By Mohammed Bello Doka
Strong indications that former Kano governor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is in advanced talks with the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) have triggered a fresh storm of uncertainty in Nigeria’s political landscape. The news, which has unsettled Kano’s already fractured political terrain, points to a dangerous gamble by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu that could end in betrayal, heartbreak, and chaos for both Kwankwaso’s loyalists and the entrenched APC establishment.
According to insider reports, Kwankwaso has been holding quiet discussions with APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, with a view to formally rejoining the ruling party. He has reportedly sent a letter to the party’s national secretariat, bypassing the Kano State chapter entirely—a move that underscores the deep distrust between him and existing APC structures in the state. His conditions, however, are bold and uncompromising: that his political protégé, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of the NNPP, be allowed to contest for a second term on the APC platform in 2027, and that he himself be accorded a prominent role at the national level.
While the APC’s national publicity director has dismissed the reports as “speculative,” political watchers know better. Kwankwaso is no stranger to political defection, having danced between PDP, APC, and most recently NNPP. But this latest move carries far heavier implications—it could determine who controls Kano, Nigeria’s most populous voting state, in the 2027 general elections.
For President Tinubu, who has built his career on ruthless political pragmatism, the temptation is clear: secure Kano’s millions of votes by embracing Kwankwaso and his formidable Kwankwasiyya movement. But that embrace would come at a steep cost—abandoning long-time allies in Kano, particularly former governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, whose camp remains fiercely opposed to Kwankwaso.
This is where the betrayal begins to take shape. Ganduje, already battered by corruption allegations and a waning influence, may be cast aside like an old pawn on Tinubu’s chessboard. His loyalists within Kano APC, who fought bitterly against Kwankwaso’s dominance, now fear being swallowed by the very man they spent years vilifying. Should Tinubu throw his weight behind Kwankwaso, the Ganduje faction could face political extinction, a humiliation that might trigger mass defections or even sabotage within APC ranks.
Yet Kwankwaso himself is not immune to betrayal. Those familiar with Tinubu’s political history warn that the President is notorious for using allies to achieve electoral victories, only to discard them once they are no longer useful. In this scenario, Kwankwaso may deliver Kano’s votes in 2027, only to find himself sidelined when the real power-sharing begins. For a man of his stature, such a betrayal would not only diminish his legacy but could also fracture the Kwankwasiyya base he has painstakingly built for decades.
The picture that emerges is one of mutual doom. If Tinubu sides with Ganduje, he risks alienating Kwankwaso’s massive grassroots following, virtually handing Kano back to the opposition. If he chooses Kwankwaso, he risks tearing Kano APC apart, triggering rebellion and disillusionment among his loyalists. Either way, betrayal is inevitable, and the aftershocks could weaken APC’s grip on one of its most strategic states.
Already, whispers in Abuja suggest that high-level strategy sessions have been convened to contain the fallout. Kano APC leaders recently gathered to reaffirm their loyalty to Tinubu and to declare their determination to reclaim the state in 2027. But beneath the speeches and photo opportunities lies deep unease. No one trusts the President’s ultimate decision, and every camp fears it will be the next to be sacrificed.
Analysts warn that this unfolding drama may become a textbook case of how power struggles destroy political parties from within. The battle for Kano is no longer about ideology—it is about survival, betrayal, and raw political arithmetic. And in that dangerous game, both Kwankwaso and Ganduje may find themselves used, discarded, and humiliated.
For now, Kano holds its breath. The ruling party’s unity in the state is hanging by a thread, Kwankwaso’s defection threatens to rip it apart, and President Tinubu sits at the center of it all—ready to decide who stays, who goes, and who ultimately gets betrayed.
The clock ticks toward 2027, and in Kano, no one is safe.