by Mohammed Bello Doka
18 July, 2026.
As the 2027 elections draw nearer, a troubling campaign strategy is re-emerging from the political trenches of the North. The proponents of the continuity agenda are once again reaching for the cloak of faith, attempting to drape President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima in the garments of religious obligation. The message, whispered in mosques and echoed in political gatherings, is deceptively simple: vote for them because they are Muslim. But before any believer allows this cynical manipulation to guide their conscience, let us examine the cold, verifiable facts of what this administration has delivered to the Muslim Ummah and to Nigeria as a whole. The evidence is devastating, and it leaves no room for theological cover.
The World Bank's April 2026 Nigeria Development Update painted a grim picture of the nation's economic health under this administration. Poverty in Nigeria has risen steadily from 56 per cent in 2023 to 61 per cent in 2024, reaching a staggering 63 per cent in 2025. This means approximately 140 million Nigerians now live below the poverty line. Even more alarming, the World Bank's Country Partnership Framework for 2026-2032 revealed that 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty, with 33 per cent classified as ultra-poor and unable to meet even their minimum food requirements. The burden of this poverty is concentrated largely in northern Nigeria. The World Bank noted explicitly that "household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining".
The hunger crisis has reached catastrophic proportions. According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis, nearly 35 million Nigerians are projected to face acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season between June and August, the highest figure ever recorded in the country. The World Food Programme reports that 36.3 million people are food insecure, with 2.1 million in emergency phases. Save the Children International warns that among those facing acute food insecurity, two million people are projected to be in emergency levels while more than 10,000 people in Borno State could face catastrophic conditions.
Inflation, though officially moderated, has already done irreparable damage. Headline inflation peaked at 34.80 per cent in December 2024 before declining to 15.15 per cent by December 2025. Food inflation had peaked at a devastating 39.84 per cent in December 2024 before falling to 10.84 per cent. However, the World Bank cautioned that inflation remains high enough to erode purchasing power, and the cumulative effects of previous spikes had already weakened real incomes beyond recovery. By June 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics reported headline inflation at 15.91 per cent, with food inflation at 17.52 per cent year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation actually increased to 3.75 per cent, driven by higher prices of essential items including garri, beef, tomatoes, and yam flour. For the ordinary Muslim family trying to break their fast or feed their children, these are not statistics; they are daily tragedies.
The unemployment crisis is equally devastating. The State of the Nigerian Youth Report 2025, released by Plan International Nigeria in collaboration with ActionAid Nigeria, found that youth unemployment now stands at 53 per cent, translating to approximately 80 million young Nigerians without jobs. The report described this situation as the single greatest threat to the future of Africa's most populous country. The World Bank further projects that about 60 million young people will enter the labour market over the next decade, yet only about 14 per cent of employed Nigerians have regular wage-paying jobs, with most workers engaged in low-paying informal employment.
The security situation under this administration defies description. According to the Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database 2025 released by Nextier Advisory Ltd, violent conflicts across Nigeria claimed 4,654 lives in 2025, while 3,141 persons were kidnapped in 1,274 incidents nationwide. Banditry emerged as the deadliest driver of violence, accounting for 599 incidents and 2,724 deaths, a sharp increase from 256 incidents and 1,585 fatalities recorded in 2024. Kidnapping reached alarming levels, marking one of the highest figures in recent years. In the first half of 2026 alone, more than 1,500 people were reportedly kidnapped between January and April, with another 279 taken hostage in May. Between January and June 2026, at least 3,612 people were kidnapped across Nigeria, with the North West accounting for 55 per cent of all reported kidnapping victims.
The Muslim Ummah has been squarely in the crosshairs of this violence. In August 2025, bandits attacked a mosque in Unguwan Mantau, Malumfashi Local Government Area of Katsina State, killing 13 worshippers during Fajr prayer. In June 2026, armed bandits attacked a mosque in northern Nigeria, killing at least 27 worshippers as they gathered to pray. Also in June 2026, suspected bandits attacked a mosque during Maghrib prayers in Namama community, Giwa Local Government Area of Kaduna State, killing a young boy and injuring several worshippers. In February 2026, extremists attacked two Nigerian villages, systematically killing residents and targeting mosque attendees who responded to the call to prayer in the deadliest assault in months. In July 2026, a suicide blast at a mosque in Mubi killed at least 50 people. The Islamic Movement in Nigeria has rightly noted that banditry, kidnapping for ransom, and killings have become common, with the devastation caused by these security challenges being a source of profound concern. How can a government that cannot protect Muslims at their most sacred moments—during Fajr, during Maghrib, during Ramadan—claim to govern in accordance with Islam?
These are the facts. This is the record of the Tinubu-Shettima administration. And it is against this backdrop that we must ask the fundamental question: can Islam possibly be used to justify another vote for this ticket?
The answer is an unequivocal no. The primary duty of any Islamic ruler is the protection of life and property, a sacred trust that this administration has catastrophically failed to uphold. In Islam, the concept of Adl, or justice, is the yardstick by which we must judge our leaders. The Qur'an commands us to stand out firmly for justice, as witnesses to Allah, even if it be against ourselves, our parents, or our kin. When we reduce our electoral choice to the mere religious identity of the candidates, we abandon this divine command. Allah reminds us in Surah Al-Hujurat that the most honoured among you in the sight of Allah is the one who is most righteous, not the one who claims a particular affiliation.
The concept of Bay'ah, or the oath of allegiance in Islam, is a sacred contract between the ruler and the ruled, predicated on the ruler's ability to uphold the Shari'ah, protect the Ummah, and manage their affairs with wisdom and integrity. When a ruler fails to deliver on these core responsibilities, the contract is broken. This administration has overseen unprecedented economic hardship where 140 million people live in poverty, a security crisis that has turned our mosques into theatres of war claiming nearly 5,000 lives in a single year, and a level of hunger that threatens 36 million Nigerians with acute food insecurity. To argue that Islam requires us to renew this broken contract simply because the signatories are Muslim is to suggest that the contract is meaningless.
Corruption, another direct violation of the Islamic principle of Amanah, the sacred trust of leadership, has further disqualified this ticket. When trust is breached, the bond between the ruler and the ruled is broken. Imam al-Ghazali stated that religion and worldly governance are twins; governance is the guardian of religion, and any flaw in the guardian leads to chaos in the faith. A government that cannot protect lives, cannot feed the hungry, cannot provide jobs for 80 million unemployed youth, and cannot secure places of worship has no claim to Islamic legitimacy.
The Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, said that the best jihad is a word of truth before a tyrannical ruler. To stand silent while injustice reigns is to betray the faith. The clerics who sold us the Muslim-Muslim narrative in 2023 have been proven wrong by the harsh realities of the last three years. The North is bleeding, the people are hungry, and the state has failed in its most basic obligations. To vote for Tinubu-Shettima in 2027 is not an act of Islamic piety; it is an endorsement of injustice. The voter must use their vote as a sword of truth. It is time for the Muslim Ummah to rise and reclaim its dignity by standing against a government that has failed them, proving that we are not a flock to be herded, but a community of conscience demanding justice and accountability.
Mohammad Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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