The lawmaker representing Ido/Ibarapa East Federal Constituency and Chairman of the House Committee on the Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA), Hon. Aderemi Oseni, has stirred heated debate after vowing that the South-West will deliver no fewer than 10 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.
Oseni made the declaration during the inauguration of the Remi Oseni Committee of Friends (ROCOF) in Ibadan. According to him, the group is a non-political, non-religious, and non-ethnic grassroots platform with over 200,000 registered members across Oyo State’s 33 local government areas.
“We are building a strong network of committed Nigerians across the South-West who believe in the rebirth of this nation through the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Tinubu. Our target is 10 million votes, and with our structures on ground, we are confident this goal is achievable,” Oseni declared.
A Target That Defies History
While Oseni’s statement was received with applause by his supporters, the numbers have triggered scepticism. Since the return of democracy in 1999, the South-West has never produced 10 million votes in a single presidential election.
📊 South-West Voter Participation History (Presidential Elections)
| Year | South-West Valid Votes | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | ~4.36 million | Buhari vs. Jonathan – highly contested |
| 2019 | ~4.14 million | Buhari vs. Atiku – strong turnout in Lagos & Ogun |
| 2023 | ~4.25 million | Tinubu’s home region, but turnout dropped to ~27% |
Source: INEC official results
For Oseni’s projection to materialise, the South-West would need to more than double its historical output — requiring both record-breaking registration and unprecedented voter turnout.
INEC’s “Record Registration” And Rising Concerns
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has recently claimed that the ongoing Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise is recording unprecedented online pre-registrations, particularly in states like Lagos and Osun. Officials, however, caution that online pre-registration is only valid when citizens complete in-person biometric capture.
INEC has also admitted to discovering multiple and underage registrations in past exercises, warning that all suspicious entries will be cleaned from the register.
This has led to fears in some quarters that inflated registration figures could later be used to justify questionable outcomes at the ballot box. Critics argue that without transparency, Oseni’s 10 million votes promise could be read as political cover for electoral malpractice.
As one observer put it: “You cannot move from about four million votes in 2023 to ten million in 2027 without either a miracle or manipulation. The figures simply don’t add up.”
Opposition Reactions
Opposition voices have already described Oseni’s remarks as unrealistic. While they stopped short of outright accusations, many argue that such inflated projections risk undermining public confidence in the electoral process.
One critic noted: “Announcing impossible figures long before the election only plants suspicion in the minds of voters. If results suddenly reflect those numbers in 2027, it will be hard to convince Nigerians it wasn’t manipulated.”
Oseni’s Defence
Despite the controversy, Oseni insists the initiative is a grassroots mobilisation effort aimed at complementing Tinubu’s legacy, not undermining democracy. He pointed to ROCOF’s PVC sensitisation campaigns and door-to-door outreach as evidence of genuine voter engagement.
According to him, the group is anchored on values of accountability, justice, and sustainable development. He also highlighted Tinubu’s infrastructural reforms, citing oversight of major projects such as the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway and the Ibadan–Ilesha–Akure–Benin expressway as proof of progress that should motivate South-West voters.
The Bigger Picture
With less than two years to the 2027 elections, Oseni’s bold pledge has raised as many questions as it has inspired enthusiasm. Supporters view it as an energising rallying cry, while sceptics see it as a dangerous exaggeration.
What is clear is that achieving 10 million votes in the South-West would require not just unprecedented mobilisation, but also unshakable transparency from INEC to convince Nigerians the figures are genuine.
For now, Oseni’s Committee of Friends has succeeded in drawing attention — but whether it can deliver on its promise remains one of the biggest political questions hanging over the road to 2027