Nigeria has once again cemented its place as Africa’s most populous nation, with its population estimated at 242.4 million in 2026, according to the latest Worldometer data reviewed this Wednesday. The figure, drawn from the United Nations Population Division’s World Population Prospects 2024 revision, places Africa’s most giant nation comfortably ahead of Ethiopia and Egypt, which occupy the second and third positions respectively. The precise mid-year estimate stands at 242,431,832, up from 237.5 million in 2025, representing an addition of roughly 4.9 million people in a single year – the largest absolute annual increase recorded anywhere on the continent. Nigeria now accounts for 2.92 per cent of the global population and about 15.3 per cent of all Africans, ranking as the sixth most populous country in the world behind India, China, the United States, Indonesia and Pakistan.
Behind the headline figure lies a profoundly young nation. Worldometer records a median age of 18.3 years and a total fertility rate of 4.2 children per woman, well above the global replacement level of 2.1. Statistics compiled from UN projections suggest Nigeria will record around 7.71 million births in 2026, the third highest of any country in the world, translating to an estimated 21,000 babies born each day. The World Bank estimated the country’s population growth rate at 2.1 per cent in 2025, a pace that continues to add the equivalent of a mid-sized nation to the population every year. Urbanisation is advancing in step with the raw growth, with Worldometer estimating that 55.8 per cent of Nigerians, about 135.3 million people, now live in urban areas, with population density averaging 266 persons per square kilometre. Lagos remains the country’s commercial nerve centre and one of Africa’s largest cities, sitting alongside Kano, Ibadan and the federal capital Abuja as magnets for internal migration.
The continental picture underscores how far ahead Nigeria sits. Ethiopia follows with an estimated 138.9 million people and an annual growth rate of 2.53 per cent, while Egypt, North Africa’s most populous country, stands at 120.1 million. The Democratic Republic of Congo ranks fourth at 116.5 million, recording one of the fastest growth rates in the top tier at 3.21 per cent. Tanzania (72.6 million), South Africa (65.5 million), Kenya (58.6 million), Sudan (53.3 million), Uganda (52.8 million) and Algeria (48 million) complete the ten most populous nations on the continent. Africa as a whole remains the world’s fastest-growing region, with its population projected to surpass 2.5 billion by 2050 on the back of youthful demographics, high fertility and steady gains in healthcare.
Yet the authority of these figures rests on an uncomfortable foundation. Every current estimate for Nigeria is a projection, because the country’s last credible census was conducted in 2006. That exercise recorded a population of 140,431,790, comprising 71,345,488 males and 69,086,302 females. Two decades later, no fresh count has been taken. A census planned for 2023 was postponed indefinitely by the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, and the responsibility for setting a new date has since passed to President Bola Tinubu, who has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to a credible exercise without fixing a timeline. The consequences of that vacuum are far-reaching, affecting everything from planning and resource allocation to political representation and economic forecasting. As Nigeria marks nearly two decades without an official headcount, the gap between projected and actual numbers continues to widen, leaving the continent’s demographic giant to navigate its future on estimates alone.
Abuja Network News
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