By Mohammed Bello Doka
According to a reliable source, significant developments have emerged within the Axis of Resistance, revealing evolving positions from key regional players, including Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and Turkey, as well as increased speculation over Israel’s intentions. These dynamics are shaping the future of the Middle East amid ongoing conflicts and complex alliances.
Bashar al-Assad, under heavy influence from the UAE and other Arab states, has firmly rejected calls to reopen the Golan front during the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation. This decision includes a refusal to provide support to Gaza or the Axis of Resistance by opening any additional fronts. Assad’s position is seen as a shift towards moderation under Arab pressure, although it marks a significant departure from Syria's past alignment with Iran and Hezbollah.
In a particularly controversial move, the Syrian regime army killed five Hezbollah fighters and injured 50 others in a targeted airstrike on the group’s fighters in Homs. The Israeli army reportedly coordinated with Syrian forces to strike the Hezbollah fighters, who were attempting to cross the border to retrieve remaining weaponry. This deadly incident has fueled suspicions of deeper collaboration between Syria and Israel, further straining Syria’s relations with Iran and Hezbollah.
Moreover, Bashar al-Assad has significantly reduced Iranian military presence in Syria by 75%, signaling a clear departure from previous policies. This reduction includes orders for Hezbollah to withdraw from areas along the border with Palestine and dismantle infrastructure previously prepared for combat. Such moves suggest Assad is recalibrating Syria's foreign policy, likely under the influence of regional Arab powers who are seeking to reassert control over Syria’s political future.
Meanwhile, there has been a strategic shift involving Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Iran’s Quds Force. Reports indicate a communication took place between HTS and the Quds Force, agreeing to the handover of the Sayyidah Zaynab area. This deal, which facilitates the exit of Iran-backed fighters without resistance, reflects the growing complexities of the conflict and the shifting allegiances within Syria.
The unfolding situation is compounded by a series of intelligence leaks from the Syrian regime during the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation. These leaks reportedly targeted Hezbollah leaders in both Lebanon and Syria, aligning with normalization efforts among certain Arab states sympathetic to Israel’s cause. These leaks have created an atmosphere of mistrust, with some speculating that Assad’s regime is covertly working in tandem with Arab states to undermine Iran and Hezbollah’s influence in the region.
In a notable shift, the leadership of Hezbollah is now taking a different approach to Syria. Unlike previous years, Hezbollah has distanced itself from direct confrontations in the region, and Shiite communities in various areas are no longer perceived as under imminent threat. This shift may be indicative of broader coordination between Tehran and Ankara, suggesting a mutual interest in maintaining stability in the region despite the increasing tensions.
The situation is further complicated by the evolving role of Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force. Unlike his predecessor, the late Qassem Soleimani, who was known for his active leadership on the ground in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, Qaani has chosen to remain based in Tehran. This marks a clear strategic shift, signaling a more cautious and centralized approach to Iranian influence in the region.
Both Hezbollah and Iran have reportedly shown growing caution in deploying forces to Syria, viewing such an action as a potential trap designed to eliminate their influence. With the Syrian army retreating without resistance, these movements have raised concerns that a broader plot to weaken both Hezbollah and Iran might be underway.
In another significant development, both Hezbollah and Iran have rejected any plans to escalate the situation in southern Lebanon. The proposal to provoke a confrontation in the area, ostensibly to eliminate Hezbollah and Iranian forces, was decisively rejected by both groups. This marks a shift towards de-escalation in what could have been a dangerous confrontation in the region.
In response to these developments, Iranian media has altered its rhetoric, particularly regarding militant groups operating in Syria. While previously referring to groups like HTS as "terrorists," Iran’s media now describes them as "armed groups," signaling a shift in both diplomatic language and regional positioning. This change in terminology may reflect a strategic attempt to distance Iran from some of its more contentious alliances in Syria.
Reports also suggest that parts of the Assad family have fled Syria, with some members seeking refuge in the UAE and Russia. This exodus is seen as a potential sign of instability within the Assad regime, raising questions about its long-term survival and the feasibility of forming a transitional government amidst ongoing chaos and internal conflict.
Meanwhile, there is growing speculation about Israel’s intentions in Syria. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement on August 18 about Israel’s "small size" on the map, coupled with his March 25, 2019, recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, has fueled fears that Israel may seek to capitalize on the region’s instability to expand its territorial holdings. With Syria in disarray, Israel’s ambitions to secure more land, particularly in the Golan Heights, could come to the forefront of international concerns.
This shifting geopolitical landscape underscores the fragility of alliances in the Middle East, with Israel, Iran, Syria, and Turkey all jockeying for influence in a region marked by complex alliances and entrenched rivalries. The coming months will likely see further developments as these countries recalibrate their strategies in response to the ongoing conflicts and political upheavals shaping the future of the region.
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International