Nigeria Faces Setback as West African Countries Exit ECOWAS, Analysts Warn of Regional Fallout

By Mohammed Bello Doka

In a seismic development for West African regional dynamics, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have officially withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), prompting civil society analysts to raise alarm bells about Nigeria's standing in the region and its ambitions for a Security Council seat.

Prominent civil society figure Mr. Rafsanjani has been vocal in critiquing Nigeria's response to the situation, citing a lack of a cohesive strategy and emphasizing the critical role of diplomatic finesse. Rafsanjani argued that Nigeria's attempt to assert authority it lacks only serves to weaken its regional leadership, stating, "Nigeria is the greatest loser because it needs the support of these West African countries for its regional leadership."

Highlighting the absence of legal or constitutional authority for such assertive measures, Rafsanjani cautioned against a strict approach, urging a more collaborative stance. He pointed out that Nigeria's regional aspirations depend heavily on the support of its West African neighbors and emphasized the need for a nuanced diplomatic strategy.

"All you have done is to push for the return of the civilian regime in these countries as soon as possible. Now that these countries have walked out of ECOWAS, it is Nigeria who largely will lose," Rafsanjani added.

He underscored the interconnectedness of Nigeria's regional and international influence with the backing of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. According to Rafsanjani, these countries are crucial allies for Nigeria in its pursuit of a seat at the Security Council. The analyst stressed that the absence of these nations within the ECOWAS framework creates a leadership vacuum, potentially hindering Nigeria's strategic objectives.

"These countries have found out that they don't need ECOWAS to survive. They have been out of ECOWAS for several months, and life goes on. Their condition has not worsened without ECOWAS, so they can as well get out of that union," Rafsanjani remarked.

He further noted that the departing countries have not witnessed a deterioration in their conditions, prompting a critical reevaluation of the efficacy of ECOWAS in addressing shared challenges. Rafsanjani argued that ECOWAS has not effectively tackled issues like poverty, insecurity, and infrastructure deficits, leading these nations to question the benefits of remaining within the organization.

In conclusion, civil society analysts assert that Nigeria, in overplaying its hand, now faces potential isolation within the West African region. Urgent calls for a strategic reengagement with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have been sounded, emphasizing the need for Nigeria to recalibrate its regional diplomacy. As the situation unfolds, it highlights the intricate geopolitical dynamics at play in West Africa and the delicate balance required for sustained regional cooperation.