As inflation bites and poverty deepens, the President’s 15% fuel tariff looks less like reform and more like a death sentence for millions of Nigerians.
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu proclaimed “Renewed Hope” on May 29, 2023, Nigerians clapped — not because they understood what it meant, but because they wanted to believe again. After years of broken promises and hungry nights, the new president’s booming voice sounded like deliverance.
But two years later, the only thing renewed is hunger. The only thing multiplying faster than Nigerians’ despair is poverty itself. The country’s so-called economic reform is beginning to look less like a policy and more like punishment — a slow national strangulation administered with a smile.
And now, the 15% import tariff on petrol and diesel may well be the final nail in Nigeria’s economic coffin.
A Policy Introduced — Then Defended
It began quietly. On October 21, 2025, the Tinubu administration introduced a 15% import duty on fuel — and then defended it days later.
The Presidency called it a “bold and strategic step” to promote local refining, reduce dependence on imports, and strengthen Nigeria’s energy independence. But Nigerians didn’t hear strategy — they heard suffering.
The same people who once queued for hours to buy subsidized fuel are now paying almost ₦1,000 per litre, while public transport fares have doubled and food prices have gone through the roof. For a government that promised prosperity, Tinubu’s policies have instead delivered poverty on steroids.
Poverty by the Numbers
According to official data, 38.9% of Nigerians (about 87 million people) were poor when Tinubu took office in 2023.
Today, 56% — over 128 million Nigerians — live below the poverty line. That’s 41.8 million new poor people created under one administration.
Economists warn that with the new 15% fuel tariff, the rate could cross 60% by mid-2026, plunging even more households into what experts call “multidimensional poverty” — where deprivation is not only about money but about access to food, health care, and dignity.
Meanwhile, the national minimum wage remains ₦70,000, barely $42 a month — not enough to buy a week’s food for a family of four.
When the Prophet Becomes the Punisher
What makes this tragedy more painful is that Tinubu once predicted it himself — years before becoming president.
As a political godfather and economist-in-chief of Lagos politics, Tinubu once urged government to “widen the tax bracket, reduce people’s purchasing power, and boost government inflows.”
When public outrage followed, he claimed it was a slip of the tongue.
But today, Nigerians are learning the hard way that no tongue was sleeping — the prophecy has simply become policy.
A Cruel Kind of Triumph
In one of his first national television appearances after becoming President, Tinubu boasted of meeting an old friend — a wealthy businessman who once rode in a convoy of luxury cars but had since downsized to a small sedan because “fuel is expensive.”
Tinubu laughed triumphantly, as though hardship was a medal of courage. Nigerians were left wondering: what kind of leader finds pleasure in the pain of his people?
A man who celebrated fuel scarcity in jest is now the architect of national hunger — a president who seems to find comfort in the country’s discomfort.
The Great Betrayal
Ironically, Tinubu’s political rise was built on protest.
In January 2012, when then-President Goodluck Jonathan removed fuel subsidy, Tinubu and his allies were on the streets — leading massive demonstrations under the banner of “Occupy Nigeria.”
He called the subsidy removal “wicked and insensitive.”
But today, Tinubu has not only removed the same subsidy — he has added a 15% import tariff on the same fuel.
The man who once stood against oppression has now become its designer.
The protester has turned persecutor.
The reformer has become the very problem he once promised to solve.
Collective Capture, National Silence
Meanwhile, the political opposition has been cowed into submission.
From PDP to NNPP to LP, the ranks have thinned — many former critics now kneel at the altar of political survival.
It’s a collective capture of conscience, a kind of elite unity that looks less like patriotism and more like partnership in plunder. The few who still speak out are branded enemies of progress.
“Nigeria’s poor are bleeding,” says one activist, “but the opposition is busy taking selfies in Aso Rock.”
Experts Warn, Citizens Wail
Economists are unanimous: every new tax and tariff without wage reform is a direct hit on the poor.
With inflation near 35%, food inflation over 40%, and fuel prices nearing ₦1,000 per litre, even the middle class is collapsing into survival mode.
The government’s defense is simple — this is “short-term pain for long-term gain.”
But Nigerians are asking: Whose gain? The masses who can’t afford transport to work, or the few who import the fuel and enjoy government waivers?
The Dangote Refinery, once hailed as Nigeria’s ticket to cheap fuel, still operates in foreign exchange mode — selling refined petrol in dollars while Nigerians earn in naira. So, who really benefits from the 15% tariff? The refinery or the people?
Tinubu’s Economic Legacy: Pain Without End
Every economic indicator points to distress.
The naira dances dangerously near ₦1,700 to the dollar. Food prices have tripled. Unemployment is rising.
Even the informal sector — Nigeria’s economic shock absorber — is gasping for breath.
Ordinary Nigerians now live from hand to mouth, or worse — from debt to debt. A country that once dreamed of greatness now wakes up each morning only to survive.
The Questions Tinubu Must Answer
- Why impose a 15% fuel tariff on citizens already crushed by subsidy removal?
- Why celebrate hardship on national TV while families starve?
- How can “Renewed Hope” coexist with 128 million people in poverty?
- If the 2012 subsidy removal was wicked, what then is this?
- Why silence the opposition instead of engaging the people?
Until these questions are answered, Tinubu’s legacy will not be that of reform — but of regression, repression, and ruin.
The Final Blow
In the end, the government calls it reform; Nigerians call it survival.
But a reform that starves its people, taxes their misery, and mocks their pain is not reform — it is cruelty dressed as policy.
President Tinubu may believe he’s saving the economy, but he is burying the people. And as millions slip deeper into poverty, one truth stands tall above the propaganda: the coffin isn’t just nailed — it’s sealed.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached at [email protected]