Madagascar has plunged into a new chapter of political turmoil as Colonel Michael Randrianirina, leader of the elite military unit CAPSAT, declared himself President following the ouster of Andry Rajoelina, the island nation’s embattled leader. The development, which came on the heels of weeks of youth-led protests and government defections, has drawn sharp condemnation from the African Union (AU), which swiftly suspended Madagascar from all its activities, citing an “unconstitutional change of power.”
The crisis began in late September when widespread demonstrations—fueled by economic hardship, chronic power and water outages, and allegations of corruption—erupted across the country. The protest movement, largely driven by the country’s restless youth, dubbed the “Gen Z uprising,” quickly gained momentum and sympathy from security forces.
By early October, the tide turned against President Rajoelina as CAPSAT, the elite military unit that had once been pivotal to his own rise in 2009, switched allegiance to the protesters. The defection was soon followed by segments of the gendarmerie and police, fracturing the state’s security architecture and setting the stage for a military takeover.
In a dramatic move on October 14, Madagascar’s National Assembly voted overwhelmingly—130 in favor and one abstention—to impeach President Rajoelina. Within hours, the embattled leader fled the country aboard a French military aircraft, citing threats to his life. From exile, he rejected the move as “unconstitutional” and vowed not to relinquish his mandate.
With the presidency vacant and the country’s institutions paralyzed, the military under Colonel Randrianirina seized control, dissolving key state organs including the Senate, the High Constitutional Court, and the electoral commission, while leaving the National Assembly intact. Shortly after, the High Constitutional Court invited Randrianirina to assume leadership as “President of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar.”
Speaking to reporters, the 51-year-old military leader insisted that his action was not a coup but a “national duty” to restore order and refocus the state on its founding values. “We are not usurpers. We are patriots stepping in to save a collapsing nation,” he said.
Randrianirina has since announced plans for a transitional government expected to last 18 months to two years, promising to organize credible elections afterward. He further revealed that consultations were underway to appoint a Prime Minister and a cabinet of technocrats to lead the transition. His swearing-in ceremony is scheduled for October 17, to be conducted by the High Constitutional Court in a “solemn hearing.”
The African Union, reacting swiftly, announced Madagascar’s immediate suspension from all AU activities, reiterating that “the rule of law must prevail over the rule of force.” The United Nations, France, Germany, and Russia have also expressed deep concern over the development. While France called for a swift return to democratic order, Germany urged restraint, and Russia appealed for dialogue and avoidance of bloodshed.
Observers warn that the country now faces international isolation and potential sanctions, especially if the transition extends beyond the promised timeline. Domestically, there are fears of a backlash from loyalists of Rajoelina and pro-democracy groups skeptical of the military’s motives.
Born in the Androy region, Colonel Randrianirina previously served as its governor between 2016 and 2018. He gained prominence as commander of CAPSAT, an elite logistical support unit within the Malagasy military. In 2023, he was briefly jailed for allegedly plotting a mutiny but was released under a suspended sentence in early 2024—a history that now lends a controversial backdrop to his ascendancy.
The colonel’s defiance of orders to open fire on demonstrators earlier this month cemented his popularity among protestors and positioned him as a reluctant hero in a nation weary of political betrayal. Yet, the path ahead remains uncertain.
As the world watches, Madagascar stands at a crossroads—between the promise of renewal and the peril of prolonged military rule. Whether Colonel Randrianirina’s so-called “Refoundation of the Republic” ushers in genuine reform or another cycle of instability will depend on how swiftly and sincerely the country returns to constitutional democracy.