nearly done, when for many it is not.
If Nigeria is to move beyond the cycle of hope and disappointment, then what must follow is not just promise but proof; not just narrative but distribution; not just policy but impact. The story of reform must reach the market, the farm, the household and the street. Until then, the headline may say “renewed hope”, but the lived reality continues in the shadows of renewed hopelessness.
