As pressure continues to mount on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from various quarters, both within and outside the APC, he must apply utmost caution in navigating this delicate operation of reshuffling his cabinet. This process could either strengthen or jeopardize the party’s prospects in the fast-approaching 2027 general elections. The President stands at a critical juncture, and every decision made in this regard will reverberate throughout the political landscape, shaping the fortunes of the APC for years to come.
It is important to remember that the current administration is already inching into its second year. The clock is ticking, and the political climate is gradually intensifying as the 2027 general elections draw closer. Permutations and realignments have already commenced, as political actors across the nation position themselves for what promises to be a fierce and highly competitive contest. As such, any appointments the President makes should not be based on oratory prowess, political grandstanding, or showmanship but rather on careful and calculated political expediency. The stakes are high, and the 2027 elections will be a tough battle, perhaps the toughest the party has ever faced.
One of the key concerns the President must address is resisting pressure from his so-called kitchen cabinet—a close-knit group of advisors and confidants whose interests may not necessarily align with the broader interests of the administration or the party. History is littered with well-intentioned leaders who fell victim to poor advice from their inner circles. Former Presidents, both in Nigeria and beyond, have been misled by those closest to them, leading to missteps and eventual political downfall. In Nigeria, for instance, the late President Shehu Shagari’s kitchen cabinet influenced many decisions that contributed to the collapse of the Second Republic. Similarly, in more recent history, President Goodluck Jonathan was often swayed by individuals in his close circle, which some argue accelerated his political misfortune in 2015. President Tinubu must avoid falling into the same trap, particularly as he reshuffles his cabinet.
Equally critical is the need for the President to ensure that his core base—his foot soldiers who have stood by him through thick and thin—are fully integrated into his cabinet and other key appointments. These loyalists are not only politically astute but are deeply invested in his success. They represent the faction of the APC that truly has the President’s best interests at heart. By sidelining or marginalizing these key supporters, the President risks alienating the very group that is most capable of securing his political future. Their grassroots connections and commitment to the Tinubu project cannot be overstated, and their integration into the decision-making process is paramount for the cohesion and success of the party going forward.
Among the prominent figures to consider integrating are trusted voices like Femi Fani-Kayode, the former Director of Special Operations during Tinubu’s campaign. Fani-Kayode is known for his courage and unwavering loyalty, and his influence, especially in countering opposition narratives, should not be underestimated. President Tinubu needs such trusted allies, capable of speaking truth to power, to fortify his administration. Beyond loyalty, the President must also bring in more politically relevant individuals with national and regional clout, such as Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor of Kano State and leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). While Kwankwaso has been linked to various political alignments, integrating him into the cabinet could bolster Tinubu’s influence in the North, a region crucial to his political survival.
In addition to Kwankwaso, the President must carefully consider the role of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai. A strategic mind with a wealth of experience in governance, El-Rufai could play a pivotal role in shaping the administration’s policy direction, particularly in critical areas like infrastructure and security. El-Rufai’s inclusion in the cabinet would send a powerful signal of the administration’s commitment to decisive leadership and reform. Furthermore, integrating influential figures like Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, the former Central Bank Governor and ex-Emir of Kano, could help bridge the gap between traditional and modern governance. Emir Sanusi’s vast experience in financial management and his deep understanding of Nigeria’s political economy would be invaluable to the administration’s efforts to address economic challenges.
Moreover, much of the media discourse has been dominated by rumors of potential defections from individuals like Daniel Bwala, Senator Shehu Sani, and Reno Omokri. While these figures may not have significant political grassroots structures, they wield considerable influence on social media platforms. In today’s digital age, social media voices play a significant role in shaping public opinion. Therefore, even though these individuals may not possess tangible political relevance, bringing them into the fold could help the President counter the opposition’s online narratives. However, this must be balanced with caution, as these personalities may end up being more of a liability than an asset in the long run. Their loyalty may be superficial, and the President should prioritize trusted, loyal allies who can support his long-term vision.
In fact, while it is important for the President to dismantle the opposition’s social media apparatus by bringing in individuals like Bwala, Omokri, and Sani, he must also ensure that their voices are complemented by those who are loyal and courageous enough to stand by him through thick and thin. People like Femi Fani-Kayode have already proven their mettle in this regard and should be fully integrated into the cabinet. This way, the administration can maintain a strong front, both in the real and virtual political arenas, while safeguarding its core base of trusted loyalists.
Perhaps the most significant consideration for the President as he navigates this reshuffle is the political calculus in the North. Regardless of the ongoing media campaigns and tribal jingoism from various quarters, the North remains the President’s major lifeline and support base. His victory in the 2023 elections was bolstered by strong northern backing, and this region is essential to his political survival. If the President loses the North’s support due to poorly calculated political moves, it will deal a serious blow to his chances of securing a second term in 2027. The North is not only a key electoral battleground but also a region that has historically played a decisive role in Nigerian presidential elections. Fortifying his standing there should be a priority for the President as he makes key appointments and strategizes for the future.
The political landscape in the Northwest is evolving rapidly, with the unexpected alliance of Nasir El-Rufai, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and former Emir Sanusi raising alarm bells within the All Progressives Congress (APC). This trio, known for their significant influence across the region, poses a formidable threat to the APC’s chances if not properly addressed. Ignoring this growing coalition could have far-reaching consequences for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's political aspirations, particularly as the nation prepares for critical elections. The emergence of this alliance has become a focal point, signaling the need for urgent strategic recalibration.
In Zamfara, Abdulaziz Yari’s political weight far surpasses that of the former governor and current minister,Bello Matawalle. While Bello Matawalle holds some influence, Yari’s dominance is undeniable, and with all due respect, the president must consider this as a key factor. Mending fences with influential figures like Yari should be a priority. The president must resist the temptations of surrounding himself with praise singers and flatterers, whose advice often comes with shallow insights.
In light of the forthcoming appointments, it is imperative that President Tinubu prioritizes quality over quantity, ensuring that competence, rather than political expediency, drives decision-making. The whispers of capitalists tied to global financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF—individuals who lack grassroots political relevance and struggle to win even in their polling units—should be carefully scrutinized. These appointees, motivated by primitive capital accumulation, may lead the APC into a quagmire if left unchecked. The president must avoid the allure of such appointments, focusing instead on individuals who understand the intricacies of winning elections and have the capacity to lead effectively.
Turning to Edo State, there is a widespread misconception that APC’s victory there reflects overwhelming popular support for the party or the president’s policies. This belief, however, overlooks critical factors that played a significant role in Governor Godwin Obaseki’s downfall. His alienation from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), coupled with his strained relationship with the Oba of Benin and the traditional institution, played a crucial part. Furthermore, Obaseki’s ongoing conflict with his deputy, Philip Shuaibu, and the unity within the APC camp under Adams Oshiomole, further contributed to his failure in the recent election. The low voter turnout should not be celebrated as a sign of APC’s strength but rather serve as a warning that the electorate’s enthusiasm is waning.
The APC, particularly its elite members, must rally behind the president by supporting the appointment of a competent and capable team that can not only deliver on governance but also secure victory at the polls. Should the party fail in this critical task and, God forbid, lose the election to the PDP, the consequences will be severe. The APC’s political class must brace for a humiliation far greater than anything they have ever anticipated, and the party’s future will hang in the balance.
In conclusion, the President must also be mindful of the consequences that could arise if he fails to secure the 2027 elections. Many in the APC political elite are already worried that losing power could open the door to widespread investigations and potentially expose corruption and mismanagement that occurred in the past. This fear is not unfounded, as political transitions in Nigeria have often been followed by intense scrutiny of the previous administration. For the APC elite, losing the presidency in 2027 could mean more than just a political defeat—it could signal the beginning of legal challenges and the unravelling of the party's long-held influence. This makes it all the more imperative that the President carefully crafts a strategy that not only secures his re-election but also preserves the unity and dominance of the APC moving forward.
Mohammed Bello Doka is the founder and National Coordinator of Tinubu Media Team, writes from Abuja Nigeria.
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