Former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, has raised concerns over President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s dwindling support in Northern Nigeria, warning that history may repeat itself in the 2027 elections, much like it did for former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.
Speaking on the state of the nation, El-Rufai cautioned that the North, which played a pivotal role in ensuring Tinubu’s victory in 2023, is increasingly dissatisfied with the administration’s policies and governance style. He pointed out that just a little over a year into office, the relationship between the Tinubu-led government and Northern stakeholders has begun to fracture, citing growing discontent over economic hardships, unfulfilled promises, and perceived marginalization of key northern figures in governance.
Northern Discontent and Political Risks
According to the former governor, the situation bears striking resemblance to the period leading up to Jonathan’s electoral defeat. He argued that Jonathan, despite being a sitting president, lost the trust and support of the North, which ultimately led to a historic electoral loss to the then-emerging All Progressives Congress (APC) led by Muhammadu Buhari.
El-Rufai, a known political strategist within the APC, stressed that Tinubu and his allies in the South West are underestimating the political weight of the North in shaping electoral outcomes. He warned that if the current dynamics persist, Tinubu might find himself in a politically vulnerable position ahead of the 2027 elections.
Rifts Within APC and El-Rufai’s Own Feud
Beyond the broader political implications, El-Rufai himself has been at loggerheads with the Tinubu administration and key figures within the ruling APC. His recent public exchanges with presidential aides and some party members suggest a widening divide within the ruling party. Reports indicate that El-Rufai, who was once considered for a ministerial position but was dropped, has since distanced himself from the administration, raising questions about whether his warnings stem from personal grievances or a genuine assessment of political realities.
Political analysts have noted that El-Rufai’s warning is not without merit. The North, which backed Tinubu in 2023 largely due to strategic political alliances, has grown increasingly critical of the government’s handling of economic and security issues. Rising inflation, the removal of fuel subsidies without sufficient economic cushioning, and unresolved security challenges in the North are fueling frustrations among key stakeholders and the electorate.
Implications for 2027
The stakes for Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027 remain high, and El-Rufai’s statement underscores the urgent need for the president to re-evaluate his political approach toward the North. If the growing discontent is not addressed, analysts believe that a similar fate to Jonathan’s 2015 loss could befall Tinubu, making him a one-term president despite his political stronghold in the South West.
Observers say the APC must navigate its internal crises while also engaging Northern leaders and stakeholders to mend fences before it is too late. If El-Rufai’s prediction holds any truth, the road to 2027 may be far more turbulent than the presidency currently anticipates.
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