The Mathematics of Betrayal: X = Tinubu, Y = Kwankwaso, Solve for Disappointment

By Mohammed Bello Doka

In the Nigerian political equation, some variables don’t change — they just mutate. And in this current political cycle, one of the most troubling equations before us reads like a wicked joke from a cruel mathematician: X = Tinubu, Y = Kwankwaso, Solve for Disappointment.

We were taught in school that when two strong variables clash in the same formula without a common denominator, the system collapses. What happens when an immovable northern object meets an unstoppable southwestern ambition? The answer is chaos, betrayal, or both. And that, dear reader, is the real risk facing Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso at this defining point in his political career.

"A Man Who Dines with a Leopard Must Not Complain About Missing Fingers." — African Proverb

Kwankwaso is no novice. He’s a two-time Governor, a former Minister of Defence, a Senator, and most importantly, the architect of one of the most organized political cults in Nigeria — the Kwankwasiyya Movement. In the North, his red cap isn’t just clothing; it’s ideology. But now, whispers of a looming political alliance with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have begun to circulate, sending shockwaves through his base.

And rightly so.

Tinubu’s Political History: Where Promises Go to Die

If political betrayal had a headquarters in Nigeria, it would be located somewhere between Bourdillon and Aso Rock.

Ask Abdullahi Ganduje, Tinubu’s loudest cheerleader from the North who was handed the APC national chairmanship as a reward — only to find himself at the center of public disgrace, internal sabotage, EFCC embarrassment, and legal warfare. Tinubu watched. Tinubu said nothing. Tinubu moved on.

Ask Senator Kashim Shettima, the Vice President, who thought he would wield real power. Yet he’s mostly a ceremonial figure, carefully restrained and managed to avoid building a base or influence beyond the optics.

Ask Northern APC Governors, who helped Tinubu secure the presidential ticket. Today, many of them feel like used batteries — discharged and discarded. The northern block has been left to dry, with no serious appointments, no budgetary advantage, and no political leverage.

Even Nasir El-Rufai, a man never short of words, Nigerians eventually gave up trying to understand Tinubu’s political chessboard. His ministerial confirmation collapsed under mysterious forces, APC loyalists, stakeholders , colleagues and social media influencers wailed — yet Tinubu said nothing.

So, the question is: What does Kwankwaso think he’ll get that these men didn’t?

"Even the Goat Knows When the Rope Is Too Tight." — Hausa Proverb

Let’s break it down:

Kwankwaso commands the streets of Kano, while Tinubu rules the strategy rooms of Lagos. The former is beloved by the poor; the latter is feared by the rich.

Kwankwaso is a movement, not just a politician. Tinubu, however, builds dynasties — but only ones where he remains the godfather.

How can these two men share power when one must bow for the other to reign?

International Examples: Why Strongmen Don’t Mix

Politics is a universal game, and history is full of lessons:

In Russia, Vladimir Putin didn’t coexist with other power centers — he absorbed or destroyed them. Yevgeny Prigozhin of the Wagner Group tried to show independence; he ended up in a plane crash.

In South Africa, President Jacob Zuma and his finance ministers clashed over economic direction. Zuma wanted loyalty; those who gave him honesty were shown the door.

Even in the United States, Barack Obama didn’t pick a powerful rival like Hillary Clinton as Vice President. He picked Joe Biden — dependable, not dangerous.

This pattern is clear: strongmen don’t share power; they neutralize rivals.

"He Who Enters a Snake’s House Must Learn to Crawl." — Yoruba Proverb

If Kwankwaso believes an alliance with Tinubu will make him a national kingmaker, he might want to revisit his political arithmetic.

In 2023, Tinubu flirted with him during the build-up to the election. Kwankwaso, in a rare act of independence, refused to collapse his structure into APC. The result? He was punished post-election, denied the promised “juicy appointment,” and politically isolated.

Even his allies in Kano are being squeezed — Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf is constantly under fire, with federal institutions refusing to give him the breathing space to govern effectively.

So, the Real Question Is: What Exactly Does Kwankwaso Want?

Is it a shot at the presidency in 2027 under a Tinubu deal? Unlikely.

Is it protection for his Kano structure? Tinubu has shown no hesitation in sponsoring political chaos where it suits him.

Is it access to federal funding? Even that comes with chains.

If Kwankwaso enters that deal, he may not come out the same man. His political legacy — carefully crafted over decades — will be traded for short-term comfort and long-term disgrace.

The Final Equation

Let’s return to our original equation:

X (Tinubu) + Y (Kwankwaso) = Disappointment

Because X is a master strategist who doesn’t keep equals. And Y is a fiercely independent strongman who doesn’t take orders. So when X and Y enter the same room, the result is not power. It is implosion.

Closing Thought

In politics, “a man who sells his machete to the enemy should not be surprised when his farm is overrun.”

If Kwankwaso is wise, he’ll remember what made him great — standing alone, standing firm, and standing for the North.

Because in this game of betrayal, only the naive think the handshake won’t reach the elbow.