By Mohammed Bello Doka
In the intricate web of Nigerian politics, few names command as much respect, fear, and controversy as Mallam Nasir El-Rufai. His reputation as a fearless, intelligent, and strategic leader has made him a formidable force in national affairs. Yet, despite his achievements and political pedigree, he remains one of the most feared figures within the corridors of power, particularly among the inner circle of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
But why is El-Rufai so feared? Why do many within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) feel threatened by his presence? Is it his intellectual dominance, his ability to dismantle political structures, or his sheer refusal to bow to the dictates of political godfathers? The fear of El-Rufai is not just about his past; it is about what he represents—a politician who does not rely on the system but instead challenges it from within.
The Making of a Political Titan
Mallam Nasir El-Rufai is not a typical Nigerian politician. Unlike many of his contemporaries, he is not a product of political patronage but of sheer intellect, hard work, and results-oriented governance. A first-class graduate of Quantity Surveying from Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, with an MBA from Harvard, El-Rufai built his career in both the private and public sectors before emerging as a central figure in Nigerian politics.
His tenure as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) from 2003 to 2007 remains one of the most transformative periods in Abuja’s history. He enforced strict urban planning regulations, demolished illegal structures, and took on powerful interests—even at great personal risk. It was during this period that he earned the reputation of a no-nonsense reformer willing to fight anyone, including political godfathers, to implement his vision.
As Governor of Kaduna State from 2015 to 2023, El-Rufai introduced sweeping reforms, particularly in education, urban renewal, and governance restructuring. He sacked unqualified teachers, modernized Kaduna’s infrastructure, and took bold steps that many politicians would have avoided for fear of backlash. His governance style was efficient but ruthless, earning him admiration and criticism in equal measure.
The Role of El-Rufai in Tinubu’s Victory
Despite his independent-minded approach to politics, El-Rufai played a crucial role in ensuring President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s victory in the 2023 elections. He was among the key Northern APC figures who defended the controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket, arguing that it was a strategic move to secure the Northern vote.
More importantly, during the Naira Redesign Policy crisis under former President Muhammadu Buhari, which was widely seen as an attempt to sabotage Tinubu’s campaign, El-Rufai was one of the loudest voices opposing the policy. He fearlessly challenged Buhari’s government, exposing the hidden agenda behind the policy and ensuring that the APC maintained credibility in the North.
Beyond that, as a seasoned political strategist, El-Rufai used his vast network across Northern Nigeria to rally support for Tinubu, countering the influence of opposition parties. His contributions to the success of the APC in 2023 cannot be overstated. Yet, rather than being rewarded for his efforts, he found himself sidelined and eventually pushed out of Tinubu’s government.
The Fear of an Independent Political Thinker
The question then arises—why is El-Rufai feared by Tinubu’s inner circle? The answer lies in the very essence of Nigerian politics, where loyalty is often prioritized over competence and where independent-minded politicians are viewed as threats rather than assets.
Unlike 80% of the people in Tinubu’s inner circle, El-Rufai does not depend on Tinubu’s influence to achieve his political aspirations. While many around the president owe their political survival to his goodwill and patronage, El-Rufai is a self-made political leader whose influence is built on personal achievements, governance records, and intellectual depth. This independence makes him a threat to those whose political relevance is tied directly to Tinubu’s structure.
Why Tinubu’s Inner Circle Fears El-Rufai
There are several reasons why El-Rufai is seen as a threat to those in power today:
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His Intellectual Dominance
- Over 80% of Tinubu’s inner circle feel inferior to El-Rufai in terms of intellect and political sagacity. While many of them struggle with basic governance concepts, El-Rufai’s sharp mind, policy expertise, and strategic thinking make him stand out. This makes many in Tinubu’s government uncomfortable.
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His Fearlessness and Unpredictability
- Unlike many politicians who are careful with their words, El-Rufai says things as they are. He does not shy away from controversial topics, and he is not afraid to challenge even those in his own party. This makes him uncontrollable, a trait that threatens the power dynamics of the APC.
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His Strong Political Base in the North
- El-Rufai commands a loyal following in Northern Nigeria, especially among APC governors, traditional rulers, and Islamic scholars. His network is so strong that he does not need Tinubu or any other godfather to remain politically relevant.
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His Potential Presidential Ambition
- Many within Tinubu’s camp believe that El-Rufai harbors presidential ambitions, whether for 2027 or 2031. Given his competence and influence, he could emerge as a serious contender, potentially disrupting Tinubu’s succession plans.
Tinubu’s Inner Circle: Political Convenience Over Competence
Tinubu’s inner circle consists of individuals who have been elevated based on loyalty rather than competence. People like National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila, and others are completely dependent on Tinubu’s influence to function. Unlike El-Rufai, they cannot stand independently in the political arena.
For these figures, El-Rufai represents everything they lack—boldness, intellectual superiority, and political relevance beyond Tinubu’s shadow. Their fear is not just about El-Rufai’s capabilities; it is about their own inadequacies being exposed.
Rather than embracing competence, experience, and innovation, this inner circle ignores intelligence and capability at the altar of political convenience. This explains why El-Rufai was pushed aside despite his impressive track record.
El-Rufai Is Not the Only One Sidelined
El-Rufai is not the only victim of this deliberate sidelining of the best brains. Several other technocrats and competent individuals have been blocked from Tinubu’s government simply because of their potential political relevance. Tinubu’s inner circle fears competition and, as a result, prefers to surround the president with loyal but mediocre appointees who pose no threat to their influence.
This approach, however, is dangerous for governance. A government that fears competence and embraces mediocrity will struggle to deliver results. Nigeria is in dire need of visionary leaders—not politicians who are only relevant because of their loyalty to one man.
Can El-Rufai Be Stopped?
Despite the deliberate attempts to keep him away from power, El-Rufai’s influence remains strong, and his absence from Tinubu’s government has only increased speculation about his future political moves. While some may hope that he fades into political obscurity, history suggests otherwise.
El-Rufai has never been a conventional politician. He does not rely on appointments or party loyalty to stay relevant. His strength lies in his ideas, his strategic mind, and his ability to challenge the status quo. Unlike many in Tinubu’s inner circle, he is not a political puppet who can be controlled or silenced.
If history has shown anything, it is that leaders like El-Rufai do not disappear easily. Whether in 2027, 2031, or beyond, his return to the national stage is only a matter of time. The real question is not whether he will make a comeback, but how and when.
And when that time comes, those who once feared him will realize that keeping him out of power was never truly in their hands.