In a drama that reads more like palace intrigue than policy-making, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s recent public courtesies — most notably his attendance at the wedding of former Zamfara governor Abubakar Yari’s son in Kaduna — have rekindled furious questions about loyalty, payback and the fate of Nigeria’s once-powerful regional “strongmen.” Tinubu’s presence at that high-profile marriage has been taken by many as a blunt signal: old rivals can be embraced — but only on the terms of the moment, not as partners for power.
Now the political air is thick with the question the country’s political scalpel-men are asking aloud: can ex-allies like Abubakar Yari and Rabiu Kwankwaso — both influential northwest power brokers who were on cold terms with Tinubu during the 2023 run-up — honestly trust the president to keep any post-election bargains? Or will they simply be the next victims of Tinubu’s “use-and-dump” politics? The timing could not be sharper: Kwankwaso himself this week spelled out conditions for any return to the APC, a public reminder that alliances are transactional and fragile.
From Wedding Handshakes to Cold Shoulder: A Rapid Realignment
Observers point out the irony: some of the men who were once “not on Tinubu’s good books” in 2023 showed up in social proximity in 2025 — while others who loyally backed Tinubu remain conspicuously excluded from the inner circle. The pattern is striking: governors and kingmakers who can be counted on to deliver votes and street machinery are being sidelined, while a tightly knit “kitchen cabinet” of officials who depend on Tinubu for their political survival occupy the real power rooms. This, critics say, is purposeful politics: surround yourself with men who cannot survive without you.
Take the men who now populate the presidency’s closest orbit: figures such as Bello Matawalle (who crossed to APC and was later folded into the government), Femi Gbajabiamila (Tinubu’s Chief of Staff), and Nuhu Ribadu (National Security Adviser) — all of whom, analysts argue, rose inside Tinubu’s tent and whose fortunes are widely understood to be tied to his patronage. The implication: Tinubu will not risk sharing his inner circle with independent regional “strongmen” who can command loyalty and votes outside presidential patronage.
Rejected Strongmen: El-Rufai, Ganduje, Aregbesola — and the Price of Independence
Tinubu’s unease with independent power brokers has a recent track record. Kaduna’s Nasir El-Rufai, whose national profile and independent streak worried many senators and stakeholders, failed to secure Senate clearance for a ministerial post amid controversies and petitions — a very public rebuke that signaled limits to Tinubu’s tolerance for heavyweight, self-standing figures.
Abdullahi Ganduje — another northern big name — has also been pushed out of centre-stage. The long-standing Kano strongman who was once a force within APC has since been compelled to step down from party positions amid pressure and infighting, a fall that underlines how even senior party operators can be stripped of influence.
In the South-West, former Osun powerbroker Rauf Aregbesola says he was betrayed when Tinubu backed another candidate from the state — an episode that left a bitter rupture in a once-close relationship. Several journalistic investigations and analysts say Tinubu’s manoeuvres in Osun effectively sidelined Aregbesola’s ambitions and alienated him from the centre of power.
All of which feeds the narrative that Tinubu’s administration prefers pliable lieutenants to autonomous celebrities of the local political scene.
Kwankwaso’s Conditions — A Public Test of Trust
Rabiu Kwankwaso’s public conditions for re-entering the APC — widely reported in national outlets — are an explicit demonstration of the distrust now on display. Kwankwaso’s terms are not just about jobs; they are a demand for genuine, durable partnership, and for respect for the political capital he and his movement command in the North. That posture puts him in direct tension with a presidency that, critics say, prizes loyalty above independent local authority.
The Campaigners Who Were Never Rewarded: Tens of Thousands — or Five Thousand — Who Paid the Bills
Remember the campaign footsoldiers: during the 2023 run, party machinery and thousands of registered support groups — estimates at the time ranged between “over 3,000” and claims of “more than 5,000” registered grassroots associations — poured money, logistics and manpower into Tinubu’s victory. Many of those groups have loudly complained since that they were promised patronage and appointments that never arrived; activists and support-group leaders say only a microscopic fraction of those communities received any payoff. Punch reported on plans to harmonise over 3,000 support groups in 2023, while campaign organisers and regional reports put some groups’ numbers well into the thousands. Supporters themselves say the rewards were negligible — “less than 1%”, they claim — and that has produced a stew of grievance.
The Campaign DG — Once Central, Now Relegated?
The man once entrusted to steer Tinubu’s presidential campaign — Simon Lalong, appointed Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council — is a case study in how the glow of campaign control does not guarantee durable influence inside the corridors of power. Lalong’s appointment was widely reported ahead of the 2023 election. But since the polls, party watchers note that campaign captains have lost public visible influence relative to Tinubu’s inner policy team — a sidelining that fuels the complaint that campaign workers and their commanders were useful in winning the election but not in staffing the administration.
A Kitchen Cabinet of Dependents — Not Strongmen
The practical upshot is obvious: Tinubu’s “kitchen cabinet” is stocked with people who need him more than he needs them. That matters in a country where political alliances are currency. Prominent appointments have been given to political actors whose continued relevance depends on presidential patronage; conversely, household names who can organise votes at the grassroots — and who could conceivably mount independent power bases — have been kept at arms’ length. Political analysts read this as deliberate: never allow another strongman to command a self-sufficient political base within the federal executive.
So — Can Yari and Kwankwaso Trust Tinubu?
Honesty demands a blunt answer: history and the pattern of appointments suggest deep reasons for suspicion. Tinubu has demonstrated a readiness to:
- Embrace former rivals in public (weddings, rallies), yet leave the levers of power to a closely held inner circle.
- Block or allow only constrained comebacks by heavyweight figures (examples: El-Rufai’s troubled confirmation process; Ganduje’s fall from party leadership).
- Let campaign generals (and the thousands who bankrolled campaigns) languish without full reward, prompting loud complaints from grassroot operators.
If Tinubu’s pattern stays the same — and the domestic reporting, inside whispers and policy moves we’ve seen indicate it has — then the trust Yari and Kwankwaso would extend now would be tentative at best. The pragmatic calculus is brutal: for Tinubu, tolerating another autonomous regional strongman inside the engine room of the presidency would be to risk a competing centre of gravity; for the strongmen, accepting marginal roles risks eroding the very support they once commanded.
A Final Word — Politics of Use and Disposal?
Nigerian politics is cyclical, and alliances flip on electoral fortunes. But the last twenty-four months have hardened a narrative: Tinubu rewards loyalty that is absolute, and punishes or sidelines independence — even when that independence once helped put him in office. Whether Yari and Kwankwaso will be co-opted, placated with sinecures, or left fuming on the outside is now a high-stakes wager — and one that will test not just their own political judgment but Tinubu’s capacity to govern with a broad coalition rather than a narrow coterie.