Who Is Actually Weaponising Insecurity in Nigeria and Who Stands to Benefit?

by Mohammed Bello Doka 

19 June, 2026. 

While in opposition, Bola Tinubu blamed the government for insecurity. Now in government, Tinubu is blaming the opposition. In November 2014, he tweeted: "Why should any part of this country be under occupation? In any civilized country, Jonathan should resign." He accused the Jonathan administration of "lying about insecurity" and lacking the "capacity to protect Nigerians." He spoke of "the sea of displaced persons caused by the Boko Haram insurgents and the lies coming from Jonathan's administration." The man who once demanded a president's resignation over insecurity now tells Nigerians that insecurity is simply the work of his enemies trying to get rid of him. In April 2026, while receiving Plateau State stakeholders, he declared: "My enemies want to use insecurity in the country to get rid of me. But I'm a stubborn politician who refuses to go, and I will campaign for my second term." In May 2026, he blamed "saboteurs who are not happy about the reforms" for the killings, saying these "disgruntled elements" were trying to frustrate his administration. He specifically linked them to those whose "means of defrauding the country had been blocked" by subsidy removal and exchange rate reforms. He also accused the "cabal running fuel subsidy and foreign exchange markets of sponsoring terrorism." The President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is blaming his political enemies, saboteurs and cabals for the death of thousands of his citizens. If the APC truly knows that the opposition is behind the insecurity, do you think they will not arrest them, disgrace them and parade them on the media for all Nigerians to see? If the opposition is sponsoring terrorism and recruiting young people to cause mayhem across the country as Senate President Godswill Akpabio claimed in June 2026, why are these opposition leaders walking freely? Why are they holding press conferences? Why are they campaigning openly? Why is the government that controls the police, the Department of State Services, the military and every security apparatus in the country unable to arrest a single opposition figure if they are indeed the masterminds of the violence that has killed over 4,500 Nigerians in 2025 alone?

The pattern is consistent across the APC leadership. Vice President Kashim Shettima warned in April 2026 of "saboteurs undermining Tinubu's peace efforts" and "agents of chaos sabotaging every effort to build peace." Defence Minister Christopher Musa blamed local informers and community collaborators, stating terrorists survive because they receive "food, water and information" from the people—which he called their "oxygen." Former Defence Minister Mohammed Badaru Abubakar blamed "fifth columnists" who feed terrorists with intelligence. In June 2026, Senate President Godswill Akpabio alleged that the opposition was recruiting young people to cause mayhem across the country. He claimed: "When they realise they cannot talk about projects, performance, good laws, transformation... they have now resorted to paying small, young people, recruiting them to cause mayhem across the country." He further claimed that bombings would stop within two weeks after the 2027 elections because the violence is sponsored to distract the government. In April 2026, he said: "You are seeing insecurity today. It is even increasing because elections are approaching... As soon as elections are over, watch what happens. Within the first two weeks, you may not hear of any bomb blast because some people are sponsoring it to distract the government." The message is always the same: the problem is not the government. The problem is everyone else. If the opposition has the capacity to orchestrate bombings and kidnappings across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones, do you think they lack the capacity to win elections? If they are so powerful, so organised and so well-funded that they can destabilise the entire country, why would they need to cheat at the polls? Why would they need to sponsor violence when they could simply win? The contradiction is staggering.

The tragedy is that the APC does not even need to cheat. They control 31 out of 36 state governorships. They control the presidency. They control the National Assembly. They control the judiciary in all but name. They control INEC through an appointee whose loyalty to the President has been openly questioned. The Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria accused the Senate of a "short-cut" confirmation that bypassed the Senate Committee on Electoral Matters, calling the chamber a "rubber stamp." HURIWA went further, alleging that Amupitan's selection "is not about competence but control," chosen for loyalty to the President rather than credibility, warning of a politically motivated move aimed at influencing the 2027 elections. The Odua Peoples Assembly warned that the appointment could "undermine Nigeria's democratic stability." The Movement for Credible Elections, led by Professor Pat Utomi, Femi Falana and Oby Ezekwesili, demanded Amupitan step aside, declaring "it is evident that the hands presiding over INEC are, at best, under grave distrust and, at worst, compromised to elicit the credibility required for the conduct of the 2027 elections." With all this power, the APC still finds it necessary to weaponise insecurity. Why? Because they know that facing the Nigerian people at the polls, even with all their advantages, would be a catastrophe. The economy is in shambles. Fuel subsidies are gone. The naira has collapsed. Inflation is eating families alive. The only thing sustaining the APC's political fortunes is fear—fear of violence, fear of instability, fear of the unknown.

But the most chilling evidence of the weaponisation of insecurity comes from the Independent National Electoral Commission itself. On May 6, 2026, INEC Chairman Professor Joash Amupitan, during a visit to the Inspector-General of Police, warned that "the scale of insecurity across the various parts of Nigeria presents a threat to the conduct of fair election." He insisted that proactive security measures and "total security risk analysis" would be needed to identify flashpoints and safeguard voters, officials and the integrity of the process. Barely weeks earlier, Senator Abdul Ningi had raised a motion in the Senate warning that the scale of insecurity demands urgent and unconventional solutions, including the possible suspension of political activities in eight frontline states: Borno, Plateau, Bauchi, Benue, Niger, Sokoto, Kebbi and parts of Kano. "We cannot continue to think that because we are in Abuja, therefore this thing (insecurity) does not affect us," Senator Ningi told the chamber. Atiku Abubakar swiftly rejected the proposal, describing it as a plot to suppress and disenfranchise voters. "Let it be clearly stated: the right to vote and participate in the electoral process is fundamental and cannot be abridged under any guise," Atiku said. The constitutional framework does not casually accommodate the suspension of elections. Any such move would trigger a constitutional crisis of unprecedented proportions. And yet, the persistent emphasis on insecurity without equal urgency on concrete, transparent mitigation strategies raises eyebrows. Senator Ningi himself admitted that "excessive politicking" by political leaders has worsened the insecurity. Senator Ali Ndume warned that the government's emergency declaration may have triggered "revenge" attacks that are fueling the violence. The pieces are being carefully arranged. First, inflame insecurity through neglect and political manipulation. Second, amplify the narrative that insecurity makes elections impossible. Third, use the constitutional silence on postponement to justify extraordinary measures. Fourth, consolidate power. The playbook is not new. Democracies are rarely dismantled overnight. They are weakened gradually through apathy, division and the normalisation of exceptional measures.

And who stands to benefit from this weaponisation of insecurity? Follow the money. In December 2025, President Tinubu presented the 2026 budget with N5.41 trillion for defence and security. By April 2026, the National Assembly had jacked it up to N68.30 trillion overall. The Ministry of Defence gets N3.154 trillion. The Nigerian Army gets N1.504 trillion. The Nigerian Air Force gets N407.15 billion. The Nigerian Navy gets N443.92 billion. Over N13 billion—approximately $9.3 million at the official exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar—is allocated for arms and ammunition alone. In 2025, the government had budgeted N20.56 billion for the Nigerian Army for the purchase of security equipment, but only N1.46 billion, representing a paltry 7.11 percent, was actually disbursed as of December 31, 2025. Trillions are being budgeted. Billions are being spent. And insecurity is getting worse, not better. In 2025 alone, 4,518 people were killed in jihadist incidents across Nigeria, the highest toll since 2015, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Over 400 civilians remain captive in Borno State since late March. Schools are being shut down. Farmers cannot access their fields. Children cannot go to school. Families cannot bury their dead. And while Nigerians bleed, the politicians trade accusations and the contractors count their billions.

But who is actually receiving these contracts? In March 2026, the Nigerian Ministry of Defence signed a USD190 million deal with UK-based MARSS to deliver Nigeria's first fully integrated national defence architecture. The MoU was signed between MARSS, the Nigerian Ministry of Defence, and Nigerian companies MPS Mikopowers Ltd and APS Aegis Ltd. Who owns MPS Mikopowers Ltd? Who owns APS Aegis Ltd? The contracts are not publicly available. The beneficiaries remain shrouded in secrecy. In July 2025, Minister of State for Defence Bello Matawalle unveiled the DICON-Vanquish Armoured Personnel Carrier, built in collaboration with Vanquish Industries Ltd. In March 2026, the Nigerian Army acquired 15 locally manufactured Vanquisher Light Armoured Personnel Carriers produced by DICON in collaboration with Vanquish Industries Limited and the Nigerian Army's Command Engineering Depot. Who owns Vanquish Industries Ltd? What are their connections to the APC? In November 2023, Nigeria signed a €1.2 billion deal with Italian defence giant Leonardo for 24 M-346 fighter jets. In October 2025, then Minister of Defence Mohammed Badaru conducted an official inspection of Leonardo's defence production facilities in Northern Italy during a delegation visit accompanying President Bola Tinubu. Six of the 24 aircraft ordered are at advanced stages of production, with three already undergoing flight tests. The first six jets are currently being manufactured, with three expected in 2025 and full deliveries continuing through mid-2026. Leonardo will provide 25 years of logistical and maintenance support. Who facilitated this deal? Who are the local agents? What commissions were paid? The Nigerian public has no idea. And the APC has no intention of telling them.

The numbers are staggering. The secrecy is complete. The beneficiaries are invisible. But the pattern is unmistakable. In December 2025, the APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, and National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, accused "some political elements" of seeking to weaponise insecurity ahead of the 2027 elections. In February 2026, Senator Basiru framed the solution around the rule of law and state police as key to curbing insecurity. In April 2025, Enugu State APC Chairman, Chief Ugochukwu Agballah, blamed President Tinubu's "opponents" for kidnappings and killings. In May 2026, the Oyo State APC chapter blamed Governor Seyi Makinde for worsening insecurity, accusing him of "political showmanship." In February 2026, Edo State Chairman, Emperor Jarret Tenebe, defended Tinubu, arguing he cannot be blamed for the nation's security challenges. In November 2025, the Ondo State APC chapter called on the National Assembly to pass the State Police Bill to address insecurity. Even former National Chairman, Chief John Odigie Oyegun, broke ranks in May 2026 and blamed the APC-led government for failing to tackle rising insecurity. An APC chieftain, Farouk Aliyu, rejected blaming the opposition, stating insecurity is the work of "criminals and soldiers" that the government must confront. Former Lagos APC Spokesman, Seye Oladejo, expressed concern in June 2026 over a "steady attempt to amplify fear" among citizens. The party is fracturing. The contradictions are mounting. The excuses are wearing thin.

The question before Nigerians is simple: will you watch your democracy be dismantled in the name of security? Will you accept the suspension of elections because the government tells you it is too dangerous to vote? Will you allow the same people who have failed to protect you to decide that your voice no longer matters? If the opposition is truly behind the insecurity, why are they not in prison? If the government knows who is sponsoring terrorism, why are they not arrested? If the APC has evidence that political opponents are recruiting young people to cause mayhem, why are they not parading them before the media? The answer is obvious. The accusations are not meant to be proven. They are meant to distract. They are meant to frighten. They are meant to justify the unjustifiable. The warning signs may still be faint. The intentions may still be unclear. But history teaches that vigilance must begin long before certainty. If the conversation today is about insecurity, then tomorrow must be about accountability. If the concern today is feasibility, then the demand tomorrow must be transparency. And if any attempt, overt or covert, is made to truncate Nigeria's democratic process, it must be met with unified, lawful and resolute resistance. Because democracies do not collapse only when elections are cancelled. Sometimes, they begin to erode when citizens stop asking the hard questions. Today, the hard question is this: who is actually weaponising insecurity in Nigeria, and who stands to benefit? The answer is staring Nigerians in the face. The question is whether they will have the courage to see it.

Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected] 

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