As the political winds begin to shift in Nigeria, a new narrative is emerging from the North: a calculated move to draft former President Goodluck Jonathan into the 2027 presidential race. This push, fueled by a coalition of northern elites, reflects growing dissatisfaction with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration. However, this movement is far from being solely a northern affair. Many of those calling on Jonathan to contest the 2027 election are prominent members of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), indicating that the momentum behind his potential candidacy is gathering strength across regional and party lines.
The dissatisfaction that has spurred this movement stems largely from the economic hardships resulting from President Tinubu's policies, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira. These measures, intended to stabilize the nation's economy, have instead deepened the struggles of ordinary Nigerians, leading to widespread discontent, especially in the North. This region, once a stronghold of the All Progressives Congress (APC), now finds itself increasingly disillusioned with the current leadership, prompting influential figures to seek an alternative.
However, the push for Jonathan's return to the presidency cannot be seen as solely a northern agenda. Prominent PDP leaders, or "bigwigs," are at the forefront of this campaign, recognizing Jonathan's potential to unify a divided nation. His previous tenure as president, from 2010 to 2015, is viewed by many within the PDP as a period of relative stability and inclusive governance. His efforts to address issues such as the Almajiri system and youth unemployment are still remembered fondly, and there is a growing belief that his return could help steer the nation back on course.
Yet, the political landscape within the PDP is complex and highly competitive. Figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike wield considerable influence within the party. Both men have their own ambitions for the presidency, and their power within the PDP cannot be underestimated. Atiku, who has contested for the presidency multiple times, remains a formidable force in Nigerian politics, while Wike's influence, particularly in the South-South region, gives him significant leverage within the party.
This raises a critical question: does Jonathan have the necessary resources and connections to bypass these influential figures within the PDP? The former president's appeal may be strong, but navigating the intricate web of PDP politics is no easy feat. Securing the party's nomination would require not only significant financial resources but also the ability to build alliances and garner support from key stakeholders across the country. In this regard, Jonathan's non-committal stance might be strategic, as it allows him to gauge the level of support he can muster before making any definitive moves.
Meanwhile, it is essential to consider that President Tinubu is still early in his tenure, having been in office for just over a year. While the current discontent is palpable, Tinubu has ample time to mend alliances, address grievances, and potentially turn the tide in his favor by 2027. Political analysts caution that the current arguments for Jonathan's candidacy may lose their validity as the political landscape evolves over the next few years. Tinubu's political acumen, demonstrated during his time as a two-term governor of Lagos State, suggests that he may yet find ways to stabilize his administration and regain lost ground, particularly in the North.
Moreover, Tinubu's government, though criticized for its initial economic policies, could introduce reforms and development initiatives that resonate with the electorate, thus reducing the appeal of a Jonathan comeback. The president's ability to navigate Nigeria's complex political terrain, manage competing interests, and deliver tangible results will be crucial in determining whether the current discontent solidifies into a lasting opposition or dissipates as alliances are mended and economic conditions improve.
The Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, has publicly expressed his willingness to step aside from his presidential ambitions if Jonathan decides to run, indicating that the push for Jonathan's candidacy is serious and gaining momentum. However, the internal dynamics of the PDP, combined with the uncertain future of Tinubu's administration, create a highly fluid and unpredictable political environment. Jonathan's potential candidacy could reshape the 2027 election, but whether it will be enough to overcome the entrenched interests within the PDP and the possibility of a resurgent APC remains to be seen.
As the 2027 election draws nearer, the pressure on Jonathan is likely to intensify. The coalition of northern elites and PDP stalwarts advocating for his return reflects a broader desire for stability and inclusive governance in the face of mounting economic and political challenges. Yet, the path to the presidency is fraught with obstacles, and Jonathan's success will depend on his ability to navigate the complex interplay of party politics, regional alliances, and the shifting priorities of the Nigerian electorate. Whether he chooses to re-enter the political arena or continue his international and humanitarian work, one thing is certain: Jonathan's legacy and the future of Nigeria's democracy are once again at a critical crossroads.
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