Oil prices clawed back early losses on Tuesday, defying mounting concerns over a looming U.S. recession and the impact of trade tariffs on global growth. Brent crude edged up by 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.46 per barrel by 0640 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $66.12 per barrel, signaling resilience in the face of market uncertainty.
The energy sector remains on high alert as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) weigh their supply strategy. "Brent at around $70 per barrel is a strong support level, and prices may stage a technical rebound," said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector lead at DBS Bank. However, he cautioned that OPEC+ could pause output hikes if prices dip below $70 for an extended period.
The OPEC basket of twelve crude blends stood at $75.16 per barrel, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day’s $74.98. Analysts suggest that while supply adjustments remain flexible, geopolitical factors could further complicate market dynamics. With the U.S. tightening its stance on Venezuela by revoking Chevron’s operating license and potential intensification of Iran sanctions, oil market players are bracing for volatility.
Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to shake global markets. His administration has flip-flopped on tariffs, imposing and then delaying duties on major oil suppliers like Canada and Mexico while escalating trade tensions with China. Over the weekend, Trump acknowledged a possible "transition period" for the U.S. economy but stopped short of confirming a recession.
“Trump’s tariff actions have triggered a wave of selling, as investors price in the risk of weaker demand growth,” noted Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.
With global markets on edge, OPEC+ and investors are watching closely, but one thing is clear—oil remains a high-stakes game, where politics and economics collide with forceful consequences.