April 13, 2025
LAGOS — As the All Progressives Congress (APC) grapples with a simmering crisis threatening its dominance ahead of the 2027 presidential election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu faces a pivotal decision: replace National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje with former Nasarawa Governor Tanko Al-Makura to stem a wave of defections, or risk further unraveling the party’s fragile coalition. Insiders reveal a leaked memo suggesting Tinubu’s camp sees Al-Makura, a loyalist of former President Muhammadu Buhari and a founding member of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), as a potential savior to halt the exodus of Buhari’s allies to the Social Democratic Party (SDP). But analysts warn this high-stakes move could backfire, fracturing the APC’s unity and emboldening opposition forces led by defectors like Nasir El-Rufai.
The APC’s troubles began intensifying on March 10, 2025, when El-Rufai, the former Kaduna State governor, stunned the nation by defecting to the SDP, claiming Buhari’s “blessing” (Punch, March 14, 2025). His departure triggered a ripple effect, with former Kaduna commissioners, ex-Katsina APC chieftain Ahmad Kaita, and whispers of heavyweights like former Attorney General Abubakar Malami and ex-APC Chairman Abdullahi Adamu eyeing the SDP (Naija News, March 14, 2025; Legit.ng, March 22, 2025). Northern discontent, fueled by perceptions of marginalization under Tinubu’s leadership and economic hardships like soaring inflation, has turned the CPC faction—once the APC’s Northern backbone—into a powder keg. “The North feels sidelined,” a source told Leadership (March 14, 2025). “Buhari’s loyalists see the SDP as their new home.”
Tinubu’s camp is scrambling to douse the flames. A leaked memo, reported by Naija News (April 13, 2025), outlines a plan to install Al-Makura as APC chairman, replacing Ganduje, whose tenure since August 2023 has been blamed for failing to unify the party (Tribune Online, March 21, 2025). Al-Makura, a respected CPC figure from Nasarawa in the North-Central zone, is seen as a bridge to Buhari’s loyalists. His governance record—praised for infrastructure and cohesion (Blueprint, August 17, 2023)—and endorsement by CPC state chairmen in 2023 as a “unifier” (Daily Post, July 25, 2023) make him a compelling choice. Tinubu hopes Al-Makura can persuade wavering CPC members to stay, preserving the APC’s Northern voter base, critical for 2027 (Legit.ng, April 8, 2025).
The strategy isn’t without precedent. On April 7, 2025, APC governors, led by Imo’s Hope Uzodimma, met Buhari in Daura to urge his intervention (Vanguard, April 8, 2025). Buhari, however, remained neutral, reportedly telling governors that loyalists like Malami and former minister Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba should decide for themselves (Legit.ng, April 8, 2025). His indifference leaves Al-Makura as Tinubu’s best hope to rally the CPC without Buhari’s direct endorsement. Moreover, Al-Makura’s appointment could restore the North-Central’s influence, disrupted when Ganduje, from Kano in the North-West, took the chairmanship—sparking regional grievances over zoning (Daily Trust, July 31, 2025). North-Central stakeholders had backed Al-Makura in 2023 to maintain equity, arguing Ganduje’s selection set a “dangerous precedent” (Tribune Online, July 23, 2023).
Yet, the plan carries grave risks. Al-Makura, while respected, lacks the national clout to decisively halt defections. In 2022, APC insiders chose Abdullahi Adamu over him for chairman, citing Adamu’s broader appeal and ability to counter Tinubu’s influence (Guardian, February 20, 2022). Critics labeled Al-Makura a “regional candidate,” vulnerable to ethnic framing—a weakness that could limit his effectiveness (Guardian, February 20, 2022). If he fails to sway major CPC figures, the SDP’s momentum, fueled by El-Rufai’s charisma and Northern frustration, could prove unstoppable. “El-Rufai’s move has changed the game,” a political analyst told Punch (March 14, 2025). “Al-Makura may not match his influence.”
Almakura
Worse, replacing Ganduje could destabilize Tinubu’s grip on the APC. Ganduje, a staunch Tinubu ally, ensures control over the party’s machinery, vital for Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid (Tribune Online, March 21, 2025). His Kano base delivers electoral weight, and he claims credit for APC’s membership growth and off-season victories (TheCable, April 12, 2025). Removing him risks alienating Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) base, potentially sparking internal power struggles. Al-Makura’s past support for Tinubu was lukewarm—he lost his 2023 Senate bid partly due to prioritizing Tinubu’s campaign (*Blueprint*, August 17, 2023)—raising doubts about his loyalty. Primate Ayodele warned in 2023 that chairmanship changes could polarize the APC (Tribune Online, July 23, 2023), a prophecy now looming large.
The SDP’s growing appeal adds urgency. Positioning itself as a “national movement,” the SDP capitalizes on public anger over Tinubu’s “anti-people policies,” as claimed by its candidate Adewole Adebayo (Tribune Online, April 8, 2025). Economic woes—unemployment, inflation—amplify Northern alienation, driving defections beyond negotiable party roles (Naija News, April 13, 2025). Former minister Solomon Dalung cited ideological disillusionment after meeting Tinubu (Naija News, March 23, 2025), suggesting patronage alone won’t suffice. El-Rufai’s coalition talks with opposition figures like Atiku Abubakar, though faltering (Legit.ng, April 11, 2025), keep the SDP relevant, threatening to siphon more APC heavyweights.
Religious and regional tensions further complicate Al-Makura’s candidacy. His appointment could reignite debates over the APC’s leadership balance, as seen in 2023 when critics warned against a Muslim chairman and secretary (Vanguard, July 26, 2023). North-West stakeholders, loyal to Ganduje, might resist a North-Central shift, while Southern and Christian APC members could feel sidelined, fracturing the coalition (*Daily Trust*, July 31, 2023). “Balance is everything in Nigerian politics,” a party elder told Vanguard (July 26, 2023). “Upset it, and you lose trust.”
Ganduje remains defiant, dismissing opposition coalitions as “futile” (Linda Ikeji, April 12, 2025). But his failure to stem CPC alienation—evident in Northern grievances over appointments (Leadership, April 11, 2025)—undermines his case. Some APC insiders argue Al-Makura’s understated style could quietly rebuild trust, as seen in Nasarawa (Blueprint, August 17, 2023). Yet, his past losses for the chairmanship—to Adamu in 2022 and Ganduje in 2023—suggest limited elite backing (Vanguard, July 20, 2023). With Buhari staying neutral and economic discontent festering, Al-Makura risks being a band-aid on a gaping wound.
The deeper issue lies beyond the chairmanship. Defections reflect structural woes—Northern marginalization, economic hardship, and the APC’s struggle to balance its CPC and ACN roots (Naija News, April 8, 2025). Adebayo’s critique of Tinubu’s favoritism resonates with defectors (Leadership, April 11, 2025), and media narratives often oversimplify solutions to party crises (Daily Trust, July 31, 2023). Al-Makura’s appointment might buy time, but without policy shifts—say, inclusive appointments or economic relief—the SDP’s allure will persist.
Tinubu stands at a crossroads. Keep Ganduje, and risk more defections as CPC loyalists drift to El-Rufai’s SDP. Choose Al-Makura, and court chaos—diluting control, igniting tensions, and betting on a man whose clout may not match the crisis. “Al-Makura’s a good man, but he’s no miracle worker,” an analyst told Legit.ng (April 11, 2025). As 2027 looms, Tinubu’s gamble could either save the APC or hasten its collapse, leaving Nigeria’s political future hanging in the balance.
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Sources: Naija News, Punch, Vanguard, Legit.ng, Tribune Online, Blueprint, Daily Trust, TheCable, Linda Ikeji, Daily Post, Guardian, Leadership (2022-2025).
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