Introduction: Democracy or Oligarchy?
Nigeria, the self-proclaimed giant of Africa, operates under a democratic system that, in theory, empowers the people to elect their leaders and determine the country’s political direction. However, beneath the surface lies an entrenched oligarchy—a powerful political elite that dictates the country’s governance, controls economic resources, and manipulates institutions to maintain their dominance. From military rule to civilian governments, the same faces, families, and networks have rotated power among themselves, leaving little room for genuine democratic progress.
Despite periodic elections, the fundamental question remains: Does Nigeria truly operate a democracy, or is it an oligarchy masquerading as one? The answer lies in the intricate web of power play that has kept the elite firmly in control of the nation's political destiny.
The Evolution of Elite Power in Nigeria
Nigeria’s ruling class did not emerge overnight. The foundation of elite dominance can be traced back to colonial rule when British authorities favored a select group of traditional rulers, military officers, and educated elites, granting them privileges and influence over governance.
At independence in 1960, power was divided among regional elites, each representing their ethnic and political interests. The first republic (1963–1966) saw a fierce battle among these elites, leading to political instability, widespread electoral fraud, and ultimately a military coup. The coup of January 1966, which saw the assassination of key political figures, including Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa and the Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello, marked the beginning of elite military dominance.
The successive military regimes further entrenched elite power. Generals-turned-politicians, such as Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida, Sani Abacha, and Muhammadu Buhari, consolidated wealth and influence, ensuring that political control remained within a small circle of individuals. Even after Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, these same figures continued to shape the country's political landscape, either by holding office themselves or by installing their loyalists.
Elections: A Game of Thrones, Not of the People
In Nigeria, elections are often less about the will of the people and more about who can outmaneuver the other in the power game. The political elite have mastered the art of election manipulation, using a combination of vote-buying, ballot stuffing, voter suppression, and judicial influence to maintain their hold on power.
The 2007 presidential election remains one of the most controversial in Nigeria’s history. International observers, including the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU-EOM), described it as deeply flawed, marred by widespread rigging, violence, and intimidation. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the declared winner, openly admitted that the process was flawed, an unprecedented confession by a Nigerian president.
Similarly, the 2019 presidential election, which saw Muhammadu Buhari re-elected, was heavily contested by opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar. Atiku challenged the results in court, citing irregularities and manipulation by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, as has become customary in Nigeria’s democracy, the Supreme Court upheld Buhari’s victory.
A critical aspect of elite control in Nigerian elections is the deployment of security forces to influence outcomes. During the 2018 Osun State gubernatorial election, there were widespread reports of security operatives intimidating voters and obstructing opposition strongholds. The rerun election, ordered by INEC, was widely seen as a tactical maneuver to ensure the ruling party retained control of the state.
Godfathers and Kingmakers: The True Rulers of Nigeria
Political godfatherism remains one of the strongest tools of elite dominance in Nigeria. Behind every major political leader is a powerful kingmaker who determines who rises and who falls. These godfathers control state resources, determine election outcomes, and dictate governance decisions.
One of the most notable examples is Lagos State, where former governor and now President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has maintained an iron grip on political affairs for over two decades. His ability to install successive governors—including Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode, and Babajide Sanwo-Olu—without opposition highlights the extent of elite control in Nigerian politics.
Similarly, in Kano State, political battles between Rabiu Kwankwaso and his rivals, such as Abdullahi Ganduje, reflect how elite power struggles define governance. The rivalry between Kwankwaso and Ganduje is not just about ideology but about who controls the vast political machinery of the state.
The case of Chris Ngige v. Uba (2004) remains one of the most striking illustrations of godfatherism. Ngige, who was elected governor of Anambra State, was allegedly forced to sign a resignation letter under duress by his political godfather, Chris Uba. When Ngige attempted to assert his independence, he was kidnapped, and an attempt was made to remove him from office illegally. The case exposed how political elites operate behind the scenes, controlling elected officials like puppets.
The Judiciary: An Enforcer or a Check on Elite Power?
The judiciary, theoretically the last hope of the common man, has often been accused of being a tool in the hands of the elite. While there have been landmark judgments that upheld democratic principles, there have also been numerous instances where judicial decisions appeared to be politically influenced.
The removal of former Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen in 2019, just weeks before the presidential election, was widely seen as an attempt to weaken the judiciary’s independence. Onnoghen was accused of failing to declare his assets, but the speed and manner of his removal raised suspicions that it was a politically motivated move to ensure judicial compliance ahead of the elections.
Similarly, the 2020 Supreme Court ruling in Hope Uzodinma v. Emeka Ihedioha, which saw the court declare Uzodinma governor of Imo State despite initially finishing fourth in the election, further fueled concerns about judicial impartiality.
The Economic Power of the Political Elite
Beyond politics, Nigeria’s ruling class maintains its dominance through economic control. Government contracts, oil blocs, and financial monopolies are awarded to individuals within the elite circle. The oil sector, the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, is controlled by a handful of politically connected individuals.
The case of Diezani Alison-Madueke, former Minister of Petroleum Resources, underscores the extent of elite economic control. She was accused of embezzling billions of dollars, but despite multiple corruption charges, she remains free, highlighting how the political elite protect their own.
Similarly, the Abacha loot, estimated at over $5 billion, was siphoned from Nigeria’s treasury during General Sani Abacha’s regime. Despite repeated efforts to recover the stolen funds, much of it remains unaccounted for, reinforcing the perception that corruption among the elite is rarely punished.
Hope for Change: A People’s Resistance?
While the elite have maintained their grip for decades, signs of resistance are emerging. The #EndSARS movement in 2020 was a landmark moment, as young Nigerians not only protested against police brutality but also against the entire political system. The movement exposed the deep frustration of Nigerians who feel excluded from governance.
The 2023 presidential election also saw a shift in political consciousness, with Peter Obi’s candidacy attracting massive support from young voters who were eager for change. Though the established elite ultimately retained power, the growing political awareness among Nigerians suggests that the status quo may not last forever.
Conclusion: The Battle for Nigeria’s Democracy
Nigeria’s democracy remains a battleground between entrenched political elites and an increasingly restless populace demanding change. While the ruling class continues to manipulate institutions, control elections, and monopolize wealth, the resilience of ordinary Nigerians offers hope for the future.
The road to true democracy is long, but as awareness grows and resistance builds, the grip of Nigeria’s political elite may one day loosen, paving the way for a government that truly serves the people. Until then, the power play continues.