As Osun State prepares for the high-stakes 2026 governorship election, the political climate is ripe for intense competition, power struggles, and potential upheavals. With the influence of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, the return of Adegboyega Oyetola, and the incumbent Ademola Adeleke's efforts to solidify his leadership, the 2026 race is shaping up to be one of the most controversial and pivotal elections in the state’s history. These three politicians – Aregbesola, Oyetola, and Adeleke – are not just vying for the seat of power but for the soul of Osun, with each staking a claim to the state’s future. In this feature, we analyze their trajectories, the political dynamics at play, and the broader implications for the people of Osun.
Rauf Aregbesola’s Mixed Legacy: Development and Debt
Rauf Aregbesola served as the Governor of Osun State from 2010 to 2018, and during his tenure, he became a prominent figure in Nigerian politics. His time in office was marked by significant infrastructural development and modernization, including the construction of new roads, schools, and healthcare facilities. His government’s school feeding program, a key part of his social welfare initiatives, gained widespread recognition, attracting national attention. Additionally, Aregbesola made substantial efforts to improve the state's revenue generation, moving away from federal allocations and focusing on local resources.
However, Aregbesola’s tenure was not without controversy. While he implemented numerous projects, critics argue that the financial sustainability of his policies was questionable. Under his administration, Osun accumulated substantial debts, which placed a heavy burden on subsequent governments. One of the major criticisms of Aregbesola was the frequent delays in paying civil servant salaries, which led to widespread unrest among the workforce. During his second term, the state faced severe financial crises, and the inability to meet salary obligations became a focal point of criticism.
After his tenure, Aregbesola’s relationship with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) became strained, particularly with his former ally Adegboyega Oyetola. Aregbesola, who had been a staunch supporter of Oyetola’s gubernatorial candidacy, eventually found himself at odds with Oyetola’s leadership style. This discord culminated in Aregbesola's expulsion from the APC in 2023. Despite this, his political influence remains considerable, especially among his loyalists, who still hold significant sway in the state’s APC structures.
In a recent interview, Aregbesola’s ally, Comrade Rauf Adedeji, defended the former governor, stating: “Aregbesola’s vision for Osun was transformative, and his policies, though controversial, laid the foundation for future development. The current problems the state faces are not a result of his actions but of how the state managed its resources after his tenure.”
With his political future in jeopardy after his expulsion from the APC, Aregbesola’s next steps will be crucial. His move to possibly align with other opposition parties or rally disillusioned APC members could cause a significant shift in the dynamics of Osun’s political landscape.
Adegboyega Oyetola’s Redemption or Further Decline?
Adegboyega Oyetola, who served as Osun’s governor from 2018 to 2022, is another central figure in the 2026 gubernatorial contest. Despite a relatively stable administration focused on infrastructure and civil service reforms, Oyetola’s tenure was marked by an inability to connect with the electorate on critical issues. His failure to secure a second term in the 2022 gubernatorial election was a major blow to his political career, and his loss to Ademola Adeleke represented a shift in public sentiment in the state.
Oyetola’s tenure was characterized by a cautious approach to governance. While he focused on providing essential services such as healthcare and education, his administration struggled to address the growing concerns of youth unemployment and the state’s economic challenges. Additionally, his leadership style often appeared to lack the boldness that Aregbesola’s tenure had projected. This, coupled with internal divisions within the APC, contributed to his inability to secure re-election.
Despite these challenges, Oyetola’s political career is far from over. His appointment as the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy under President Bola Tinubu’s administration has helped to keep him in the political spotlight. This national position provides him with a platform to rebuild his political capital and strategize for a potential return to the governorship race in 2026.
Political analysts are divided on Oyetola’s prospects for a comeback. Some believe that the ministerial position could serve as a springboard for his re-entry into Osun politics, while others argue that his time may have passed. “Oyetola’s tenure was solid in terms of governance, but it lacked the resonance needed for the electorate. His return to Osun in 2026 will depend on how he addresses the internal divisions within the APC and how he manages his relationship with the people,” said political analyst Dr. Tunde Adewale.
For Oyetola to have a real chance in 2026, he will need to reconnect with the grassroots, rebuild trust within the APC, and ensure that the development agenda he started is carried forward. Additionally, his ability to manage rival factions within the party, including the one led by Aregbesola, will play a key role in his political comeback.
Ademola Adeleke’s Struggles: Can He Consolidate His Power?
Ademola Adeleke’s victory in the 2022 governorship election was a historic moment for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the state of Osun. His decisive win over Oyetola, under the banner of the PDP, marked a major shift in the state’s political dynamics. Known for his charismatic personality and popular appeal, Adeleke won the hearts of many Osun residents with promises of change and good governance.
Since taking office, Adeleke has faced the difficult task of living up to his campaign promises. His government has focused on revamping the state’s infrastructure, improving education, and tackling unemployment, but the results have been mixed. While his supporters argue that he is making progress, critics contend that Adeleke has struggled to deliver on his promises in a timely manner. Key sectors like education, healthcare, and youth empowerment have seen some improvements, but the pace of these changes has been slow.
One of Adeleke’s biggest challenges in 2026 will be managing his political relationships. As a newcomer to governance, he still faces resistance from entrenched political figures in Osun, and his ability to work with these factions will determine his political future. There are also concerns about his leadership style, which, while popular among the masses, has been criticized for lacking the depth and foresight needed for long-term state-building.
“Governor Adeleke’s charisma has helped him connect with the people, but he must now prove that he can govern beyond the applause. His administration has to show that it can tackle the tough issues that the state faces, including its financial sustainability,” said Leke Adedeji, a civil society activist and political analyst.
Adeleke’s performance in office will be scrutinized as the 2026 election approaches. While he has made strides in restoring hope to Osun residents, the question remains: will he be able to maintain the support of the electorate and overcome the challenges of governance?
Political Turmoil: The Tension Between Aregbesola, Oyetola, and Adeleke
The political landscape of Osun is increasingly shaped by internal conflicts, factionalism, and ideological battles. Aregbesola, Oyetola, and Adeleke all represent different visions for the state’s future, and each of them faces challenges within their respective parties.
For the APC, the fallout between Aregbesola and Oyetola is one of the party’s most significant challenges. Aregbesola’s expulsion from the party only deepened the rift between the two former allies, and the APC’s inability to unite behind a single candidate in 2026 could cost the party dearly. Meanwhile, the PDP, under Adeleke, faces its own set of challenges. While Adeleke is popular, his government has struggled to provide the kind of transformative change that many Osun residents had hoped for.
In the coming months, the political battle in Osun will only intensify as each faction works to strengthen its position and sway the electorate. The 2026 election will not only determine the next governor of Osun but will also be a referendum on the state’s political future and the kind of leadership that the people of Osun deserve.
Conclusion: The Battle Ahead
The road to Osun’s 2026 governorship election is paved with uncertainty, intense competition, and political maneuvering. As Aregbesola, Oyetola, and Adeleke battle for control of the state, the electorate’s decision will be shaped by their ability to deliver on their promises, manage internal divisions, and connect with the people.
With so much at stake, it’s clear that the 2026 election will be a defining moment for Osun’s future. For Aregbesola, Oyetola, and Adeleke, it’s a race to the top, but only one will come out victorious. Who will win the heart of Osun? Only time will tell.
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